Posted on 10/24/2009 4:16:49 AM PDT by Swordmaker
I think the saying goes that those that dont learn from history are destined to repeat it.
This is likely to point with Apple this month as they sit stunned that Windows 7 is doing so well and they are left looking foolish with products priced out of the segment. Their big news this week was a couple of PCs, a new keyboard and a multi-touch mouse. This last will likely go down in history as one of the lamest devices yet as they should know, given the iPhone, that touch is connected to the screen and not anything else. They likely would have done better putting fir on the damn thing and building it to fart the star spangled banner at least that would have been patriotic.
Apple is clearly one of the strongest marketing companies in any industry and Steve Jobs is a considered to be a master while Microsoft in recent years hasnt really seemed to be in their league. This goes to the core, no pun intended, of how Microsoft blindsided Apple and left the firm looking like they had given the PC market back to Microsoft. The other part is that Apple is now fighting on two fronts against two powerful companies for the first time since the 80s. Lets talk about this while we think of that poor challenged Apple mouse.
Windows 95 and Historic Mistakes
Apple, back in 1995, while Steve Jobs was on his forced vacation from the company I met with them and suggested they needed to bring up their game because Windows 95 had a lot of positive buzz and they were in danger of being trivialized. The Apple executives, most of whom were let go in the following years or fired by Steve Jobs, told me they had it well in hand and that, after all, Windows 95 was simply a bad copy of the 1988 version of the MacOS.
A few record selling days, and lines around the block, later they felt differently but were unprepared to take advantage of Microsofts mistake and so began what was a slide into bankruptcy saved only by Steve Jobs return. The mistake that Microsoft made was they hadnt budgeted for sustaining marketing. This allowed Apple a huge opportunity to point out Windows 95 problems and showcase their product in a favorable light. But they werent prepared and missed the opportunity.
However Microsoft made this same mistake every year following and Steve Jobs finally started to pick up on this with Vista and the Mac vs. PC campaign is his historic response to Microsofts classic mistake. But the mistake was in two parts, a product that had problems at release and an inability to market the products advantages because the Microsoft team had no money left.
Windows 7: A New Hope
Windows 7 is coming out of the gate with only one known issue and that appears to be tied to problematic Flash update Adobe did in August that most may never actually see. Not only is this a short problem list the issue should track quickly back to Adobe and not damage the launch much. In edition Microsoft didnt blow their entire budget before the product actually hit the stores and has a substantial sustaining marketing budget. This means, this time, both the product and the marketing program is in relatively good shape and instead of being tired and vulnerable, Microsoft is ready for war.
Steve Jobs and Apple clearly planned for the same traditional behavior and were completely unprepared for both the quality of Windows 7 and the fact Microsoft has a war chest this time. Their near pathetic recent release of a couple slightly improved PCs and a couple peripherals showcases this. They figured they could easily skate through the next few months because, traditionally, Microsoft would be vulnerable and not able to fight back.
Second Front
However this isnt their only problem. Verizon, Google and Motorola have opened a second front with the Droid iCant campaign (this is actually rather funny) that targets the iPhones weaknesses. None of these companies has any love for Apple. Verizon thinks Apple has been trying to blackmail them into a contract they dont want to sign, Googles CEO was just fired from their board and Apple booted Google Voice from the iPhone, and Motorola was burned by the ROKR joint venture with Apple. Each of these companies thinks of Apple as a firm they would like to squash and while separately they represent little risk, collectively they are the strongest carrier (in terms of size and customer satisfaction), the most powerful web company, and the firm who had the hot phone (Razor) before the iPhone.
This combination of the Microsoft budget and the Droid attack splits Apples resources and focus and makes it vastly more difficult for the firm to respond timely or well. The end result is an unprecedented exposure.
Wrapping Up:
Two good lessons here, even when you are on top it is very foolish to under estimate a competitor with Microsofts resources because they can actually get it right, and picking too many fights at once can take out the most powerful of entities just as it took out a nearly unbeatable Germany in the second world war.
With Steve Jobs in Apple the firm can respond to threats like this one very quickly but only if they see it coming in time. I think they are likely to repeat the 1995 mistake and that means they probably wont be either quick enough or effective enough to dodge this bullet. However, this is Apple after all and this fight is still young, it would also be very foolish to count them out early.
Regardless of the outcome, we are seeing history made this week and its an amazing time to be alive.
Rob Enderle is one of the last Inquiry Analysts. Inquiry Analysts are paid to stay up to date on current events and identify trends and either explain the trends or make suggestions, tactical and strategic, on how to best take advantage of them. Currently he provides his services to most of the major technology and media companies.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.
Amazing. Mac OS X is one of the four fully certified UNIX OSes on the market. There are thousands of science and engineering apps that run on UNIX. In addition, OS X can compile and run any of the 1000s of Linux apps for science and engineering. Now, add that an Intel based Mac (any Mac made in the last four years) can run 100% of Windows apps and your assertion falls flat on its face. You should see the number of Macs found at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Looks like seven to me. . . and it's a Mac.
