The Campaign Made No Difference

Dick Morris ^ | November 10, 2012 | Dick Morris

[nathanbedford]

The debates, the conventions, the storm coverage, Benghazi, the state of the economy, jobs data and all other events that affected all fifty states mattered. But the paid media, the in-person campaigning in swing states, and the massive ground game deployed by both sides accomplished nothing. Obama lost all the votes he was going to lose anyway in the swing states and Romney gained of the votes he was going to gain anyway in the swing states.

[BroJoeK]

nathanbedford: "This is the second article to appear within a few hours arguing in effect that the election result was baked in the cake and the campaigns altered destiny very little or not at all."

Something is wrong with this picture.
Consider the following numbers (from Wikipedia):

• 2004 Bush received 62 million votes (v. 59 million for Kerry).

• 2008 McCain received 59.9 million votes (v. 69.5 million for Obama) = McCain got 2.1 million fewer than Bush.

• 2012 Romney received 58.6 million votes (v. 61.8 million for Obama) = Romney got 1.3 million fewer than McCain.

I have not seen a breakdown, state by state, of 2008 vs. 2012, but everything suggests that very small numbers would have made a big difference.

So where did our previous votes go?
Who were those people, and what did they do in 2008 and 2012?

Seems to me that if we can't get our own voters to vote for our guy, then how can we ever convince more liberal-leaning ethnic, and other defined groups, that free-dom is better than Big Government's free-stuff.

Might I suggest one answer:

• In 2004 Libertarians received 400,000 votes.
  
• In 2008 Libertarians received 500,000 votes.
  
• In 2012 Libertarians received 1.2 million votes.

So how many of those came from critical swing states?

[Berean]

Thank you. I feel like we're in the Twilight Zone here.

The evidence that this election was stolen in the swing states and by suppressing the military vote is overwhelming. People showed up. R votes were thrown out, D votes added. Look at the way the vote went down in the uncontested states, both red and blue. We didn't lose an honest election.

Why the hell are we even talking about what the GOP needs to do to be relevant or win elections? If the demonrats are allowed to get away with this it doesn't matter how we campaign or with who. They'll steal it anyway. Even with the MSM screwing the country blind, if this election was even close to fair we won it.

This self flagellation by conservatives is bullish*t. If we won't stand up to this now we are just wasting our time and playing into their hands. Changing our convictions and trashing each other is just an added bonus for these criminals and their minions. Please, for the love of God and Country, for our posterity and for freedom's sake, wake up.

[ConservativeDude]

We do not yet know. You are quite right.

[sirchtruth]

BS! BS! BS! My goodness political science is so FOS it's not even funny! Here's what it sounds like: If the sky is up and the ground is down, some PS asshat will come along and say, but the mountains go up! It's ridiculous!

rino's lose because their message is un-respected! Romney can say all he wants he believes in whatever, but people sense it is not true and everyone knows he's flipped on a dime to try to be someone he's not. Just like McCain tried.

People can sense this and it's why he lost. If he really was the opposite of Obama and proved it, he would have had more chance of winning. Romney lost because enough "conservatives" stayed home.

You can't win when you're fighting both yourself AND the dem/MSM.

[carton253]

This “we failed to get the vote out” really bothers me.

1) Who, in this country, did not know it was election day?
2) Who, in this county, did not realize what was at stake?

ORCA crashing did not lose the election... People not giving a crap about their own future to do something about it did. So let’s put the blame where it belongs. In the lap of everyone who stayed home.

[sirchtruth]

Dick Morris really needs to be put on a back burner along with Barone and all the others who predicted a 310+ electoral victory.

He's should have lost all credibility years ago!

I will say one thing...I do not think there is any question it appeared Romney had the momentum.

[TomGuy]

I posted this in another thread:

Nielson ratings showed about a 6 million drop in election night viewers from 2008 to 2012.

==

Romney lost

VA by about 110k, out of 3.69 million or by about 3%
OH by about 100k, out of 5.29 million or by about 2%
PA by about 280k, out of 5.53 million or by about 5%
IA by about 90k, out of 1.54 million or by nearly 6%
CO by about 100k, out of 2.36 million or by about 4%

==

The overall totals so far are

Obama 61.7 million (51.3%) for 2012 and 69.5 million (53.7%) for 2008
Romney 58.5 million (48.7%) for 2012 and 59.9 million (McCain 46.3%) for 2008

Total 120.2 million for 2012 and 129.4 million for 2008

==

It would seem that several of the ‘swing states’ were not such swing states afterall.

==

Without substantial proof, voter fraud will be difficult to prove. The percentages in the swing states Obama won seem fairly consistent.

[sirchtruth]

People not giving a crap about their own future to do something about it did. So let’s put the blame where it belongs. In the lap of everyone who stayed home.

