Ebola May Infect Earth's Entire Population by December 1, 2015; 50-75% Fatal

self | 2014-09-30 | UBSOTOS

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Here is the math:

Ebola had infected about 4000 known cases by 2014-09-16.

Incubation up to 21 days.

Rate of new infections during incubation period: R2.0 (i.e. roughly doubling)

Population of earth: ~7.2 billion

Number of doublings from initial ~4000 to ~8 billion: 21

21 X 21 days = 441 days from September 16, 2014 = December 1, 2015

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

It's about the rate of the Black Death in speed and mortality, or like smallpox in the New World. There may be billions of unburied corpses. Survivors either have innate immunity or acquire it from having the disease. Like the Black Death after 1348, there may be lesser outbreaks for centuries but this is how species immunity is acquired. You can also see it happening today among honey bees and starfish.

I guess we'll know for sure whether it is more than a math exercise if the doubling rate continues for a few more months.

[Mount Athos]

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/qa-mmwr-estimating-future-cases.html

[txhurl]

There is a researcher (on threads here) that makes a compelling case that the Bubonic Plague was actually Ebola, after examining the texts of the physicians and survivors.

[Mortrey]

Why does the CDC own a patent on Ebola ‘invention?’

http://www.naturalnews.com/046290_ebola_patent_vaccines_profit_motive.html#

[House Atreides]

Anyone who believes this will come to pass, please contact me -— I have a bridge to sell in NY cheap.

[ClearCase_guy]

I guess I’ve missed those comments. The buboes of bubonic plague seemed like a big deal to the people in the 14th century. The artwork of the time shows buboes as a stylistic marker for plague infection. I’m not sure ebola presents like that.

[Perdogg]

Was this posting peer reviewed? The formula should be I = Pe^(kT).

[Kartographer]

BUT...But...but the FR Ebola experts told us Ebola would never darken our door.

[House Atreides]

Why does the CDC own a patent on Ebola ‘invention?’
***************************************************************

Hey, this is America; if you invent something, you own it.

Just kidding.

[SpaceBar]

And just like in The Masque of the Red Death by Edgar Allan Poe, the elites will think they are safe behind their walls.

[rktman]

You better go ahead and unload the bridge since it’ll be under water by 2020 anyway. LOL!

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

I guess it has now been Per-dogg reviewed ;-)

[Brian Kopp DPM]

that’s not going to happen unless it goes airborne, and that’s not a high probability. This virus spreads like hepatitis and HIV, by contact with body fluids, not like influenza or the common cold. Its not difficult to isolate using standard western practices of medical care and hygiene.

The problem in Africa is burial traditions that include touching and kissing the corpse. The corpse continues to shed the virus due to micro-hemorrhaging from systemic cytokine storm. But that comes late in the infection, and causes the rapid death by volume depletion, shock and organ failure.

[JennysCool]

Okay, so ... The whole continent of Africa is dead like several thousand times over? I missed that, dangit!

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Mastador1]

Well then screw all the save the whales crap! Live it up, use it up! We'll all be a dyin long before globull warming gets us.

Do I have to tag it?

[PastorBooks]

There is a difference in knowing the grave seriousness of this situation, and trying to divine the future with math.

There are many different ways this can play out. There is a great difference in the Western populations, where people know about germs, and tribal peoples in Africa. The spread of the virus will be completely different in the West than in the Third World.

The main danger in the West, really, is that many Third-Worlders liver here now and have brought their lack of understanding of germs with them.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

When I climb out of my hole in 2016, I’ll buy all of NY cheap ;-)

[ansel12]

There have been 26 outbreaks since Ebola emerged in 1976, all of them in Africa, and 25 of them ended in Africa, now we are in our 26th, and during all these decades and dozens of outbreaks, the total deaths are equal to about 2 days of AIDs deaths.

How do you numbers work if variables and new conditions, for instance Western medical and housing conditions, and educated populations become part of them?

Right now 9/30/14, it looks like Nigeria got control of and ended their outbreak, just like African nations have been doing for decades, how does that figure into your numbers?

Don’t you think your numbers are absurd?

[workerbee]

Stop that. One might think you're trying to contain abject panic or something.

/sarc