I can’t disagree with your analysis.
Scenario #2 is out in any case, Cruz can’t win 1237 from where he’s at.
I agree that number two is not viable, and really, if Cruz is the nominee at this point he is completely doomed in the general. As soon as the Cruz/MSM/GOPe coalition is done twisting reality to bury Trump, Cruz’s new BFFs are gonna turn right around and put MistressGate on the frontpages 24/7, and I think there’s probably something there, based on his reluctance to affirm his fidelity. That on top of all of his GOPe pandering in the campaign and his uniparty Senate votes, I’ve lost all respect for Cruz. He’s a total, 100% sellout and fraud.
If Trump doesn’t win, the uniparty wins. Again. No shock there.
He can, but he won't, as a practical matter.
But I think it likely that Cruz will go to the convention with the greatest number of pledged delegates, and lots more than that who are pledged to other candidates on the first ballot.
I look for Cruz to win it on the second or third ballot. If not by then, the GOPe will take over, and God only knows who we'll wind up with. But I know it won't be Trump. Not in a million years.