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Dr. Nicola Scafetta - “why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned”
Wattsupwiththat ^
| March 14, 2010
| Dr. Nicola Scafetta
Posted on 03/16/2010 8:34:48 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Dr. Nicola Scafetta has written an extensive summary of the state of climate science today. He’s done some very extensive analysis of the solar contribution that bears examination. Pay particular attention to this graph from page 49:
Top: The figure shows the global surface temperature (black) detrended of its quadratic fit function as done in Figure 1. The data are plotted against the 60 year modulation of the speed of the sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system (red) shown in Appendix T. The 60 year modulation of SCMSS has been time-shifted by +5 years. Bottom: The figure shows the global surface temperature (black) filtered within its two decadal oscillation. The temperature modulation is plotted against the SCMSS (red) shown in Appendix T. No time-shift has been applied. The figures suggest that the 60 and 20 year modulation of the SCMSS can be used for forecasting these global surface temperature oscillations and has been used to reproduce the forecast modulation curves in Figure 13.
WUWT readers may remember him from some previous papers and comments he’s written that have been covered here:
Scafetta: New paper on TSI, surface temperature, and modeling
Scafetta: Benestad and Schmidt’s calculations are “robustly” flawed.
Scafetta-Wilson Paper: Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades
He writes to me with this introduction:
On February 26, 2009 I was invited by the Environmental Protection Agency Office of the Science Advisor (OSA) and National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) to present a talk about my research on climate change. I thought that the best way to address this issue was to present an overview of all topics involved about the issue and their interconnections.
So, I prepared a kind of holistic presentation with the title ”Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion about Some Key Issues”. Then, a colleague from Italy who watched my EPA presentation suggested me to write a paper in Italian and submit it to an Italian science journal which was recently published.
I realized that it could be done more, so I thought that actually writing a short booklet summarizing all major topics and possible future perspectives could be useful for the general public. So, this work I am presenting here and which is supposed to be read by the large interested public came out. It contains a translation into English of my Italian paper plus numerous notes and appendixes covering also the most recent results that have transformed the original paper in a comprehensive booklet.
This booklet covers more or less all topics I believe to be important for understanding the debate on climate change. Herein, I argue why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned.
Finally, a suggestion for those who would like to print it, the best way is to use the “booklet option” of the printers and staple it in the middle.
========================
Download the report here (PDF -warning over 10 MB – long download time on slow connections)
This work covers most topics presented by Scafetta at a seminar at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009. A video of the seminar is here:
The Italian version of the original paper can be downloaded (with possible journal restrictions) from here
Here is the table of contents, there’s something in this report for everyone:
Climate Change and Its Causes: A Discussion About Some Key Issues
Introduction … 4
The IPCC’s pro-anthropogenic warming bias … 6
The climate sensitivity uncertainty to CO2 increase … 8
The climatic meaning of Mann’s Hockey Stick temperature graph … 10
The climatic meaning of recent paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions … 12
The phenomenological solar signature since 1600 … 14
The ACRIM vs. PMOD satellite total solar irradiance controversy … 16
Problems with the global surface temperature record … 18
A large 60 year cycle in the temperature record … 19
Astronomical origin of the climate oscillations … 22
Conclusion … 26
Bibliography … 27
Appendix…29-54
A: The IPCC’s anthropogenic global warming theory … 29
B: Chemical vs. Ice-Core CO2 atmospheric concentration estimates … 30
C: Milky Way’s spiral arms, Cosmic Rays and the Phanerozoic temperature cycles … 31
D: The Holocene cooling trend and the millennial-scale temperature cycles … 32
E: The last 1000 years of global temperature, solar and ice cover data … 33
F: The solar dynamics fits 5000 years of human history … 34
G: The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age – A global phenomenon … 35
H: Compatibility between the AGWT climate models and the Hockey Stick … 36
I: The 11-year solar cycle in the global surface temperature record … 37
J: The climate models underestimate the 11-year solar cycle signature … 38
K: The ACRIM-PMOD total solar irradiance satellite composite controversy … 39
L: Willson and Hoyt’s statements about the ACRIM and Nimbus7 TSI published data .. 40
M: Cosmic ray flux, solar activity and low cloud cover positive feedback … 41
N: Possible mechanisms linking cosmic ray flux and cloud cover formation … 42
O: A warming bias in the surface temperature records? … 43
P: A underestimated Urban Heat Island effect? … 44
Q: A 60 year cycle in multisecular climate records … 45
R: A 60 year cycle in solar, geological, climate and fishery records … 46
S: The 11-year solar cycle and the V-E-J planet alignment … 47
T: The 60 and 20 year cycles in the wobbling of the Sun around the CMSS … 48
U: The 60 and 20 year cycles in global surface temperature and in the CMSS … 49
V: A 60 year cycle in multisecular solar records … 50
W: The bi-secular solar cycle: Is a 2010-2050 little ice age imminent? … 51
X: Temperature records do not correlate to CO2 records … 52
Y: The CO2 fingerprint: Climate model predictions and observations disagree … 53
Z: The 2007 IPCC climate model projections. Can we trust them? … 54
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: agw; climategate; globalwarminghoax
To: neverdem; SunkenCiv; Southack; steelyourfaith; Fred Nerks; Marine_Uncle; Dr. Bogus Pachysandra; ...
