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Microsoft's IPad Response Is Too Tepid, Too Late
Paul Thurrott's Windows Supersite ^ | January 26, 2011 | Paul Thurrott

Posted on 01/26/2011 6:36:27 PM PST by Swordmaker

Earlier this month, technology enthusiasts around the world awaited Microsoft's opening keynote address for the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), with the anticipation that CEO Steve Ballmer would talk up a new generation of Windows-based tablets that would take on Apple's surging iPad. Instead, Ballmer ignored some of Microsoft's key consumer brands, and he didn't use the word "tablet" until his closing remarks.

Disappointing, sure. But a year after Ballmer and company promised a strong response to the iPad and explicitly noted it would do to the tablet market what it previously did with netbooks—come from behind for the win—Microsoft's tablet strategy is still in shambles. At CES, the company talked up plans to migrate its dominant PC OS, Windows, to a new class of "system on a chip" (SOC)-based devices, which will include tablets and even smaller devices. But Microsoft Vice President Steven Sinofsky said this Windows version was still "two to three years" away.

So what's Microsoft's answer to the iPad today?

Based on a set of leaked internal slides, not much. In an internal December 2010 presentation that ZD's Mary Jo Foley got her hands on, Microsoft is relying on a familiar, if tired, message: Windows-based tablets offer "choice," better security, and compatibility with familiar enterprise applications, when compared with the iPad. And although Microsoft recognizes some key iPad strengths—long battery life, simplicity, and so on—it claims that Windows still retains the lead for the tasks that matter to information workers.

Microsoft, I'd like to introduce you to reality.

In reality, Apple sold tens of millions of iPads last year and is on track to sell tens of millions more next year. In reality, people are buying iPads. In reality, they're not buying Windows 7-based tablets. And in reality, they never will.

Furthermore, businesses are buying iPads, too, and piloting them in ever faster numbers. Part of the lack of resistance here, no doubt, is the three-plus years Apple spent making the iPhone more acceptable in enterprise environments. That learning went into the iPad, and businesses are openly interested in this new device out of the gate, and not waiting for future revisions. They're certainly not waiting on Microsoft.

And the problem for Microsoft isn't just one of timing. Windows, for all its utility, is a decades-old product that is bogged down by years of often-obsolete technology and UI conventions that were invented in the 1980s; it's just not optimized for the multi-touch compatible devices of today. So the company can add multi-touch features to Windows, as it has done, but the product isn't optimized for such usage, and neither are the devices that use Windows.

If time could just stand still for Microsoft! The company will arrive eventually at Windows 8, which will reportedly feature an alternative, tiles-based UI that closely resembles the superior, modern, and multi-touch-friendly Windows Phone 7 UI. Wait a few more years, and that system will be available on smaller, more efficient SOC devices. But time isn't standing still. By that point, the iPad will be firmly entrenched. Many other competitors—including those based on Android, the HP webOS devices, the Research in Motion (RIM) PlayBook, and more—will be in the market as well, and every one of those systems is based on a lean, mobile-focused OS, not a sprawling desktop-class OS that was designed during the Reagan presidency of the 1980s. This year, millions of people will choose tablets. Virtually none of them will run Microsoft software.

Combined with the other evidence, this suggests that Microsoft's dithering, this time, is going to lead to defeat in this market and, perhaps, ultimately in the market for mainstream computing. This will have long-term ramifications for the company, including diminishing the chances of ongoing success of the product it's trying to protect the most: Windows.

Microsoft knows all about the consumerization of IT. In fact, it's been talking up this trend for the past year. The problem is, the consumerization of IT could be the start of Microsoft's downfall if it doesn't start moving more quickly. In the past, Microsoft could always rely on its corporate customer to bolster earnings when consumers were staying away from its software. But what happens when businesses turn their backs on Microsoft, too?

It's a future that's difficult to even contemplate. But it's also becoming a very real concern.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet
KEYWORDS: ilovebillgates; iwanthim; iwanthimbad; microsoftfanboys
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To: truthfreedom
with all the standard connectors?

It appears to be missing parallel, HDMI, DVI, DisplayPort, Firewire, digital audio, and a bunch of others. In fact, it has fewer ports than an iMac. And for hidden types of connectivity, it doesn't even have Bluetooth.

Funny about the design on it. Looks kind of like a 1999-2003 Apple monitor.

That's all aside from the absolutely trash idea of a desktop touch PC. Not many people are going to sit with their hands extended out in front of them for long periods.

21 posted on 01/26/2011 8:45:46 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: dayglored

It’s like you took the words right out of my brain, well done!


22 posted on 01/26/2011 8:49:01 PM PST by cmsgop ( I spent most of my childhood terrified that The Rhythm was going to get me.)
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To: JerseyHighlander

I’m studying the tablet market, more the android tablet market, pretty closely. I’m comfortable with Windows, but Android is more appealing to me. And the generic android tablets look like they’re getting really good.

I guess there are Tegra 2 tablets out now that are pretty expensive, but do apparently fly, and the herotab mid816 is good and under $250.

In 6 months or so there will likely be tegra 2 generics running honeycomb 3.0 for $250. I might wait for those.


