Aw, not this sh*t again.
Posted on 10/24/2009 4:16:49 AM PDT by Swordmaker
I think the saying goes that those that don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.
This is likely to point with Apple this month as they sit stunned that Windows 7 is doing so well and they are left looking foolish with products priced out of the segment. Their big news this week was a couple of PCs, a new keyboard and a multi-touch mouse. This last will likely go down in history as one of the lamest devices yet as they should know, given the iPhone, that touch is connected to the screen and not anything else. They likely would have done better putting fir on the damn thing and building it to fart the star spangled banner at least that would have been patriotic.
Apple is clearly one of the strongest marketing companies in any industry and Steve Jobs is a considered to be a master while Microsoft in recent years hasn’t really seemed to be in their league. This goes to the core, no pun intended, of how Microsoft blindsided Apple and left the firm looking like they had given the PC market back to Microsoft. The other part is that Apple is now fighting on two fronts against two powerful companies for the first time since the 80s. Let’s talk about this while we think of that poor challenged Apple mouse.
Windows 95 and Historic Mistakes
Apple, back in 1995, while Steve Jobs was on his forced vacation from the company I met with them and suggested they needed to bring up their game because Windows 95 had a lot of positive buzz and they were in danger of being trivialized. The Apple executives, most of whom were let go in the following years or fired by Steve Jobs, told me they had it well in hand and that, after all, Windows 95 was simply a bad copy of the 1988 version of the MacOS.
A few record selling days, and lines around the block, later they felt differently but were unprepared to take advantage of Microsoft’s mistake and so began what was a slide into bankruptcy saved only by Steve Jobs return. The mistake that Microsoft made was they hadn’t budgeted for sustaining marketing. This allowed Apple a huge opportunity to point out Windows 95 problems and showcase their product in a favorable light. But they weren’t prepared and missed the opportunity.
However Microsoft made this same mistake every year following and Steve Jobs finally started to pick up on this with Vista and the Mac vs. PC campaign is his historic response to Microsoft’s classic mistake. But the mistake was in two parts, a product that had problems at release and an inability to market the product’s advantages because the Microsoft team had no money left.
Windows 7: A New Hope
Windows 7 is coming out of the gate with only one known issue and that appears to be tied to problematic Flash update Adobe did in August that most may never actually see. Not only is this a short problem list the issue should track quickly back to Adobe and not damage the launch much. In edition Microsoft didn’t blow their entire budget before the product actually hit the stores and has a substantial sustaining marketing budget. This means, this time, both the product and the marketing program is in relatively good shape and instead of being tired and vulnerable, Microsoft is ready for war.
Steve Jobs and Apple clearly planned for the same traditional behavior and were completely unprepared for both the quality of Windows 7 and the fact Microsoft has a war chest this time. Their near pathetic recent release of a couple slightly improved PCs and a couple peripherals showcases this. They figured they could easily skate through the next few months because, traditionally, Microsoft would be vulnerable and not able to fight back.
Second Front
However this isn’t their only problem. Verizon, Google and Motorola have opened a second front with the Droid iCan’t campaign (this is actually rather funny) that targets the iPhones weaknesses. None of these companies has any love for Apple. Verizon thinks Apple has been trying to blackmail them into a contract they don’t want to sign, Google’s CEO was just fired from their board and Apple booted Google Voice from the iPhone, and Motorola was burned by the ROKR joint venture with Apple. Each of these companies thinks of Apple as a firm they would like to squash and while separately they represent little risk, collectively they are the strongest carrier (in terms of size and customer satisfaction), the most powerful web company, and the firm who had the hot phone (Razor) before the iPhone.
This combination of the Microsoft budget and the Droid attack splits Apple’s resources and focus and makes it vastly more difficult for the firm to respond timely or well. The end result is an unprecedented exposure.
Wrapping Up:
Two good lessons here, even when you are on top it is very foolish to under estimate a competitor with Microsoft’s resources because they can actually get it right, and picking too many fights at once can take out the most powerful of entities just as it took out a nearly unbeatable Germany in the second world war.
With Steve Jobs in Apple the firm can respond to threats like this one very quickly but only if they see it coming in time. I think they are likely to repeat the 1995 mistake and that means they probably won’t be either quick enough or effective enough to dodge this bullet. However, this is Apple after all and this fight is still young, it would also be very foolish to count them out early.