Did a quick scan...thought this was very useful!
Thanks --Dr. Bogus Pachysandra .
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
3
posted on
03/16/2010 9:15:26 AM PDT
by
winoneforthegipper
("If you can't ride two horses at once, you probably shouldn't be in the circus" - SP)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; null and void; stockpirate; george76; PhilDragoo; Candor7; ...
Dr. Nicola Scafetta - “why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned”
~ Table of contents, there’s something in this report for everyone:
Climate Change and Its Causes: A Discussion About Some Key Issues
[Thanks, Ernest_at_the_Beach.]
4
posted on
03/16/2010 9:16:55 AM PDT
by
LucyT
To: winoneforthegipper; LucyT
This paper seems to me,...to touch on most of what I have read....and in the PDF we have in the appendix a section......
Appendix W. The bi-secular solar cycle: Is a 2010-2050 little ice age imminent?
********************************EXCERPT*******************************
If the bi-secular solar cycle repeats, a new solar minimum lasting a few decades should be expected. This new low solar activity cycle may induce a further cooling of the climate during the first half of the 21 st century.
To: Arthur Wildfire! March; Star Traveler; ProtectOurFreedom; expatpat; TigersEye; MeekOneGOP; ...
Excellent summary paper,...PDF...and the sun is the cause and the next cooling is upon us....keep those SUV’s humming!
To: All
About the author:
***********************************From the PDF**********************************
Nicola Scafetta graduated from the Universita’ di Pisa (Italy) in Physics in 1997 and from the University of North Texas with a Ph. D. in physics in 2001. From 2002 to 2005 he was a research associate and since 2005 a research scientist at the department of physics at Duke University. His interest is in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes including solar-climate physics and climate change. He has taught Astronomy at Duke University, and several undergraduate and graduate physics courses at the University of North Carolina in Greensboro, at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill and at Elon University. He is currently associated and a co-investigator of the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM). He has over 48 peer-review scientific publications of various kinds. He is a contributor author of “Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)” editors S. Fred Singer and Craig Idso, The Heartland Institute, 2009. He is the author with Bruce J. West of Disrupted Networks: From Physics to Climate Change, World Scientific Publishing Company, 2010. He has organized several scientific international conference sessions focusing on solar variation and climate change for the American Geophysical Union.
Email: nicola.scafetta@gmail.com
****************************************************
Nicola Scafetta, PhD
Research Scientist, Duke University
Interest:
My research interest is in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes with applications in several fields: astronomy, biology, climatology, economy, geology, medicine and social biology. I am currently studying solar and astronomical causes of climate change and modeling of physiological systems for diagnosing hypoxia and hyperoxia risk patients.
Collaboration:
1) Duke Center for Hyperbaric Medicine and Environmental Physiology
2) Total Solar Irradiance experiment: Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor: ACRIM-SAT Experiment
Books:
1) (Contributor author of) “Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC).”: editors S. Fred Singer and Craig Idso. Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute, 2009.
2) “Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues”, Nicola Scafetta, SPPI original paper, March 4, 2010. PDF
This booklet discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model.
