Posted on 03/30/2016 4:47:20 PM PDT by sargon
In my humble opinion, the Republican party has effectively and totally destroyed itself with its relentless character assassination vendetta against its own frontrunner, Donald Trump.
There will be no recovering from this. Here are the only possible scenarios I can see, as we finish the primary season and move into the GOP convention:
Scenario #1: The only scenario that has the potential to expand the GOP demographic base permanently and beat Hillary is for Donald Trump to win the nomination and face Hillary in the general election, either with a clear majority or a near majority of delegates.
Scenario #2: Ted Cruz wins the GOP nomination fair and square, without jumping into bed with the GOPe. In that case, his narrow demographic base probably dooms him, but at least voter enthusiasm is preserved. Unfortunately, this scenario has already been obviated by the fact that the GOPe is demonizing Trump nonstop, infuriating his voters, and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly, which alienates Donald Trump voters who otherwise might be willing to support Ted Cruz.
Scenario #3: Ted Cruz wins the nomination with the help of the GOPe, either by getting a majority of delegates or by leapfrogging the frontrunner at the convention. This scenario still results in a candidate with a vary narrow base who likely can't overcome the demographic realities which accrue to the benefit of the Democrat party. Furthermore, this scenario also results in furious Trump voters who believe in their hearts that the nomination was stolen as a result of the constant character assassination directed at Donald trump.
Scenario #4: The convention is contested and someone other than Trump or Cruz is nominated. In this case, voters from both of the leading candidates are furious with the party, and enough of them stay home for Hillary to win easily.
So that is my analysis.
It looks very much to me like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is beginning to succeed. Unfortunately, that "anybody" is going to be Hillary Clinton, unless she's indicted, in which case any of the above scenarios could still, theoretically at least, result in a GOP victory.
Barring that, however, the only scenarios that could succeed are scenarios number 1 & 2.
And, as I have already noted, scenario #2 has already been destroyed by the GOPe, with Ted Cruz acting in full complicity.
Thus, conservatives' best hope is scenario #1, just like it has been for the last few months. It is the only scenario still possible that preserves voter enthusiasm, expands the GOP tent, and wipes out Hillary in the general election.
Since scenario #1 is itself becoming less likely now, IMHO, and due to the causes I've outlined, this leaves me with the inescapable conclusion that the GOPe has already screwed the pooch. The GOP will not win the White House in 2016 absent Trump at the top of the ticket. It could have won with Cruz possibly, but only in the case where Cruz remained an anti-Establishment candidate, and didn't adopt the Establishment tactics being used against Donald Trump. It's already too late for that, of course.
I'm convinced that the GOP will be content to remain in marginal power by controlling the House and perhaps still the Senate. That will allow them (with Hillary in the White House) to preserve the system as it is, where both parties scratch each other's backs, put up token opposition on various issues, and everybody just keeps enriching themselves at the expense of the People.
For doing what they have done, the GOP deserves to die a painful and lingering death. I, for one, am done with the Party, and will never register as a Republican again: not even to vote in their closed primaries. I'll stick with being a registered independent.
It saddens me very much to write these words, because, only a few short months ago, we had 2 candidates with the potential to lead a desperately-needed Revolution in American politics and culture.
But, alas, I believe it is not to be. The GOPe has overplayed their hand to the point where they have destroyed the party's chances for every possible scenario, except for the one case that appeared like it would happen: Donald Trump winning the nomination.
Now, Donald Trump bears some responsibility for this, as does Ted Cruz, for different reasons.
But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.
Yes, folks, I'm still hopeful that somehow something positive will come from the criminal and treasonous Establishment proceedings that we all have been watching before our very eyes. But I doubt it.
It looks like the Revolution will have to wait for at least another four years. That's good enough for the Establishment. As long as they can always delay the inevitable, the inevitable becomes impossible.
The hatred that I feel for the GOPe burns within me with a passion that will never die. Indeed, it only waxes stronger with each Machiavellian shenanigan they pull. It will be on full display at the GOP convention as well, of course.
I can't help but feel a profound sense of loss in looking at the state of affairs that we have arrived at.
No matter what happens at the convention, there will be large masses of GOP voters who will feel totally betrayed by the party leadership, and this will carry all the way through to the general election cycle.
All is lost, IMHO, and I say that as a realist, not a pessimist.
FReegards to all,
Sargon
The Uniparty has been on a slow march to erase the pretense of the continued existence of the two-party system for many decades. Doesn’t matter which electoral cycle.
The “NeverTrump” people are traitors... where was the “NeverRomney” crowd? that could have saved us...
You and I share a lot of the same ideas.
We are screwed. No way an R wins this fall, too many peeing in the well. If the leaders could join forces they would be unstoppable, but that cannot happen, not after the last couple of months.
Hello President Bernie Clinton.
I can’t disagree with your analysis.
Scenario #2 is out in any case, Cruz can’t win 1237 from where he’s at.
“So that is my analysis.”
Your analysis is right on.
Trump is the only one with a path to victory over Hillary.
I know that makes Cruz people mad, I LIKE CRUZ!
And the GOPe is totally to blame for this.
I would add: they will sabotage Trump, then blame Trump supporters for the upcoming loss to Hillary. And the MSM will play along with that explanation.
We’re toast.
I think it’s pretty good. Thanks for doing it.
“But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.”
Can we make a motion at the convention to kick them out of the party?
The scenario I see is that neither get the delegates they need. The GOPe will pick their establishment guy and offer the VP slot to Cruz…..to avoid a revolt.
VP’s have no power, they pretty much only serve to gain votes.
The GOPe establishment wins. The game is rigged.
"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"
"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"
"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"
"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"
"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"
Scenario 5- we’re F*****! I get the feeling we’re being played.
Mr. niteowl77
If the GOP had tried a tenth as hard to stop Obama as they are trying to stop Trump they wouldn’t have Trump to worry about now.
The GOP establishment deserves to lose every single federal election down ticket, we need to be entirely rid of these people. We already know the GOP leadership will do absolutely nothing to stop Hillary Clinton, so why should we reward them with our votes. Just vote libertarian or constitution, or whatever 3rd party is on the ballot that most closely resembles what you believe.
If there were any good whatsoever that would come from a GOP controlled congress I would think differently, but what is this difference with this GOP congress and the democrat congresses that came before it?
“The “NeverTrump” people are traitors... where was the “NeverRomney” crowd? that could have saved us...”
Interesting point. It is incredible Trump is doing as well as he is with such ferocious and constant attacks from all sides. I’ve never seen anything like this. The lack of fairness has changed my opinion of some people I once respected.
Trump even if I need to do a write in.
The missing ingredient in the core of your analysis is: The GOPe doesn’t want to lose congress, and will once again sacrifice the White House to keep it.
Boiled down: The GOPe does not intend on winning the White House. They intend on losing and will do whatever it takes.
So be it. I was shopping for a party before Trump announced.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.