Posted on 10/02/2011 6:29:11 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
The Pacific Ocean near the equator is gradually cooling, and that could mean another cold and snowy winter in Wisconsin.
Forecasters are predicting another La Niña winter, an unusual occurrence since last winter was also a La Niña.
While it's always difficult to predict weather, La Niña winters are noted for below average temperatures and above average snowfall.
"One thing that you can usually count on in La Niña winters - the chance of it being milder than average is pretty low,' said Jeff Craven, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in Sullivan. "Someone looking to wear shorts this winter will have to go south of here."
There have been only four consecutive La Niña winters in the last six decades. Records of the weather phenomenon date to 1950.
Surface water temperatures in the Pacific equatorial region are now getting lower than normal, the signal of a La Niña - the flip side of El Niño, which is caused by higher than normal sea water temperatures.
"It's surprising to have a secondary one form this soon after the last one," said Kyle Swanson, a meteorology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Consecutive La Niña winters since 1950 were: 1954-'55 through 1956-'57; 1970-'71 through 1971-'72; 1973-'74 through 1975-'76; and 1998-'99 through 2000-'01.
Why would sea water temperatures thousands of miles from Wisconsin affect the weather here?
As Craven and Swanson explain it, colder water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator helps form thunderstorms in the tropics that generate big disturbances in the upper atmosphere. That leads to a large high pressure ridge over Alaska, which forces the jet stream to dip into Canada and the Mississippi River Valley. That, in turn, drops the mercury in the northern Plains, and lower temperatures spawn a storm track that's usually laden with moisture throughout the Ohio River Valley.
Often that storm track creates snow, and lots of it, in Wisconsin. In fact, the last two La Niña winters - 2008 and last year - dumped quite a load in the state.
Last winter, 61.9 inches of snow fell in Milwaukee, 15 inches more than normal, while the average temperature was 23.5 degrees, 1.7 degrees lower than normal. Madison got 73.1 inches of snow, more than 22 inches above average and shivered through an average temperature of 19.5 degrees, 2 degrees below normal.
Meteorologically speaking, a change of 2 degrees in average temperature for a season is significant, Craven said.
The National Weather Service counts winter as the months of December, January and February.
While scientists know what causes El Niño and La Niña, no one is quite sure why the Pacific Ocean surface water temperature at the equator fluctuates, said Swanson, a specialist in dynamic meteorology.
Snowy and cold in New York in December, January & February? Whoda thunk?
That rascally global warming again.
Shocked, shocked I tell you.
Bring on 100+ inches of snow!!!! (I'm right across the lake, smack in the middle of lake effect snow).
It probably won’t dump a lot of snow in Texas—but we can use all the moisture we can get! We’re still having a lot of fires around here, though none as bad as the Bastrop fires, thank goodness.
Not a drop of rain at my house in over 5 months!
Yeah, my brother in Tulsa is going through the same thing. I’m happy to send some rain your way, though I am enjoying my very lush lawn this year.
Send some of that snow southward!
I’ll also bet it is going to be cold in Rochester, NY. I’ll also bet that there will be 90-100 inches of snow fall. I’ll also bet that the Buffalo, NY airport will be closed once or twice because of lake effect snowfall. Isn’t global warming wonderful.
Us Texans will welcome wet any way we can get it.
Sadly forecasters say the return of La Nina will cause lower than normal precipitation in the Southwest so no relief from our drought conditions. We can’t get a break.
These guy who said the Pacific Ocean is cooling at the equator had better check his model since the real time data argues against the model. But we all know that real time data has no place in the discussion of climate change. Nor solar activity. Nor clouds. Nor airborne ash from volcanic eruptions. The only thing consistent about their models is...get ready for it...it's mankind's fault.
When will all the rotten ideas of the 20th century be exposed for the power-money grabs schemes they are?
Damn, that pix looks familiar.
We sold the snow blower when we left Minnesota. Last winter, I wished we had it back.
What Texas needs is a hurricane....or three!
Has anyone told Al Gorebaloney yet?
“lush lawn”? Refresh my memory—what is that?
Calling for snow here in the Sierra of California this Wednesday with temps dropping to 15 degrees and there is still a ton of snow that hasn’t melted from last Winter.
Didn’t Al Gore assure us that global warming would make the Great Plains into the Sahara???
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