Beats me. I’m not an oddsmaker. I do believe Romney will win.
Let me put it this way: On the day before Paul Ryan was announced as VP, I would have said “I have no idea who Romney will pick. It’s totally up in the air and I don’t think the media buzz about Portman means anything.” If you had asked me what the odds were that Ryan was the pick, I would have been unsure.
Intrade was pretty sure. They said it was a 4.1% chance. Portman had a 32% chance.
Intrade is a reflecting mirror for the media, where people think they can gauge reality by what the AP wire says and make a buck.
Amen, I believe R&R win as well. I just wish I had a crystal wall to lock down my certainty. Lol
“I do believe Romney will win.”
I am afraid Intrade is getting this right. What hope Romney had essentially disappeared after all of his gaffes.
Of course, the GOP Establishment had said that Santorum and Gingrich were the candidates that could not be trusted!
We need to now look at how the 2013 Republican House will do battle vs. Obama and his Democratic Senate.
I predict that a portion (25%?) of the Republican House will give in to the Democrats on immediate tax increases in return for “phantom” spending cuts in the future, and that the Republican Party will disintegrate after that.
It is time to start planning for a new, GENUINE, conservative party. Republican Party - R.I.P.