Posted on 09/08/2011 8:24:13 PM PDT by JDW11235
Dear Freepers, please help me out! A firend of mine sent me an e-mail which featured a link to someone who is apparently an economist names Harry S. Dent, with a video ink (I'm including). I have never heard of this man, and I began to watch the video, in which he defines what he think is going on with the economy.
Thus far (I have only watched about half), all I can gather is that he believes that we are headed towards DEFLATION and that all commodoties are in a bubble and that whenever their is a crisis, people will run back to the U.S. dollar. He refers to this as "Running back to daddy." He also thinks there will be a massive drop in the price of P.M.'s and a Dow Jones of 3-4K in the near future.
This having been said, I agree with a lot of the data he has presented, but virtually non of his conclusions, with the exception of a continued drop in housing (history and logic favors that conclusion). But it seems like he is leaving out a myriad of information and variables such as other countries calling to drop the dollar, the other factors (flooding, fires, ethanol, etc.) in the rise in food commodities, and the fact that banks and persons are holding onto P.M.'s. I think this person is not credible in his conclusions, but wanted to know more about him, or any other's anaylsis of the presentation. Please help, if you have the time and desire. Thanks.
http://www.hsdent.com/video/index.html
P.S. I’m sorry for the typos, I’m trying to get ready to eat. Hopefully this also adds a clickable link to the video.
http://www.hsdent.com/video/index.html
If you have any insights, please let me know. Your pinglist (Kartographer) may wish to hear the analysis (I’m on it, and I’m interested to hear other’s takes), but leave that to your discretion.
Someone trying to sell you something?
Maybe try Google before posting a vanity? There’s a ton of information on the internet re Harry S. Dent.
No, my best friend’s father-in-law sent it to his daughter (my friend’s wife) and him, as they recently married and he though it would help them to prepare financially for the future. I have a very negative feeling when listening to his conclusions, but thought there was a lot of relevant data. I’m not an economic expert (but understand the fundamentals), and am looking for some who do this for a living/hobby to weigh in.
How much of it is from Conservative FReepers, whose opinion I value? I didn’t realize that Vanities labelled as such, and asking for FReepers’ opinions were a no-no, or is that just a pet peeve of yours?
It’s hard for me to see deflation, since it looks like QE3 before the end of the year. Deflation would benefit me greatly, but I can’t see it happening...
Also, I think whoever’s in charge, Dim or Pubbie, won’t even ALLOW it to happen-makes the national debt more difficult to pay down, dontcha know!
Preparing financially for the future is really pretty easy. Develop a marketable skill. Work hard at it. Save and invest as much as you can. When investing, diversify. That means a mix of equity and corporate bond mutual funds. No gimmicks, which includes non-producing assets like gold and vacant land. Then retire, or not, as you choose.
Dent’s predictions are all over the place. He did call the Japanese downturn but he also predicted a 40K Dow. He seems to go with the shotgun approach to predicting, throwing a lot of stuff out there and capitalizing on the predictions that happen to be right. One website that rates economists and funds gave him the “Ultimate Charlatan” award.
http://www.maxfunds.com/?q=node/319
I would take what he has to say with a grain of salt.
LOL, thanks for the humor, I was in a hurry to go get my dinner, I’m hungry. :)
Footnote to my professional investment advice: it if eats or burns gas, it’s not an investment.
Thank you for the response. I agree there will be no deflation (though some things like housing may come down, for other reasons). He drew parallels to the 1920’s, but didn’t mention going off the gold standard, change from an industrial to service based society, etc., as well as a number of other relevant issues, so I started getting skeptical.
Thanks for your sound advice. Work and production are the foundation of all wealth, because without them, eventually the well runs dry. Sometimes it’s our own work, othertimes we invest in the work of others, but as long as work is being done and something is being created (useful and/or necessary, of course), prosperity is, in my opinion, sure to follow.
Economists, themselves will never agree on anything, so thus it is, their opinions are common like buttoles. Everyone has one.
Thank you very much, it was a very useful link in my opinion, and I’m going to share the summation of Mr. Dent with my friend. Again, thank you for taking the time to provide me with that link.
I agree, “Economists” are academics, and academics seldom agree on much. I know there are many prosperous FReepers though, and many who have learned a lot of lessons, (Not trying to sell books, etc.). But I like to garner as much information from as many sources as I can to be able to make as informed a decision as I can, whenever possible.
Don’t worry too much about deflation. “Helicopter” (see http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/03/18/helicopter-ben-finally-hauls-out-the-helicopter/) Ben Bernanke would never let that happen. In the electronic age, he may not even need to print the money. One click of the button may be all he needs to create money out of thin air, and voila, no more deflation!
David Galland (Casey Research):
"We may have a year before the system breaks down, not much more than that for sure."
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