3) “Disrupted Networks: from physics to climate change,” Bruce J. West and Nicola Scafetta (2010).
Conference on video (All conferences):
“Climate Change and Its causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues” Nicola Scafetta. Invited author at the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009.
Selected Recent Publications (All publications):
N. Scafetta, “I cambi climatici e le loro cause, una discussione su alcuni punti chiave”, La Chimica e l’Industria 1, page 70-75 (2010). PDF
N. Scafetta and B. J. West, "Interpretations of climate-change data," Physics Today 11, November, page 8-10 (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta, “Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 71 1916–1923 (2009), doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007. PDF
N. Scafetta, “Total solar irradiance satellite composites and their phenomenological effect on climate," In press on a special volume for the Geological Society of America. (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta, D. Marchi and B. J. West, “Understanding the complexity of human gait dynamics,” Chaos 19, 026108 (2009). PDF
N. Scafetta and R. Willson, “ACRIM-gap and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model”, Geophysical Research Letter 36, L05701, doi:10.1029/2008GL036307 (2009). PDF Supporting material PDF
K. F. Froehlich, M. R. Graham, T. G. Buchman, L. G. Girling, N. Scafetta, B. J. West, E.K-Y. Walker, B.M. McManus and W. A. C. Mutch, “Physiological Noise versus White Noise to Drive a Variable Ventilator in a Porcine Model of Lung Injury,” Canadian Journal of Anesthesia 55(9) 572 - 576 (2008). PDF
N. Scafetta and B. J. West, “Is climate sensitive to solar variability?” Physics Today 3, 50-51 (2008). PDF
N. Scafetta, "Comment on ``Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system' by Schwartz." J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15104, doi:10.1029/2007JD009586. (2008). PDF
E. Kabela and N. Scafetta, “Solar Effect and Climate Change,” Bulletin of the american meteorological society, 89 -1, 34-35 (2008). PDF
To: All
An available ( for a fee) report:
Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)
**************************************************
This 880-page rebuttal of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), three years in the making, was released in June 2009 by The Heartland Institute. Coauthored and edited by S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., and Craig Idso, Ph.D. and produced with contributions and reviews by an international coalition of scientists, it provides an independent examination of the evidence available on the causes and consequences of climate change in the published, peer-reviewed literature examined without bias and selectivity. It includes many research papers ignored by the IPCC plus additional scientific results that became available after the IPCC deadline of May 2006.
Chapter 1 describes the limitations of the IPCC s attempt to forecast future climate with computer models. The IPCC violates many of the rules and procedures required for scientific forecasting, making its projections of little use to policymakers.
Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce the earth s sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2. Scientific studies suggest the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 level is much lower than the IPCC s estimate.
Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC s claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate.
Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and sea level rise. We find no evidence of trends that could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global warming of the twentieth century.
Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing number of scientists who say variations in solar activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of climate change. We describe the evidence of a solar-climate.
Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global warming will cause (or already is causing) more droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, storm surges, heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support in the peer-reviewed literature for these predictions and considerable evidence to support an opposite prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a warmer world.
Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. This is the largely unreported side of the global warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally good news. Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. It is a boon to the world s forests and prairies, as well as to farmers and ranchers and the growing populations of the developing world.
Chapter 8 examines the IPCC s claim that CO2-induced increases in air temperature will cause unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on land and in the world s oceans. We find there little real-world evidence in support of such claims and an abundance of counter evidence that suggests ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and CO2-enriched world.
Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC s claim that CO2-induced global warming is harmful to human health. The IPCC blames high-temperature events for increasing the number of cardiovascular-related deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever. The peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further global warming would likely do just the opposite and actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme thermal conditions.
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| Author: |
S. Fred Singer |
| Paperback: |
880 pages |
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1934791288 |
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Climate Change Reconsidered Feb 05, 2010
Beyond all of the controversy, so-called "agreed-to science",politics, financially-driven scams, internatioal intrigue and power plays, and outright
massive fraud, and dire forecasts on future catastrophe for mankind,---all relating to Climate Change and man-made climate warmig---this compilation
of peer-reviewed papers by eminent climatology and physical scientists on the real state of science on climate change reveal all of the flawed and
recently discovered distortions and conspiracies on the subject. For example, man-made ( anthropologenic) CO2 actually has exceedingly little
effect on climate .