23 posted on 01/26/2011 8:54:44 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: truthfreedom
Back in ye olden days, the Soviet copied a lot of US designs. I remember reading about them copying (IIRC) a particular US craft. The US plane was designed for a specific function. Their aircraft was not designed for that function, but they still included the modification to the body that allowed the function, even though they didn't even know WHY the specific feature was on the plane. Basically, they didn't know why the plane was shaped in a specific way, but they shaped it that way because the US did it.

MS did some very good work with 98 through NT (although they were still refining the stuff they got from Apple) but at a certain point in time, they got to where they copied Apple just to copy them.

Microsoft doesn't really have a future strategy, at least none that I can see. How did the Zune tie into the MS ecosystem? Why did MS jump from "Plays for sure" to the Zune in the first place?

They are copying bits and pieces, but are not assembling a whole. With the iPad, they haven't even been able to get a product out the door.

24 posted on 01/26/2011 8:56:15 PM PST by Richard Kimball
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To: antiRepublicrat

I’m not sure that I’m big on the idea of a big touchscreen in a desktop, but I do think that it’s a good option for those who want it. I don’t think that particular use of a touchscreen will dominate, but hey, if that’s what a person wants, I think it’s a good thing that they can get it.

If you’re going to use a touchscreen outside of a tablet, it might be better to put it in a laptop. With a desktop you have a keyboard and a mouse. Mice are pretty precise and work well. Laptops have that touch thing that really isn’t as good as a mouse, and which is similar to how a touchscreen might work.

Testing the post feature here. With a standard laptop, move hand to touchthing and find your cursor, use the touchthing to move the cursor to post, lift finger from touchthing to left button and click. With a touchscreen on a laptop, it would be simpler, faster, easier. Move hand to touchscreen, and touch post.


25 posted on 01/26/2011 9:06:30 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: Richard Kimball

Microsoft is just pretty hopeless. I probably had a Microsoft computer when Microsoft was considered as good as or better than Apple. I just don’t remember those days. Microsoft was the default os, people didn’t love it, but all the affordable computers were microsoft and the apples were specialty computers. people never really went around saying how much they loved their microsoft computer, it was just a computer that did what it was supposed to do pretty much, and it was plenty fast and plenty cheap.

There’s really nothing about Microsoft that makes people think that they’re particularly smart, good at doing software, good at designing hardware, or anything like that.
But their attitude is fine. Microsoft typically tries to do what you want it to do, and there are no “better way” limitations like - flash sucks so we’re not putting it in our product.


26 posted on 01/26/2011 9:16:36 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: RegulatorCountry
> Gates certainly did set out to emulate the look and feel of the Macintosh, dayglored. “Copying” has been in the Microsoft DNA from the outset. You can tout their success in the enterprise all you want and you’d be correct as to the strong point of differentiation and past departure between the two, but the derivative nature of Windows is well established, in both lore and fact.

We don't disagree on the copying part, with regard to the 1980's and 2000's. And the GUI, from start to finish... The look and feel of Windows has always been basically a bad clone of whatever Apple did a few years prior.

I was speaking of the operating system itself. NT, developed in the early 90's and available at the same time as Win95, was a huge leap ahead of what Apple had at the same time, and was in no way derivative of Apple's OS.

27 posted on 01/26/2011 9:19:17 PM PST by dayglored (Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!)
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To: SamAdams76

What advantage does a tablet have over a laptop in the office environment? I can see where people in the field would want a “big smart phone/powerful PDA” type device, but what’s the point for a guy like me who leaves his laptop at the office and prefers to just use his phone when out? Tablets look like a pain in the ass to lug around compared to smart phones, and I don’t understand what I would gain in the office that a laptop probably couldn’t do better. They do have long battery life, but if you hacked a laptop down to the computing power/storage capabilities of a tablet, you’d probably get similar battery life as well. I think the laptop isn’t going to be killed by the tablet any more than the laptop killed the desktop. If anything, I’d worry about phones obsoleting tablets.


28 posted on 01/26/2011 9:28:49 PM PST by Trod Upon (Obama: Making the Carter malaise look good. Misery Index in 3...2...1)
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To: Trod Upon

Would you be interested in a larger phone, with more power, similar to a 7inch tablet, that can fit in a jacket pocket?

Or is it important to you that the phone stay as small as possible?

I could call a 7 inch phone with all the capabilities of a computer a tablet, or a desktop replacement, or a phone. We should be able to accomplish that. Right now, these devices are pretty capable of doing some difficult things - outputting 1080p hdmi at 50mbps is difficult and old computers couldn’t do that. In terms of video, it looks like there’s that 1080p target, and that’ll be hit, and cheaper and cheaper tablets will be able to do 1080p. Adobe Premiere will run slower than on a desktop. Increased rendering times.


29 posted on 01/26/2011 10:00:13 PM PST by truthfreedom
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To: martin_fierro
That has to be one of the ugliest looking smart-phones! Doesn't Microsoft have any money to spend on how a good smartphone should look like?
30 posted on 01/26/2011 10:18:29 PM PST by rawhide
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To: rawhide

I agree! I have a Blackberry and I must say Microsoft has many conflicting approaches. While I like their bing app over google their Windows hotmail or live is non-existent while Google offers a full range of email, calendar sync capabilities.