My hubby has been ooggling that thing since it appear the other day. I’m thinking that sometime after the first of the year we will have one of those. I keep teasing him though that he’ll need sunscreen with that huge monitor.
My life was immeasurably blessed by Steve Jobs, Apple and the Mac.
I changed careers when Dr. Paul and Aldus released PageMaker and Apple released postscript printers, and I’ve upgraded since then to InDesign, Photoshop and Dreamweaver and my current batch of Macs. They’ve allowed me to be successful and happy in my career.
I’ve tried PC’s but they don’t work as good at handling large files, CMYK color spaces and exporting files to service bureaus.
Jobs and Apple are excellence personified, I’ve seen it with my own eyes for many, many years, and yeah, they’re liberal, but ALL OF SILICON VALLEY IS LIBERAL.
Microsoft, Google, Oracle, they’re all hard-core Leftists, if you want to take the attitude that you must only use conservative computer programs, you’d probably be limited to Corel in Utah and HP in Boise...and even then I’d have my doubts about how conservative they are.
Ed
I use a Wacom tablet for that...great, fantastic tool for drawing vectors and paths, as well as Photoshop graphics like the paint brush.
Wacom just came out with a new tablet, I might try one of them...
Ed
Yeh, that pretty much accurately describes the IT people where I work, also. I just wish you folks knew more about systems and software than our typical new hire in just about any non-IT field.
I loved that ad. We watched it during the execrable Office wedding show, and everyone in the room started laughing as PC aged backwards into 1980’s Windows 3.11 garb, cool pants, sunglasses and all.
Funny thing was, I’m the only Mac user and everyone else uses XP, yet we all laughed.
One woman, in fact, said “Those Mac commercials are always funnier to watch than the actual TV shows!”
Ed
Parallels costs about $80-90, I’m not sure what VM Ware options are. XP home is $89 and Pro is about $150. So that adds up to $170-$230 to run Windows programs on the Mac unless you want to use BootCamp which requires a reboot to get into Windows.
Recently QuickBooks came out with a Mac version but is has less capability and features than the PC version.
Last time I looked, one of the the biggest selling software packages on the MAC was Microsoft Office. Is that still true?
This summer Microsoft ran a promo for Windows 7 upgrade for $40 and has the family pack 3 user for about $150.
So what was your point?
I run two monitors, one a 31” Cinema Display for the main screen, the other one a SyncMaster 21” for my tool sets.
I use Spaces to create four virtual workspaces, and in each of those spaces I’ll typically have Dreamweaver, Flash, Photoshop, InDesign and Safari, and in each of those programs I could have anywhere from five to fiteen tabs open.
Sounds chaotic, I admit, but the Quad handles it with aplomb, nary a choke or stutter.
The Macs are fantastic machines.
Ed
WTF is this sophomoric nonsense?
Actually, VirtualBox is free. As in beer.
That brings the cost down to $89 to $150, maybe lower if you snag the OEM versions of Windows.
Nothing recent about it... Quickbooks has been available for Macs for at least a decade, and the Pro version from 2003. I agree about the features and capability. Try Mind Your Own Business's AccountEdge. Excellent accounting, good support, and a built in payroll package as well as offering a payroll service.
Huh? Apple uses Intel's i7 chip, even in their new iMac. They've often used AMD (ATI) video chips, even if they seem to be on a solid NVidia kick right now.
I'm happy that Win7 is a better OS than Vista, especially that it's pared down (I run Vista on occasion in a virtual machine, just for software & website testing purposes.) I also want Apple spurred on to greater innovation. But Windows fans can be so backwards with their analyses....
Is it that high? Junior High seems more like it.
How much did Microsoft pay for this article?
Actually I don’t deal with software and systems - thats for the drones - sitting in the cubicle staring at a monochrome screen.
I actually have a pretty comprehensive job non-IT job history. The problem is I’m not one of the fan kiddies enamored with and having to define myself by what I buy, wear, drive. You will notice that I did not gush about one or the other system(s). I am on my third career - retired out of two completely different non-IT careers (Military and Locomotive Engineer) so I have a pretty good view of the lifestyle of the young and impressionable. Laughing about how intense people get about stuff that really doesn’t matter is something we all can do. Sorry if I roughed up your sensibility’s.
I hope you are doing some new hiring per your post - there are a lot of people who need it.
Have a good weekend!
Surround yourself with the best people you can find, delegate authority, and don’t interfere as long as the policy you’ve decided upon is being carried out. - Ronald Reagan
Microsoft employees contributed much more to Obama than Apple employees. Both as a total amount and as a percentage of.
Hey there! When your wife got my G4 I inherited my husband’s G4 (same vintage!) which had more power and memory-needed because I got into video editing and DVD’s. He got an aluminum G4. Now we’re both getting MacBook Pros-15” (our Christmas gifts to each other).
I think we’ve gotten our money’s worth!
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