If you were assigning odds based on what you see right now, what would they be?
This is why I think Romney will win.
1. Economy
2. Foreign Policy
3. All polls show 0bama losing voter blocs from 2008.
4. Chick-fil-a
5. Just about all polls show Romney winning more GOpers than 0bama winning Dems
6. Just about all polls have Romney winning indies
I would say right now Romney has about a 51% percent chance of winning.
Beats me. I’m not an oddsmaker. I do believe Romney will win.
Let me put it this way: On the day before Paul Ryan was announced as VP, I would have said “I have no idea who Romney will pick. It’s totally up in the air and I don’t think the media buzz about Portman means anything.” If you had asked me what the odds were that Ryan was the pick, I would have been unsure.
Intrade was pretty sure. They said it was a 4.1% chance. Portman had a 32% chance.
Intrade is a reflecting mirror for the media, where people think they can gauge reality by what the AP wire says and make a buck.