3 of 3 found the following review helpful:
Man-Made Global Climate Change: Not so Fast! Nov 24, 2009
Unfortunately, politics has taken center stage in this issue. S. Fred Singer writes: "We regret that many advocates in this debate have chosen to give up debating the science and focus almost exclusively on questioning the motives of `skeptics', name-calling, and ad hominem attacks. We view this as a sign of desperation on their part, and a sign that the debate has shifted toward climate realism." (p. vii).
A petition rejecting the Kyoto accords and challenging the manmade-global-warming-is-proven-fact dogma has been signed by 12,711 scientists, including 3,803 scientists trained in atmospheric science and related fields. (p. 739-on). (Have they all been "bought off by corporations"?)
This scholarly collection of works specifically challenges many media-propagated notions on this subject, while including the latest views of those who defend these notions. Each chapter ends with a URL that can be visited for more information and for papers that have come out since this book was published.
Some of the questions raised in this one-volume encyclopedic work are: Do computer models adequately predict future climate? How reliable are long-term forecasts--even by experts? Is the "hockey stick" valid? Is the "iris effect" (negative feedback) caused by clouds overrated or underrated? How can the alleged man-caused global warming be said to be unprecedented when comparable episodes of warming occurred not only in the distant past, but also in the recent past? How can the rise in CO2 be blamed for global warming when there was a period of considerable warming only a thousand years ago (the Medieval Warm Period)--when CO2 was lower, and human industrialization was essentially nonexistent? What about the proven effect of solar variability on global climate? Is the decline and imminent disintegration of polar ice caps a reality? What about satellite climatic data? Is weather all over the earth actually getting more and more extreme?
Other questions deal with the biological effects of potential global warming. Are corals and polar bears really as fragile as they have been made out to be? Would warmer temperatures necessarily cause the spread of malaria? Why are plants and animals threatened by global warming when they have already successfully gone through many cycles of comparable warming and cooling since they appeared on our planet? And much, much more...
1 of 1 found the following review helpful:
Excellent Nov 08, 2009
If you want to learn what the skeptics are saying about "global warming", this book is for you.
1 of 1 found the following review helpful:
Rebuttal to global warming alarmists Nov 08, 2009
This compendium arms one with all the up-to-date information needed to show, unequivocally, that global warming and cooling are natural, solar-driven processes that occur over millenial time scales, independent of human activity. Omissions, inaccuracies and distortions in the IPCC reports are catalogued and refuted. This is an excellent resource for anyone seeking to explore and understand the science behind the natural climate cycles that the planet experiences.
2 of 2 found the following review helpful:
A scholarly book Oct 28, 2009
About nine years ago I blindly believed in the anthropogenic global warming idea. It was then that I was invited to a TV debate on global warming and I went deeper on this issue, trying to find information about the thermal properties of the carbon dioxide. This way, I realized that everything which I was ready to say before millions of spectators, which I have taken from the IPCC reports, was not true. If I only would have had this helpful book, written by honest scientists who really know about the science of climate, things would have been easier.
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
10
posted on
03/16/2010 11:02:17 AM PDT
by
editor-surveyor
(Democracy, the vilest form of government, pits the greed of an angry mob vs. the rights of a man)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
11
posted on
03/16/2010 2:58:56 PM PDT
by
neverdem
(Xin loi minh oi)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Tunehead54; Clive; Fractal Trader; tubebender; marvlus; Genesis defender; ...
12
posted on
03/16/2010 3:14:47 PM PDT
by
steelyourfaith
(Warmists as "traffic light" apocalyptics: "Greens too yellow to admit they're really Reds."-Monckton)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Thanks E. I had looked at this presentation last last night at WUWT.. Very interesting. Think I will bookmark for possible later download of full paper.
13
posted on
03/16/2010 6:15:41 PM PDT
by
Marine_Uncle
(Honor must be earned....)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
14
posted on
03/17/2010 2:34:49 AM PDT
by
Arthur Wildfire! March
(Weakening McCain strengthens our borders, weakens guest worker aka amnesty)
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