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To: LS
I get it. You mean like pricing in poll info? Yeah, that's solid evidence.

Yes, poll info. But, not only the reported information - the internals should (theoretically) be priced in as well. The fact that Obama is still ~80% on Intrade suggests that the people who are trading on Intrade are buying in to the media "poll consensus." Obviously doesn't mean that the polls are right, just that traders on Intrade seem to be according them substantial weight. I happen to think that Intrade is weighing the polls too heavily, and that Romney is a (very) cheap bet right now.

BTW, where do you think Intrade would be if they saw the early voting # s from OH?

Anyone can buy/sell on Intrade. So, in that sense, "they" have already seen those numbers (or, at least, have access to them).

42 posted on 09/28/2012 12:21:06 PM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: Conscience of a Conservative

Romney does not even have to win to make money on Intrade. You could make some money day trading on anticipation that Romney will do well enough in the debates to move the polls somewhat in his favor but not enough to win. In which case, you’d buy now and then dump the stock a week or so after the debates are over before any polling bounce would dissipate.


50 posted on 09/28/2012 1:18:45 PM PDT by Arthurio
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