Posted on 03/16/2010 8:34:48 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Dr. Nicola Scafetta has written an extensive summary of the state of climate science today. Hes done some very extensive analysis of the solar contribution that bears examination. Pay particular attention to this graph from page 49:
Top: The figure shows the global surface temperature (black) detrended of its quadratic fit function as done in Figure 1. The data are plotted against the 60 year modulation of the speed of the sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system (red) shown in Appendix T. The 60 year modulation of SCMSS has been time-shifted by +5 years. Bottom: The figure shows the global surface temperature (black) filtered within its two decadal oscillation. The temperature modulation is plotted against the SCMSS (red) shown in Appendix T. No time-shift has been applied. The figures suggest that the 60 and 20 year modulation of the SCMSS can be used for forecasting these global surface temperature oscillations and has been used to reproduce the forecast modulation curves in Figure 13.
WUWT readers may remember him from some previous papers and comments hes written that have been covered here:
Scafetta: New paper on TSI, surface temperature, and modeling
Scafetta: Benestad and Schmidts calculations are robustly flawed.
He writes to me with this introduction:
On February 26, 2009 I was invited by the Environmental Protection Agency Office of the Science Advisor (OSA) and National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) to present a talk about my research on climate change. I thought that the best way to address this issue was to present an overview of all topics involved about the issue and their interconnections.
So, I prepared a kind of holistic presentation with the title Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion about Some Key Issues. Then, a colleague from Italy who watched my EPA presentation suggested me to write a paper in Italian and submit it to an Italian science journal which was recently published.
I realized that it could be done more, so I thought that actually writing a short booklet summarizing all major topics and possible future perspectives could be useful for the general public. So, this work I am presenting here and which is supposed to be read by the large interested public came out. It contains a translation into English of my Italian paper plus numerous notes and appendixes covering also the most recent results that have transformed the original paper in a comprehensive booklet.
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Download the report here (PDF -warning over 10 MB long download time on slow connections)
This work covers most topics presented by Scafetta at a seminar at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009. A video of the seminar is here:
The Italian version of the original paper can be downloaded (with possible journal restrictions) from here
Here is the table of contents, theres something in this report for everyone:
Climate Change and Its Causes: A Discussion About Some Key Issues
Introduction 4
The IPCCs pro-anthropogenic warming bias 6
The climate sensitivity uncertainty to CO2 increase 8
The climatic meaning of Manns Hockey Stick temperature graph 10
The climatic meaning of recent paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions 12
The phenomenological solar signature since 1600 14
The ACRIM vs. PMOD satellite total solar irradiance controversy 16
Problems with the global surface temperature record 18
A large 60 year cycle in the temperature record 19
Astronomical origin of the climate oscillations 22
Conclusion 26
Bibliography 27
Appendix 29-54
A: The IPCCs anthropogenic global warming theory 29
B: Chemical vs. Ice-Core CO2 atmospheric concentration estimates 30
C: Milky Ways spiral arms, Cosmic Rays and the Phanerozoic temperature cycles 31
D: The Holocene cooling trend and the millennial-scale temperature cycles 32
E: The last 1000 years of global temperature, solar and ice cover data 33
F: The solar dynamics fits 5000 years of human history 34
G: The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age A global phenomenon 35
H: Compatibility between the AGWT climate models and the Hockey Stick 36
I: The 11-year solar cycle in the global surface temperature record 37
J: The climate models underestimate the 11-year solar cycle signature 38
K: The ACRIM-PMOD total solar irradiance satellite composite controversy 39
L: Willson and Hoyts statements about the ACRIM and Nimbus7 TSI published data .. 40
M: Cosmic ray flux, solar activity and low cloud cover positive feedback 41
N: Possible mechanisms linking cosmic ray flux and cloud cover formation 42
O: A warming bias in the surface temperature records? 43
P: A underestimated Urban Heat Island effect? 44
Q: A 60 year cycle in multisecular climate records 45
R: A 60 year cycle in solar, geological, climate and fishery records 46
S: The 11-year solar cycle and the V-E-J planet alignment 47
T: The 60 and 20 year cycles in the wobbling of the Sun around the CMSS 48
U: The 60 and 20 year cycles in global surface temperature and in the CMSS 49
V: A 60 year cycle in multisecular solar records 50
W: The bi-secular solar cycle: Is a 2010-2050 little ice age imminent? 51
X: Temperature records do not correlate to CO2 records 52
Y: The CO2 fingerprint: Climate model predictions and observations disagree 53
Z: The 2007 IPCC climate model projections. Can we trust them? 54
Thanks --Dr. Bogus Pachysandra .
Thanks for the Ping!
Dr. Nicola Scafetta - why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned
~ Table of contents, theres something in this report for everyone:
Climate Change and Its Causes: A Discussion About Some Key Issues
[Thanks, Ernest_at_the_Beach.]
Appendix W. The bi-secular solar cycle: Is a 2010-2050 little ice age imminent?
********************************EXCERPT*******************************
If the bi-secular solar cycle repeats, a new solar minimum lasting a few decades should be expected. This new low solar activity cycle may induce a further cooling of the climate during the first half of the 21 st century.
Excellent summary paper,...PDF...and the sun is the cause and the next cooling is upon us....keep those SUV’s humming!
