Posted on 10/02/2011 6:29:11 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
The Pacific Ocean near the equator is gradually cooling, and that could mean another cold and snowy winter in Wisconsin.
Forecasters are predicting another La Niña winter, an unusual occurrence since last winter was also a La Niña.
While it's always difficult to predict weather, La Niña winters are noted for below average temperatures and above average snowfall.
"One thing that you can usually count on in La Niña winters - the chance of it being milder than average is pretty low,' said Jeff Craven, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in Sullivan. "Someone looking to wear shorts this winter will have to go south of here."
There have been only four consecutive La Niña winters in the last six decades. Records of the weather phenomenon date to 1950.
Surface water temperatures in the Pacific equatorial region are now getting lower than normal, the signal of a La Niña - the flip side of El Niño, which is caused by higher than normal sea water temperatures.
"It's surprising to have a secondary one form this soon after the last one," said Kyle Swanson, a meteorology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Consecutive La Niña winters since 1950 were: 1954-'55 through 1956-'57; 1970-'71 through 1971-'72; 1973-'74 through 1975-'76; and 1998-'99 through 2000-'01.
Why would sea water temperatures thousands of miles from Wisconsin affect the weather here?
As Craven and Swanson explain it, colder water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator helps form thunderstorms in the tropics that generate big disturbances in the upper atmosphere. That leads to a large high pressure ridge over Alaska, which forces the jet stream to dip into Canada and the Mississippi River Valley. That, in turn, drops the mercury in the northern Plains, and lower temperatures spawn a storm track that's usually laden with moisture throughout the Ohio River Valley.
Often that storm track creates snow, and lots of it, in Wisconsin. In fact, the last two La Niña winters - 2008 and last year - dumped quite a load in the state.
Last winter, 61.9 inches of snow fell in Milwaukee, 15 inches more than normal, while the average temperature was 23.5 degrees, 1.7 degrees lower than normal. Madison got 73.1 inches of snow, more than 22 inches above average and shivered through an average temperature of 19.5 degrees, 2 degrees below normal.
Meteorologically speaking, a change of 2 degrees in average temperature for a season is significant, Craven said.
The National Weather Service counts winter as the months of December, January and February.
While scientists know what causes El Niño and La Niña, no one is quite sure why the Pacific Ocean surface water temperature at the equator fluctuates, said Swanson, a specialist in dynamic meteorology.
Niño, Niña, eh. All I know is I want whichever sends more rain into AZ. We’ve had weatherman panics over both these past several years, and we never get squat out here in the desert.
october 2010 was unusually wet.
all year since including the summer and fall have been cooler in coastal californicate which would signal that this analysis is correct.
Are you referring to Puxatawney Al the Gorehog? Hope fully we won’t see him again until Feb.2 2012!
Yeppers! Also known as the Goracle and Al Gorleone!
Could this be a long-term Gore Effect?
As does the rest of the northern hemisphere.
Stupid reporter.
At least your satellite dish is clear
Actually that is an old picture, that dish has been gone for over three years...our blood pressures are vastly improved. :{)
Living near the gulf coast I’d rather not have any hurricanes. And for your information, hurricane season pretty much ends October 1st for Texas. Enough troughs and fronts keep storms to the east of our parts.
The puke needs to stick to messages by hookers.
Bring it on!!!!!
Hmmm...Cold, clear, and sunny in Alaska? Only in the winter, unfortunately. I don't know about the rest of the Wasillians, but I'm expecting -25F for much of the winter. Stocking up on candles...
Man does that picture ever look familiar! (At least, your satellite dish is in the open...)
LOL! Valdez is notorious for its winter snowfall (around 30' most years). Had a neighbor there who said he was going to tie his snow shovel to the front of his pickup and drive south until somebody asked him what it was. LOL! We used an aluminum grain scoop. And an old Hough loader.
I know! I cannot WAIT to break out my snowshoes again and if I can swing it financially, I’ll have a snowmobile (sled) before the first snow flies!
Fishin’ for Yellow Perch through the ice - bonfires in the snow, snow caves for snugglin’!
Wa-Hoo! I LOVE winter. :)
You’re killing me. We usually just get a lot of slop.
Come visit this winter and bring your tourist dollars with you! Wisconsin Is Open for Business! :)
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