31 posted on 01/26/2011 10:41:51 PM PST by baltoga
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To: Trod Upon
Some advantages of tablet over laptop:

Instant on (no boot-up)
Long battery life (entire workday)
Easy portability (see leather case below)

Keep in mind we are still in first generation of product. Future generations will see even more improvements.


32 posted on 01/27/2011 2:35:10 AM PST by SamAdams76
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To: Vicki
Consider what they came up with when they used their own ingenuity: A touch-operated coffeetable display called the Surface.


33 posted on 01/27/2011 2:51:00 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: dayglored

Not necessarily. Even back then, Apple had the AU/X experiment. Unix has been around on Macs for a long time.


34 posted on 01/27/2011 2:54:09 AM PST by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: dayglored

Gates and Microsoft copied Apple and actually stole DOS from some other guy named Gary Kildall.Google for the story. It’s really a dramatic, interesting story how Microsoft became big by stealing DOS from Gary Kildall. Then Gates now throws away his tens of billions of dollars giving it away to government schools, Africa, and other pro-socialism causes.Amazing.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_43/b3905109_mz063.htm

The Man Who Could Have Been Bill Gates
A new book says Gates got the rewards due Gary Kildall. What’s the real story?

The saga of the computing industry is rich with outsize characters and surprising plot turns, but there’s one story that has risen over time to mythic proportions. It’s the tale of how software pioneer Gary Kildall missed out on the opportunity to supply IBM (IBM ) with the operating system for its first PC — essentially handing the chance of a lifetime, and control of tech’s future, to rival Bill Gates and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT ). In the process, he may have missed out on becoming the world’s richest man.


35 posted on 01/27/2011 7:05:47 AM PST by Democrat_media (Why is no government creating a product we can hold in our hands like a cell phone..?)
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To: truthfreedom
I like windows pretty much but it seems like they have a tendency to add features i don’t want and take away ones i do.

You mean like the telnet program?

I know the decision to eliminate telnet (in Win 7) has caused heartburn for our IT org and helpdesk because of how incredibly useful it is for troubleshooting connectivity issues.

36 posted on 01/27/2011 7:13:55 AM PST by zeugma (Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam)
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To: Democrat_media
> Gates and Microsoft copied Apple and actually stole DOS from some other guy named Gary Kildall.Google for the story. It’s really a dramatic, interesting story how Microsoft became big by stealing DOS from Gary Kildall.

Dude, I was there. I've been designing and working with personal computers since the mid-1970's.

Gary Kildall had CP/M, the established standard. IBM negotiated with Kildall and Gates. Kildall blew them off.

Gates bought QDOS (Quick-n-Dirty OS) from Tim Paterson of Seattle Computing Products for $50,000. It was a a CP/M clone. Gates relabeled it for IBM, and made the deal that Microsoft could also sell it independently.

That was the right decision -- it made Microsoft what it is.

Over the decades, Microsoft has stolen a lot of software from a lot of small companies. But Gates did not in any way steal DOS from Kildall. Gary walked away from the deal of a lifetime, and Gates made the deal. Go look it up.

37 posted on 01/27/2011 7:39:30 AM PST by dayglored (Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!)
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To: Spktyr
> Not necessarily. Even back then, Apple had the AU/X experiment. Unix has been around on Macs for a long time.

Sure, but A/UX was never their mainline shipping product. I remember working with it around 1990-92 at Cornell University (where I was doing some system admin consulting). Like you said, it was an experiment. It was interesting, but even in academia, it was hard to take seriously. I did most of my work on DEC Ultrix Workstations around then.

My point was that in terms of real shipping products, Microsoft developed NT at a time when both DOS/Win and Mac mainline products were essentially toys, OS-wise.

It wasn't until Jobs brought BSD-based NextStep in to build OS-X, that Apple had a mainline product running a serious operating system.

BTW, I say that as a personal computer old-timer, who has been both a Mac user from the time of the Lisa, up to the present, and a DOS/Win/NT user from the very beginning also. I know a toy OS when I see one, and a serious one also. :)

38 posted on 01/27/2011 7:55:01 AM PST by dayglored (Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!)
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To: truthfreedom

Phones are pretty much already where I want them at deck of cards size, although they could be a little more powerful, but that will come before long. At seven inches I would rather just toss a laptop in my briefcase if I needed more muscle than the phone could deliver. I don’t always wear a jacket, so a seven-inch phone would be like dragging around a large tv remote all day.


39 posted on 01/27/2011 9:23:23 AM PST by Trod Upon (Obama: Making the Carter malaise look good. Misery Index in 3...2...1)
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To: dayglored
My point was that in terms of real shipping products, Microsoft developed NT at a time when both DOS/Win and Mac mainline products were essentially toys, OS-wise.

It would have been a better world if OS/2 Warp became the standard.

40 posted on 01/27/2011 9:27:49 AM PST by dfwgator
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