Posted on 02/09/2010 3:49:38 PM PST by JoeProBono
We're all aware of the two mega-recalls of Toyota vehicles. The quick and easy explanation is that "cars are too complicated" and "cars have too many processors and too much software."
Certainly, there is some truth to that (software-controlled cars creep me out), but the sticking-accelerator problem has nothing to do with electronics; it's a mechanical problem with a mechanical solution. But the real problem which designers of mass-market, high-volume products really face is the law of large numbers. When you have tens or hundreds of thousands of a product out in the market, some of its incredibly obscure and subtle problems will surface.
These the secondary and tertiary effects are the manifestations of data points and sequences which are severe outliers, residing on the edges of that Gaussian curve. From an engineering standpoint, unfortunately, it's almost impossible to test for these circumstances.
Even if a designer diligently does life tests on a reasonable number of units, they will not uncover problems which occur only in extremely low numbers. It's one thing to stress-test a few hundred cars for tens of thousands of miles, but the truly rare problems which arise from hundreds of thousands of units are very different.
This testing dilemma became very clear to me when I met with the team at Tufts University which developed one of the wet labs on the Mars Phoenix Lander (See EE Times' story here:"Mars lander's chem lab is NASA's MECA"). The instrumentation package had a small drawer which had to open once--but only once--after the long and cold journey through space. I asked them what their biggest design challenge was, and they told me it was guaranteeing that the drawer mechanism would work. The problem was that it had to work once, and only once. Testing the mechanism over and over would not prove that it would work that critical first cycle, which is the only one that mattered.
The alternative test strategy would be to build hundreds, or even thousands, of these mechanisms and test them each once, which was obviously impractical. They did a lot of modeling, analysis, simulation, and tests, but in the end, could never prove with absolute certainty that the drawer would actually open that first time (which it did).
To those pundits in media who so quickly criticize the Toyota problem as a result of poor engineering and inadequate testing, I say "you have no idea what you are talking about." It's only because the basic design is so good and reliable, and the number of units on the road is so large, that these problems can even have a chance to appear. The law of large numbers is tough to work around, and does not yield easily to amendments.
If complexity were the problem, BMWs would be death traps, especially the iDrive models.
It is more about how prodigious they are. There are just so many cars out there, statistically there will be issues arise. I would bet though that the number of incidents as of a percent of the model on the road would be microscopic and statistically in line with other models.
This is not about Toyota’s engineering. This is about getting UAW workers from dead GM and Chrysler into Toyota’s non-union (transplant) factories in the USA. This is about the UAW getting in ALL the transplant factories - Nissan, Honda, BMW, Hyundai, etc etc.
People are so dumb because they cannot see what is really going on.
I noticed this was from the EE Times. You can’t spell “geek” without a double E.
Excuse my naivte, but how do you get from a massive recall to the UAW organizing foreign car builders with plants in the USA? Can you illuminate the intermediate steps for me?
Actually, the only thing Toyota is doing is making a physical fix, adding a small shim at the end of the accelerator pedal. However, the famous case that brought this to public attention (the horrifying incident involving the CHP member and his family) was actually a result of the fact that the car, which was a loaner they had never driven before, had a keyless ignition and they didn’t know how to turn it off once the mat, an extra long one that had been added by the dealer, got stuck under the pedal. They were calling for help in turning it off, but nobody knew the answer.
So the complexity is a problem for the user, although I’m sure once keyless ignitions become common, we’ll all know how to manage them - or perhaps a safety switch of some kind will be installed.
That said, this is a combination of Bambi’s desire to attack Government Motors’ biggest competitor, combined with total ineptitude on the part of the Japanese when it came to handling publicity. Toyota should not have kept silent but should have been out there immediately trying to handle this and prove its integrity. Instead, they dallied and let Obama seize the moment.
There is a report out there that State Farm warned the government back in 2007 of an unusually high number of claims involving Toyotas.
An outstanding article. Absolutely spot-on.
(BTW - what ever happened to Travis T. OJustice?)
I’d love roll down windows...and that little vent window. I also think the high beam on the floor was a better option. And I’d like a governor, too.
Those of us who closely follow the industry are only surprised by the magnitude of the recalls. Toyota tried to do the impossible: dramatically increase production, open new plants, enter new markets and launch new brands - all at the same time.
I don’t know...he hasn’t posted to me in a while!
Go back to carburetors and purely mechanical engines...they sound better
Haven’t seen him either.
Isn’t clamming season either.
Ehhh...simple things screw up too.
A sticking gas pedal in a Toyota can’t be any more scary than the throttle return spring breaking on my ‘68 vette.
That got my attention.........
I used to drive way out in the boonies, before cellphones, with a handful of spare parts in the glove box, and be pretty confident of solving the most likely problems. If you break down in the boonies now you are probably SOL if you’re out of cellphone range.
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