I’m leaning toward Baldwin piecing it together from his own instincts and insight. A lot of what he has written about what he thinks will happen will actually happen, such his predictions a month ago of the course of war in Russia in the next year. I can guarantee he had no sources of inside information for that piece.
Also, keep in mind that whatever he wrote had to pass scrutiny of a censor. It’s possible he wrote this a month ago, but it wasn’t cleared for publication until the forces have almost hit the beach and its too late for the Germans to react.
I doubt that. The purpose of the piece is speculation on what the Allies will do now that they have invaded the Italian mainland. That happened three days ago.
I also noticed the last few days that the Southern Ukraine situation is deteriorating fast on the Germans.