Is there a place you suggest to look where ‘smart money’ hides?
The racetrack.
No, seriously, at least on a comparative basis. The few guys who make good money betting on the ponies do so by evaluating a number of factors and defining a calculated risk using specialized knowledge. The guys on Intrade are just trying to grab some some easy scratch by betting on a “sure thing.” That’s why they heard about the Kerry landslide exit polls on election day and went to 90 Kerry-10 Bush. The AP wire said it, so it was a sure thing.
The racetrack.
No, seriously, at least on a comparative basis. The few guys who make good money betting on the ponies do so by evaluating a number of factors and defining a calculated risk using specialized knowledge. The guys on Intrade are just trying to grab some some easy scratch by betting on a “sure thing.” That’s why they heard about the Kerry landslide exit polls on election day and went to 90 Kerry-10 Bush. The AP wire said it, so it was a sure thing.
That said, I’m keeping one eye on the stock market and figuring that the height it’s at may be an indication that the investment crowd expects a Romney win. Interestingly, I’ve seen one article saying that some of the deeper data matches up with previous crashes...an October crash would indicate that I’m wrong about investors, but it would prove me right in the end because it would seal Obama’s electoral doom.
Lastly, consider this: It’s likely those 80% of Intrade guys who think Obama is going to win are looking at stuff like the Quinnipiac poll showing Romney down 10% in Ohio. That poll was oversampled by 9%. Yet the absentee and early voting from there is almost too good to be true. In 2008, those of us saying the polls were flawed ignored the early voting data that pointed to a huge Dem advantage. this year, people who think the polls and Intrade are right are ignoring the data showing a huge GOP advantage.