Posted on 09/06/2013 4:25:21 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson
There is, of course, an alternative to this strategy, requiring more risk and daring - one great sea flanking move directly to, or above the vicinity of, Naples, where a major amphibious force might be landed in an attempt to outflank all Axis troops below that point.
But such a strategy, though it might pay dividends in time if it were successful, is less sure and more risky than the step-by-step advance. Judging by past experience, we shall probably stick to caution.
Eisenhower famously told the press the date and location of the Sicily landing well in advance and relied on their discretion to avoid leaks. Is something of the same nature going on here? I just find it suspicious that Baldwin is unwittingly presenting such a fine piece of misinformation three days before D-Day at Salerno.
It is quite possible with Baldwin's fine sense of tactics and logistics that he puzzled it out for himself. Baldwin, unlike many reporters, understood the importance of logistics. As he points out in today's piece, there aren't any ports in the South capable of supporting a large army until you get to Naples with its fine harbor. He also has discussed several times the tactic of using, as he calls it, "hops" to advance in Italy's mountainous terrain, as Patton did in Sicily. So, he may have come to the conclusion on his own that the prize of the port of Naples would be worth the risk of a daring "hop" to a nearby shore.
Another possibility is that to be right so much of the time he must have had many highly placed sources and even innocuous tidbits of information could be put together to get the big picture.
I’m leaning toward Baldwin piecing it together from his own instincts and insight. A lot of what he has written about what he thinks will happen will actually happen, such his predictions a month ago of the course of war in Russia in the next year. I can guarantee he had no sources of inside information for that piece.
Also, keep in mind that whatever he wrote had to pass scrutiny of a censor. It’s possible he wrote this a month ago, but it wasn’t cleared for publication until the forces have almost hit the beach and its too late for the Germans to react.
I doubt that. The purpose of the piece is speculation on what the Allies will do now that they have invaded the Italian mainland. That happened three days ago.
I also noticed the last few days that the Southern Ukraine situation is deteriorating fast on the Germans.
I’m going to have to lend this to Baldwin’s intuition. The port at Naples is definitely more attractive than the one at Salerno and certainly looks like the more logical landing point (much like the Pa de Calais in France).
Interestingly too, is that Naples was one of the initial landing points discussed by Ike, Marshal and the War Plans Department. The initial strategic concept was submitted back on July 16th outlining an attack on Naples.
The target shifted south to Salerno based in large by the range of the single engine fighters they had available in the theater at the time. A month later on August 16th, Ike had made his decision and pressed forward with the decision to land at Salerno instead of Naples.
The German 9th Army was mauled in the Orel salient but Model withdrew it intact and right now the Soviets are leaving it alone. Second Army, always a weak formation, did not take part in Citadelle but now Cherniakovksy’s 60th Army is cutting through it and driving on Kiev. 4th Panzer Army, exhausted in the July/August fighting, has been chopped into 3 pieces and is being driven to the west. 8th Army, f/k/a Det. Kempf, along with 1st Panzer Army, are not being pressed hard. Tolbukhin’s diversionary attack along the Mius River in late July badly weakened an already thin 6th Army. Now he is attacking for real and 6th Army is on the ropes. Some of it’s units are fighting out of encirclemnt along the sea of Azov. Most of the German troops will get back to the next defensive line, but there are too few of them and no haevy weapons to hold any line.
In short, the Soviets have inflicted losses on the Germans that they cannot replace. And now the Germans are past the tipping point where they can no longer effectively defend themselves.
We have talked about Ms. Tuchman before. She was essentially a Soviet agent of influence for decades from the 1930’s. This could hardly have been unwitting on her part as she had so many intimate connections with Soviet agents. It is one of the oddities of the literary world that she was taken so seriously by the mainstream media.
Even more than just 11 divisions tying down 20.. As Henkster pointed out in post 11 this invasion demoralized Hitler’s other ‘allies’. They gave him less support and there was more unrest. This robbed Germany of other divisions. Also they had to spend more and more manpower putting down uprisings. The number of Nazi troops needed to hold the Balkans and Greece increased a lot from 1942 to 1944.
This is around the time it dawns on those who were buying NAZI propaganda that the end might really be coming.
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