Netbook Killer: Apple's revolutionary iPad destroying the netbook business

Mac Daily News ^ | Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 08:59 AM EDT

[Swordmaker]

"There's an interesting chart in a report to clients issued early Thursday morning by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

"What caught my eye, however, was what her proprietary research shows about the impact of the iPad and other tablets on the broader gadget market, starting with netbooks. As her chart shows, sales growth of these low-cost, low-powered computing devices peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "It fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad."

"Her timing seems a little off," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "Steve Jobs didn't unveil the iPad until Jan. 27, yet the NPD data she cites is dated Jan. 10."

MacDailyNews Take: Apple "tablet" rumors were off the charts well before Jan. 27.

Elmer-DeWitt continues, "But in support of her theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March that found that 44% of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said that they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer."

Full article, which also shows that iPod touch might be next in line to be cannibalized, here.

MacDailyNews Take: Nearly every netbook that's replaced means one less Windows sale for Microsoft and one more OS X sale for Apple. Watch out for flying chairs!

• The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I've seen and heard, this won't be it. - John "Bloated Gasbag" Dvorak's iPad assessment, MarketWatch, January 29, 2010

• You know, I’m a big believer in touch and digital reading, but I still think that some mixture of voice, the pen and a real keyboard - in other words a netbook - will be the mainstream on that... It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, 'Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.' - Bill Gates, Microsoft Chairman, February 10, 2010

Bill Gates. Ever the visionary.

• The Apple iPad is not going to be the company's next runaway best seller. - John "B. G." Dvorak, MarketWatch, February 12, 2010

• The iPad has fewer capabilities than a netbook, in a similar size. Not a good start. - Lee Gomes, Forbes, March 05, 2010

• iPads will top the publicity charts this week when they launch, but netbooks will still top the sales charts, and far outsell iPads into the foreseeable future. The iPad will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose netbooks. - Preston Gralla, PCWorld, March 30, 2010

Gralla's may be a record incubation time for a foolish quote. Congrats, Preston! Our Take in response to Gralla was: "Ford's Model T will top the publicity charts this week when they roll off something Ford calls an 'assembly line,' but horse-drawn carriages will still top the sales charts, and far outsell automobiles into the foreseeable future. The Model T will remain an expensive, niche device compared to all-purpose horse-powered vehicles. - HorsecartWorld, September 23, 1908."

• Anyone who believes this thing is a game changer is a tool. - Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, April 05, 2010

Leave it to Paulie to immediately break the record for ineptitude.

[Swordmaker]

Netbook Sales plummet with introduction of iPad... PING!

Apple iPad killing netbook sales Ping!

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me.

[Psycho_Bunny]

Lol.

[Hildy]

I used an IPAD for the first time today. It’s an IPHONE x 100. It’s great and I want one...bad. But I will wait for the price to come down a bit.

[umgud]

JMHO, the iPad will become the the next 8 track.

[Mr. Jeeves]

They'll be arguing the superiority of the Windows netbook for years, right alongside the other experts who are sure OS/2 will become the dominant desktop operating system any day now. :)

[HangnJudge]

It is good to see an American company,
with American talent,
making products with worldwide impact,
clearly demonstrating the superior nature
of American entrepreneurial spirit

AND making a lot of money at it
AND doing so in the face of ferocious competition
AND ubiquitous naysayers

[aft_lizard]

Call me in a year so we can real data.

[VeniVidiVici]

Outstanding! I’m in the market for another Netbook.

[aft_lizard]

And with Chinese manpower, with Chinese factories in China.

The fact remains the item was just introduced, that does not equate to anything right now no matter what the blow hards are saying. If in a year from now these netbook sales are still down and the iPad sales are still soaring then you have a case.

[tubebender]

I saw this on the news the other night... iPad to replace text books .

[aft_lizard]

BTW Here is a story with out the Apple feverish orgasmic spin to it:
http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=013000R3SFIP&page=1

[OneWingedShark]

I don’t know... I use pen and paper a lot despite the electronic age. Do you think that the notebook will EVER truly die?

[mnehring]

Archos has some pretty good Windows based competitive devices but Apple always seems to know exactly what the market is looking for.

[dennisw]

I used an IPAD for the first time today. It’s an IPHONE x 100. It’s great and I want one...bad. But I will wait for the price to come down a bit.>>>>>>>>

Hey Bub I see what all the hub bub is about.
I tried one first time ever in Best Buy today for 15 minutes. It’s clean and sleek and very light. Nice bright sharp screen. Has more sex appeal than a netbook. Don’t need one ...just saying....

[meyer]

I’m not fond of my netbook, but at least it has a keyboard!

Neener neener...

[meyer]

Isn’t Al Gore on the Apple board of directors?

[KoRn]

"Do you think that the notebook will EVER truly die?"

It has with me. When I go to meetings at work, I'm surrounded by all of these people with pens and paper, and I'm the only one among them using a netbook. Instead of writing notes, I just type into an open text document. When I get bored, instead of doodling and fiddling with pens like the rest of them, I'm browsing FR. lol

[PugetSoundSoldier]

Netbook sales are still increasing; the rate of increase has slowed, and it started slowing well before the iPad was even announced.

How long did people think netbooks could continue racking up 500%+ annual sales increases? At some point it has to slow down. The slow down is not from the iPad (since it started before the iPad was announced or out), but from saturation in the market.

[barb-tex]

Many Years ago when I was but a wee lass, I got my first electronic Type writer, a brother. It could communicate by Modem and had a Paralell port to communicate to my non existent computer. With 4k memory, you could type your notes and be the envy of every other person in the meeting. This machine came from Saudi Arabia, and the ones I saw in the US did not have all the features of this one. To the i-pad in 25 short years.
barbra ann