Intrade was right because the media was right that Obama would win. See post 19.
Then there’s election day 2004. I’m no insider, didn’t see any internal polls, none of that. I knew Kerry was losing because he and Dubya were spending the last two weeks of the campaign in states Dubya lost in 2000. Dubya was trying to take new ground, Kerry was trying to defend it...there seemed to be no way both campaigns could have internals so far off. So, when the exit polls got it way, way wrong, I said, “Yeah, right!” and Intrade said “90% chance of a Kerry victory.”
This year, the polls and media are telling us something, and so is Intrade, but that something doesn’t match up with polling, candidate activities (Obama and Biden are winning in Wisconsin by 14%, but are holding rallies there to buck up the base? Really?), absentee ballot and early voting or what knowledge we have about ground game. So, instead of a 2008 year when the media pointed out the obvious, we have a 2004 year where the media is trying to achieve a result and Intrade believes them.
Intrade is the dumb money, and I will maintain that even if Obama wins, because it’s the truth.
If you were assigning odds based on what you see right now, what would they be?
Is there a place you suggest to look where ‘smart money’ hides?