That's right! rino's are losers because people have principles. Losers in the last 5 or 6 elections. You'd imagine at some point people like you and others would get a clue!

You may not like it, but the facts are rinos are losers.

Btw, just so you know I was amendment about NO MORE RINOS, but decided this election was too important and went against my principles. Not that I regret my vote, but I should have known better and fought harder for a conservative!

It's over for me. I am no longer a republican.

[SeminoleCounty]

The GOP can forget winning elections if they pander for Illegal Alien Amnesty

I am so tired of Liberals pushing Illegal Alien Amnesty...and Liberals in GOP Media pushing the “Hispanic Vote Myth”

You get more votes from moderate white Democrats with a strong National Security/Secure Norders/100% Deportation platform...than you get Hispanic votes from passing Illegal Alien Amnesty.

Fact is...Obama got 40% of the white vote. You would have to get about 400% of the Hispanic vote to equal that pct of white voters...and I don’t think the Dems would allow the GOP to stuff the ballot box

[grey_whiskers]

Jim, I hate to disagree with you.

But it was the message: it never got spread.

(During the debates, Romney emphasized the role of small business in reviving the economy, but nobody helped him in picking up on it and spreading it. Nobody articulated what was wrong with paying for Fluke's contraception / abortifacents, letting the meme spread that Republicans don't care about womyn. And Romney positively colluded with the left -- or he cowered like a true RINO in the face of lardass Candy Crowley -- about Benghazi.)

Hmmm, come to think of it, if the messenger doesn't get around to spreading the message, maybe it *is* the messenger. ;-)

Cheers!

[carton253]

If you stayed home and you are okay with those reasons then God go with you.

That doesn't change the fact that the country died on Tuesday night and it's not coming back. No matter who Republicans run in the future.

[SeminoleCounty]

Dole LOST!!! McCain LOST!!! Romney LOST!!!

Reagan LANDSLIDE!!! Reagan LANDSLIDE!!!

yadda yadda blah blah woof woof on everything else...

...don’t run RINOS!!!

---

Exactly...

[patriot08]

We can't wait for 2014 and 2016 to regroup and figure out new strategies. By then it will be too late.

The Marxist/Muslim usurper will have completed his planned distruction of America. That's what people fail to understand.

We must act NOW.

Start with the election. If we let the Rats get away with this massive voter fraud, we're no better than a bananna republic.

We must keep digging and pounding him every day, in every way we can- phony birth certificate, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, his hidden life, records....

[sirchtruth]

That doesn't change the fact that the country died on Tuesday night and it's not coming back. No matter who Republicans run in the future.

It did not! That's defeatist/STUPID thinking! If the republican's were wise which they have yet to show any evidence of then they would prop up a conservative candidate and take their chance with them instead of using the same old FAILED formula of the past!

It's simple, people still have principles and are not going to vote for LOSERS!

That's what makes America strong.

I didn't stay home I went against my principles, sound logic and common sense. I was doubly wrong! So I guess I end up being a bigger IDIOT!

[carton253]

Then please leave me alone in my defeatist/Stupid thinking until we revisit this whole issue again in 2016.

[1010RD]

Did you take the time to listen to the podcast or read the transcript? It’s very good data analysis and it would do us conservatives good to get our facts straight. We believe in our cause, but reality is smacking us pretty hard.

[sirchtruth]

Then please leave me alone in my defeatist/Stupid thinking until we revisit this whole issue again in 2016.

No problem! Of course, if you believe what you wrote then 2016 won't matter.

[BroJoeK]

TomGuy: "It would seem that several of the ‘swing states’ were not such swing states afterall."

Wikipedia shows state-by-state vote totals for 2004 and 2008, but not yet for 2012, so it's impossible to say if Romney lost previous McCain voters, or if Romney held constant while Obama increased votes in those states.

To put it another way: if Libertarians & others siphoned off a million votes from solid Republican or Democrat states, that would change nothing in the electoral college.
But if some came from critical "swing states", it might make a difference.

2012 Obama vs. Romney by state:

2012 Obama vs. Romney by county:

Compare -- 2008 Obama vs. McCain by county:

[carton253]

No, 2016 really won’t matter at all.

[BroJoeK]

TomGuy: "It would seem that several of the ‘swing states’ were not such swing states afterall."

Wikipedia shows state-by-state vote totals for 2004 and 2008, but not yet for 2012, so it's impossible to say if Romney lost previous McCain voters, or if Romney held constant while Obama increased votes in those states.

To put it another way: if Libertarians & others siphoned off a million votes from solid Republican or Democrat states, that would change nothing in the electoral college.
But if some came from critical "swing states", it might make a difference.

2012 Obama vs. Romney by state:

2012 Obama vs. Romney by county:

Compare -- 2008 Obama vs. McCain by county: