Posted on 09/28/2012 11:24:51 AM PDT by stocksthatgoup
Good post. I hate to, but I have to agree.
Yes, poll info. But, not only the reported information - the internals should (theoretically) be priced in as well. The fact that Obama is still ~80% on Intrade suggests that the people who are trading on Intrade are buying in to the media "poll consensus." Obviously doesn't mean that the polls are right, just that traders on Intrade seem to be according them substantial weight. I happen to think that Intrade is weighing the polls too heavily, and that Romney is a (very) cheap bet right now.
BTW, where do you think Intrade would be if they saw the early voting # s from OH?
Anyone can buy/sell on Intrade. So, in that sense, "they" have already seen those numbers (or, at least, have access to them).
Oh yeah, let them “believe” LoL and thanks for the tip. Betting on RR against OButt is a very good bet to clean up and run all the way to the bank. ;-)
Intrade was right because the media was right that Obama would win. See post 19.
Then there’s election day 2004. I’m no insider, didn’t see any internal polls, none of that. I knew Kerry was losing because he and Dubya were spending the last two weeks of the campaign in states Dubya lost in 2000. Dubya was trying to take new ground, Kerry was trying to defend it...there seemed to be no way both campaigns could have internals so far off. So, when the exit polls got it way, way wrong, I said, “Yeah, right!” and Intrade said “90% chance of a Kerry victory.”
This year, the polls and media are telling us something, and so is Intrade, but that something doesn’t match up with polling, candidate activities (Obama and Biden are winning in Wisconsin by 14%, but are holding rallies there to buck up the base? Really?), absentee ballot and early voting or what knowledge we have about ground game. So, instead of a 2008 year when the media pointed out the obvious, we have a 2004 year where the media is trying to achieve a result and Intrade believes them.
Intrade is the dumb money, and I will maintain that even if Obama wins, because it’s the truth.
If you were assigning odds based on what you see right now, what would they be?
Is there a place you suggest to look where ‘smart money’ hides?
Romney gives me nothing to vote for; so why should I vote for him? (His rhetoric is just talk; I have no faith that he will "do no harm," to borrow from the Hippocratic oath, much less do good for the country.)
The whole "the other guy's worse" argument? Ridiculous, especially when you compare what the Republican party does as opposed to its stated party-planks.
They can’t be manipulating all the betting sites. This bothers me intratrade had Wisconsin right 80/20. Real money is betting on the one and it can’t be spun as a good sign.
We still have 40 days however and a whole lot can happen.
Please - reconsider?
Please don’t be one of the non-voters who enables Obama.
Ryan has good conservative credentials. Vote for Romney if for no other reason than to put Ryan in as VP, so he can step up to bat if Romney were unable (due to illness, for example) to serve out his term.
Also - I support Israel and believe it’s very important that our country support Israel. Romney/Ryan would be a heck of a lot better for Israel than are Obama/Biden/Hillary.
Romney does not even have to win to make money on Intrade. You could make some money day trading on anticipation that Romney will do well enough in the debates to move the polls somewhat in his favor but not enough to win. In which case, you’d buy now and then dump the stock a week or so after the debates are over before any polling bounce would dissipate.
I can ignore the skewed polls, the media spin, etc but Intrade causes me some concern as it represents people betting their own money.
This is why I think Romney will win.
1. Economy
2. Foreign Policy
3. All polls show 0bama losing voter blocs from 2008.
4. Chick-fil-a
5. Just about all polls show Romney winning more GOpers than 0bama winning Dems
6. Just about all polls have Romney winning indies
I would say right now Romney has about a 51% percent chance of winning.
My suspicion is that most of the people betting on InTrade are getting their information only from the DNC propaganda system, also known as the mainstream media. If you were to believe those polls, and it's the only information you're getting, of course you'd expect Obama to win handily. The press has already told them that Romney has lost.
I'd say that we here at FR are definitely more 'in the know' than the typical voter/Intrade bettor.
So a coin toss?
No, a coin toss is random. I would say maybe 54 to 58%.
Beats me. I’m not an oddsmaker. I do believe Romney will win.
Let me put it this way: On the day before Paul Ryan was announced as VP, I would have said “I have no idea who Romney will pick. It’s totally up in the air and I don’t think the media buzz about Portman means anything.” If you had asked me what the odds were that Ryan was the pick, I would have been unsure.
Intrade was pretty sure. They said it was a 4.1% chance. Portman had a 32% chance.
Intrade is a reflecting mirror for the media, where people think they can gauge reality by what the AP wire says and make a buck.
Oh, I don't intend on not-voting; I'm just not voting for Romney.
I may vote for Virgil Goode (Constitution Party), FR's own Eternalvigilance (Republican Write-in), or Gary Johnson (Libertarian/Republican Write-in).
If the Republican Party wanted my vote they wouldn't have anointed Romney before the primaries had even started up.
Ryan has good conservative credentials. Vote for Romney if for no other reason than to put Ryan in as VP, so he can step up to bat if Romney were unable (due to illness, for example) to serve out his term.
Nope. I'm not buying the "vote for me because I'm pulling someone conservative from their useful/influential position into a more-or-less-useless position" argument.
Also - I support Israel and believe it’s very important that our country support Israel. Romney/Ryan would be a heck of a lot better for Israel than are Obama/Biden/Hillary.
Israel can take care of itself; in fact they really have God's word they'll be around in the End [see Rev]. As for us, well I'm more and more of the opinion that we should just cut off ALL foreign-aid until we have our own finances/debts under control. There is some biblical support for this: But if anyone does not provide for his own, and especially for those of his household, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever. -- 1 Tim 5:8 [NASB]
The racetrack.
No, seriously, at least on a comparative basis. The few guys who make good money betting on the ponies do so by evaluating a number of factors and defining a calculated risk using specialized knowledge. The guys on Intrade are just trying to grab some some easy scratch by betting on a “sure thing.” That’s why they heard about the Kerry landslide exit polls on election day and went to 90 Kerry-10 Bush. The AP wire said it, so it was a sure thing.
It could be intentional manipulation by Obamas people as Intrade has become known as a good predictor... but more likely it’s that (I believe) the majority of bettors are european and they get fed a steady diet of CNN-International and NYTimes/Wapo ... They see Obama as mainstream compared to their leaders and just can’t understand why he would be detested here.
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