Regardless of the outcome, we are seeing history made this week and it’s an amazing time to be alive.
Rob Enderle is one of the last Inquiry Analysts. Inquiry Analysts are paid to stay up to date on current events and identify trends and either explain the trends or make suggestions, tactical and strategic, on how to best take advantage of them. Currently he provides his services to most of the major technology and media companies.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.
Something tells me he's also the receptionist and janitor there.
Enderle apparently never considered the ergonomic problems with large vertical touch screens referred to as "gorilla arm".
I own a Mac Pro and an iPhone, but unlike so many I haven’t drunk the kool-aide.
You know why Apples are so reliable?
For the same reason if after buying a car, the car company tells you, “Thanks for buying our car, but you can only drive on our own roads, you can only use our tires, you can only use our gas, and if the car breaks down you can only use our parts.”
Complete control equals reliablity because you preclude any variables.
I know Apple says that, “It’s a high fence guarding a pristine garden.” But this high fence also mean you can charge a lot more money for anything you sell, because they can’t go anywhere else.
Aw, not this sh*t again.
Don’t forget to feed the beast. Some of us are unaware of what they actually represent.
I like Apple’s imagination and innovation. Sometimes it seems that style overcomes common sense or practicality but the products they produce look great and work very well.
They have a high build quality, a good support network and the Apple operating system, built on a strong, Unix foundation, has an appealing look and feel.
What they don’t have is the integration of Servers and Desktops that are important in business. The future for Apple in the office is not good. Using at home what you have at work is a powerful factor.
Further, adding PC capability to a Mac costs about $200 to $300, often a deal breaker in a tough market.
The worst thing about Apple is their contempt for PCs and PC users that shows in their advertising and their fan base. I guess it’s a defensive mechanism but, more emphasis on strengths of operation and usability will gain them more share than the superficial promotions of the past.
I’m in the market for a new MacBook Pro, so one upside of this for me is maybe Apple will cut their prices a little.
Believe it or not, a number of conservative talkradio show hosts are Mac fans. :)
Wait till the hackers start putting new viruses together to “test” Windows 7, since new Windows operating systems get tested in that way.
....Plus Macs last longer then PC’s.
Tired of Apple keeping you on the plantation?
I have W7 on both my computers. Installation was a breeze, no reinstalling of software, and my computer is faster. So far, so good.
Plus also I have a friend who is a local conservative talkradio show host who just got a new Mac Book Pro.:)
Then again, Bill Gates is the largest single contributor to UN Population Control....ABORTION...in the world. Why would I finance the liberal culture of death by buying anything associated with Microsoft?
Well the fan-girlies are out in force here. You guys probably drive Volkswagens (or Saturns (for a completely and much more frightening reason)). You identify with your technology.
I see you every day. I work in IT. You know what - my coworkers and I put our feet up on the desk drink coffee and tell stories about you. The cool pastel shirt.....
All - Have a good weekend
Why are you asking us? We're down on MSFT stuff.
she probably answers the phoneShe would, but it never rings. :') And people complain about AT&T's coverage...
Reads like FUD to me. I have Win7 on a new Toshiba laptop. It’s a big improvement over Vista. However, I would MUCH prefer OS X to be on here (probably never happen) or a flavor of Linux. OS X just works without issue.
Hey, at least we can see how he got his nick’. :’)
I just bought my MacBook 17” for less than $1800 and notice that the entry level 17” PC with W7 is $1500. I’ll spring for the other $300 not to deal with another PC mess, mystery viruses (in spite of diligent efforts with McAfee and Spybot and lots of scanning).
I will run W7 with Parallel for the stuff I have to but do so with great trepidation.
Enderle is criticized by informed technology watchers because of his consistent errors of fact and poor record on predictions. He often cites urban legends (such as Apple "stealing" the GUI from Xerox PARC) as fact. In 2006, he told O'Reilly Media that Apple does not use non-disclosure agreements, when in fact Apple uses them pervasively -- including for all developers who receive its OS previews. Enderle has worked as an advisor for Microsoft, Dell, and Toshiba, among others. He has admitted that: his analyses are affected by personal situations unrelated to technologies, and that he has accused other analysts of being paid fronts incorrectly and with no evidence.Thanks BunnySlippers. Wanted it up here before some nimrod tried to purge it.
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