Netbook Killer: Apple's revolutionary iPad destroying the netbook business

Mac Daily News ^ | Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 08:59 AM EDT

[Swordmaker]

"There's an interesting chart in a report to clients issued early Thursday morning by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

"What caught my eye, however, was what her proprietary research shows about the impact of the iPad and other tablets on the broader gadget market, starting with netbooks. As her chart shows, sales growth of these low-cost, low-powered computing devices peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "It fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad."

"Her timing seems a little off," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "Steve Jobs didn't unveil the iPad until Jan. 27, yet the NPD data she cites is dated Jan. 10."

MacDailyNews Take: Apple "tablet" rumors were off the charts well before Jan. 27.

Elmer-DeWitt continues, "But in support of her theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March that found that 44% of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said that they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer."

Full article, which also shows that iPod touch might be next in line to be cannibalized, here.

MacDailyNews Take: Nearly every netbook that's replaced means one less Windows sale for Microsoft and one more OS X sale for Apple. Watch out for flying chairs!

• The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I've seen and heard, this won't be it. - John "Bloated Gasbag" Dvorak's iPad assessment, MarketWatch, January 29, 2010

• You know, I’m a big believer in touch and digital reading, but I still think that some mixture of voice, the pen and a real keyboard - in other words a netbook - will be the mainstream on that... It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, 'Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.' - Bill Gates, Microsoft Chairman, February 10, 2010

Bill Gates. Ever the visionary.

• The Apple iPad is not going to be the company's next runaway best seller. - John "B. G." Dvorak, MarketWatch, February 12, 2010

• The iPad has fewer capabilities than a netbook, in a similar size. Not a good start. - Lee Gomes, Forbes, March 05, 2010

• iPads will top the publicity charts this week when they launch, but netbooks will still top the sales charts, and far outsell iPads into the foreseeable future. The iPad will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose netbooks. - Preston Gralla, PCWorld, March 30, 2010

Gralla's may be a record incubation time for a foolish quote. Congrats, Preston! Our Take in response to Gralla was: "Ford's Model T will top the publicity charts this week when they roll off something Ford calls an 'assembly line,' but horse-drawn carriages will still top the sales charts, and far outsell automobiles into the foreseeable future. The Model T will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose horse-powered vehicles. - HorsecartWorld, September 23, 1908."

• Anyone who believes this thing is a game changer is a tool. - Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, April 05, 2010

Leave it to Paulie to immediately break the record for ineptitude.

[dfwgator]

I got my netbook with Ubuntu installed, no “Microsoft Tax” for me.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

JMHO, the iPad will become the the next 8 track.

Most companies would "kill" for the chance to have an iPad type of product so wildly successful -- while waiting for the product to eventually become the next 8-track, as technology gradually advances ... LOL ...

[SunkenCiv]

I picked up a brand-new Apple product a couple of weeks ago, one of the wired keyboards. They’re the same price with or without the numeric keypad, so I went with the bigger one. Haven’t actually plugged it in yet, in fact, the package is still sealed.

[Terpfen]

You’re going to be waiting a long time. Apple doesn’t lower prices, they upgrade the hardware and keep the same price point.

[Hildy]

I’m very familiar with Apple, thank you!

[downwdims]

If the 8 track had the Apple fanboys/appologists it would have never died

[downwdims]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZClYKbb6Qw

[Vinnie]

I’m kinda in the market for an E reader.
Looked at the Nook yesterday. Nice but unimpressed.

Really want an iPad but, with the backlit screen you can’t use it in sunlight. Boo
That one feature has me looking elsewhere.

[downwdims]

Kindle?

[Vinnie]

Yeah, Gonna look at Kindle. And the Sony.

[reagan_fanatic]

[TXnMA]

Wrong acronym. Should have been,

"IMWO"...

[TXnMA]

My first thought on the iPad was, "Something else I don't need..."

But it has struck me that (when I don't take my MBP with me) I frequently lug around a folder of printed graphics so that I can discuss and show off my latest cartographic / archaeological / graphics projects.

Hmmmmm -- wonder how an iPad would work as a folder replacement? Pretty well, I'd guess -- with graphics that match the quality of my Mac work -- and it would have much of the dynamic interactivity I have with my MBP...

Time to rethink the iPad purchase...

[PapaBear3625]

I’m not fond of my netbook, but at least it has a keyboard!

So does the iPad. With a touchscreen, the screen has a pop-up keyboard. You also have a keyboard docking station/recharger.

[meyer]

So does the iPad. With a touchscreen, the screen has a pop-up keyboard.

I have an iPod - the touchscreen keyboard is pretty poor. Of course, any keyboard smaller than standard size is more difficult to use. And without the tactile feel, the touch screen keyboards require that one look at their fingers while typing.

Truthfully, the netbook keyboard, being only 92% of full size, isn't quite ideal either. I find myself hitting the wrong keys more often on it than I do on a standard-sized keyboard.

My next laptop will be a real laptop, with a nice big, high-resolution screen and lots of horsepower. I'm spoiled by a 24 inch and 20 inch monitor at home, and a couple of 30 inchers at work.