***********************************From the PDF**********************************
Nicola Scafetta graduated from the Universita di Pisa (Italy) in Physics in 1997 and from the University of North Texas with a Ph. D. in physics in 2001. From 2002 to 2005 he was a research associate and since 2005 a research scientist at the department of physics at Duke University. His interest is in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes including solar-climate physics and climate change. He has taught Astronomy at Duke University, and several undergraduate and graduate physics courses at the University of North Carolina in Greensboro, at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill and at Elon University. He is currently associated and a co-investigator of the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM). He has over 48 peer-review scientific publications of various kinds. He is a contributor author of Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) editors S. Fred Singer and Craig Idso, The Heartland Institute, 2009. He is the author with Bruce J. West of Disrupted Networks: From Physics to Climate Change, World Scientific Publishing Company, 2010. He has organized several scientific international conference sessions focusing on solar variation and climate change for the American Geophysical Union.
Email: nicola.scafetta@gmail.com
****************************************************
Nicola Scafetta, PhD
Research Scientist, Duke University
Department of Physics Duke University
Office Location: 219 FEL Office Phone: (919) 660-2643 Office Fax: (919) 660-2671
Email Address 1: ns2002@duke.edu Email Address 2: nicola.scafetta@gmail.com
Curriculum Vitae (06/Dec/2009): PDF Teaching: (web-page) |
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Interest:
My research interest is in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes with applications in several fields: astronomy, biology, climatology, economy, geology, medicine and social biology. I am currently studying solar and astronomical causes of climate change and modeling of physiological systems for diagnosing hypoxia and hyperoxia risk patients.
Collaboration:
1) Duke Center for Hyperbaric Medicine and Environmental Physiology
2) Total Solar Irradiance experiment: Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor: ACRIM-SAT Experiment
Books:
1) (Contributor author of) Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC).: editors S. Fred Singer and Craig Idso. Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute, 2009.
2) Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues, Nicola Scafetta, SPPI original paper, March 4, 2010. PDF
This booklet discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model.
3) Disrupted Networks: from physics to climate change, Bruce J. West and Nicola Scafetta (2010).
Conference on video (All conferences):
Climate Change and Its causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues Nicola Scafetta. Invited author at the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009.
Selected Recent Publications (All publications):
N. Scafetta, I cambi climatici e le loro cause, una discussione su alcuni punti chiave, La Chimica e lIndustria 1, page 70-75 (2010). PDF
N. Scafetta and B. J. West, "Interpretations of climate-change data," Physics Today 11, November, page 8-10 (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta, Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 71 19161923 (2009), doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007. PDF
N. Scafetta, Total solar irradiance satellite composites and their phenomenological effect on climate," In press on a special volume for the Geological Society of America. (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta, D. Marchi and B. J. West, Understanding the complexity of human gait dynamics, Chaos 19, 026108 (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta and R. Willson, ACRIM-gap and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model, Geophysical Research Letter 36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307 (2009). PDF Supporting material PDF
K. F. Froehlich, M. R. Graham, T. G. Buchman, L. G. Girling, N. Scafetta, B. J. West, E.K-Y. Walker, B.M. McManus and W. A. C. Mutch, Physiological Noise versus White Noise to Drive a Variable Ventilator in a Porcine Model of Lung Injury, Canadian Journal of Anesthesia 55(9) 572 - 576 (2008). PDF
N. Scafetta and B. J. West, Is climate sensitive to solar variability? Physics Today 3, 50-51 (2008). PDF
N. Scafetta, "Comment on ``Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system' by Schwartz." J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15104, doi:10.1029/2007JD009586. (2008). PDF
E. Kabela and N. Scafetta, Solar Effect and Climate Change, Bulletin of the american meteorological society, 89 -1, 34-35 (2008). PDF
**************************************************
This 880-page rebuttal of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), three years in the making, was released in June 2009 by The Heartland Institute. Coauthored and edited by S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., and Craig Idso, Ph.D. and produced with contributions and reviews by an international coalition of scientists, it provides an independent examination of the evidence available on the causes and consequences of climate change in the published, peer-reviewed literature examined without bias and selectivity. It includes many research papers ignored by the IPCC plus additional scientific results that became available after the IPCC deadline of May 2006.
Chapter 1 describes the limitations of the IPCC s attempt to forecast future climate with computer models. The IPCC violates many of the rules and procedures required for scientific forecasting, making its projections of little use to policymakers.
Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce the earth s sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2. Scientific studies suggest the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 level is much lower than the IPCC s estimate.
Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC s claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate.
Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and sea level rise. We find no evidence of trends that could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global warming of the twentieth century.
Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing number of scientists who say variations in solar activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of climate change. We describe the evidence of a solar-climate.
Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global warming will cause (or already is causing) more droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, storm surges, heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support in the peer-reviewed literature for these predictions and considerable evidence to support an opposite prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a warmer world.
Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. This is the largely unreported side of the global warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally good news. Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. It is a boon to the world s forests and prairies, as well as to farmers and ranchers and the growing populations of the developing world.
Chapter 8 examines the IPCC s claim that CO2-induced increases in air temperature will cause unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on land and in the world s oceans. We find there little real-world evidence in support of such claims and an abundance of counter evidence that suggests ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and CO2-enriched world.
Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC s claim that CO2-induced global warming is harmful to human health. The IPCC blames high-temperature events for increasing the number of cardiovascular-related deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever. The peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further global warming would likely do just the opposite and actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme thermal conditions.
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Thanks for the ping!
Thanks Ernest
Thanks E. I had looked at this presentation last last night at WUWT.. Very interesting. Think I will bookmark for possible later download of full paper.
Earlier global warming link roundup:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2470409/posts?page=4#4
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