Posted on 07/31/2009 9:07:59 AM PDT by politicket
Folks, it’s COMPLETE manipulation of the numbers taking place. Here are the facts to prove it:
Here’s today’s GDP report: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE).
Please note that GDP is reported on a “Quarter-Over-Quarter” basis instead of “Year-Over-Year”. However, the number is “annualized” (multiplied by 4), and it is based off of the previous quarter’s GDP.
Let’s crunch the numbers….
Please notice on the very first page of the report how first quarter GDP WAS REVISED TO -6.4% FROM ITS ORIGINAL -5.5%!
In other words, ALL of the numbers for the second quarter were BASED ON the revised number from the first quarter.
Let’s find the actual GDP drop for the first quarter, since it was reported in an annualized fashion: -6.4% / 4 = -1.6% for Quarter 1
OK, now they’re saying that the GDP drop for the second quarter was -1.0% annualized, or: -1.0 / 4 = -0.25% for Quarter 2
Put all of this in real dollars. Let’s pretend that the GDP for the U.S. was $100 at the beginning of 2009. After the first quarter our GDP would be reduced by 1.6%: $100 – ($100)(1.6%) = $100 - $1.60 = $98.40.
The second quarter GDP is based on the results from the first quarter GDP. So now we have $98.40 that gets reduced by 0.25%: $98.40 – ($98.40)(0.25%) = $98.40 - $0.25 = $98.15.
Our TOTAL GDP thus far in 2009 (six months) will have decreased from $100 to $98.15, or -1.85%. Our annualized GDP loss for 2009 based on this number would be -1.85% x 2 (two six month periods) = -3.7% (A depression would be an annualized loss of -10%).
But remember, all of these numbers are based on the FIRST QUARTER REVISION DOWN TO -6.4%. What if we use the original -5.5% first quarter GDP number? What would the second quarter GDP have been to give us our -3.7% annualized drop in GDP that we just calculated?
Here are the numbers:
A first quarter annualized GDP loss of -5.5% would equate to a quarterly loss of: -5.5% / 4 = -1.375%.
Using our example from above where 2009 GDP starts out at $100 we have a value of: $100 – ($100)(1.375%) = $100 - $1.38 = $98.62.
Now here’s the QUESTION OF THE DAY! We still need to get our final GDP number down to $98.15, like we had in our first example. This will take another drop of: $98.62 - $98.15 = $0.47 to get there! WHAT PERCENTAGE DROP FROM $98.62 WILL IT TAKE FOR US TO GET THERE? In other words: $98.62 – ($98.62)(???) = $98.15 ---- OR ----- $98.62 - $98.15 = ($98.62)(???) ---- OR ---- ??? = ($98.62 - $98.15) / $98.62 ----- OR ---- ??? = $0.47 / $98.62 ---- OR ---- ??? = -0.477%
Remember, ALL of the economic projections for second quarter GDP were BASED on a first quarter drop of -5.5%. These predictions ranged from -1.2 to -1.5 in size.
Folks, here is the VERY important point. Our second quarter annualized GDP loss was (-0.477%)(4) = -1.9%
What’s this telling us? It’s telling us that the second quarter GDP result was far WORSE than analyst expectations! The only thing that made it SEEM better was the government manipulating the FIRST QUARTER number down by a significant degree. If the analysts had KNOWN that the first quarter would be revised to -6.4% then they would have had different expectations for second quarter GDP.
The government and media propagandists are out in FULL FORCE today – counting on the fact that our country does not understand their number manipulations.
All Commies Lie. It is the only way they stay in power.
Newspeak ... beware the revisions — LOL
Newspeak, the language of Oceania, one of the three large superstates, run by the Ingsoc Party(English Socialism). In America, we watch big brother, in Oceania, big brother watches you.
Ingsoc is stated to have originated following a socialist revolution, but as The Party is constantly rewriting history it is impossible to tell precisely how it occurred. It is known, however, that Oceania was established following the merger of the Americas with the British Empire. Big Brother and Emmanuel Goldstein were said to have led this revolution, with Goldstein eventually changing sides and turning against Big Brother. In addition to rewriting history, The Party is also constantly rewriting the language to restrict the true meanings of words and the ideas behind them, hence, “English Socialism” became the shorter and more esoteric “Ingsoc.”
Gearge Orwell, the futurist?
news! How did the media cover this?
As I read this string’s headline, it struck me that a wholesale change in sentiment has taken place in America. The reasonable majority in the middle (that 60% of dutiful citizens who usually remain dispassionate...fight our wars, run our systems and companies, pay the bulk of our taxes); have gone from skeptical about market manipulation, government statements, veracity of politicians’ claims to downright universal scoffing and incredulity.
It also struck me that the process over these frighteningly fast eighteen months reminds me of a treatise I read on Paris in the days leading up to the French Revolution. It appeared that the public just lost all belief in the actions or interest of the crown. There was a wholesale collapse of credibility which emboldened the people. I now believe we are entering or are in that period here and it’s a pretty scarey moment of realization.
How long it lasts or how rough it gets remains to be seen but when it happened in France, when they crossed the Rubicam in the mind of the body politic, things accelerated at an alarming rate. To quote that old Hollywood film, “Hang on to your seats gentlemen, we are in for a bumpy night.”
Hey don’t forget Soma.
As my 21 year old daughter whom is a student at Boulder points out, you have to be stoned to accept over the top government intervention in these liberal enclaves, thus they legalize pot.
That’s a lot of math, but try this: 6.4-5.5=0.9+1.0=1.9
Even taking their numbers at face value, I considered the report to be VERY bad news. I am getting really tired of the media reporting Bad news that is not as bad as they expected to be, therefore, good news.
I’ve seen this from time to time over the last couple of years. It is comical.
My attitude is in my tagline.
When you’re standing in six inches of water in your living room, then a foot, then two feet, all the time hearing the weather man saying it is GOOD that the flooding is subsiding or not as serious as expected, I basically start doing this:
I listen to the weather man for comic relief and, at a very core level, have no respect for the words or opinion of the weather man.
I stopped taking the MSM seriously regarding this issue well over a year ago. I saw this GDP headline on my.Yahoo and immediately started chuckling.
You're correct. I just try to paint a picture of how the number was arrived at.
I get the same feeling
That makes better sense than this continuing spin that things are improving.
Anyone who is out and about can just “feel’ much less observe that things are really bad.
936,400 votes as of 10:00 am, 7.31.09
Q. The president's progress with the battered economy has been both praised and criticized. How well are his efforts measuring up with you?
Extremely well. We are undoubtedly moving in the right direction. 14%
Fairly well. There's still a long way to go. 9%
Not well at all. His plans are hurting more than helping. 76%
Not sure/No opinion. 2%
Remember when the media went after Reagan and Bush for fawning on the stock market for the rich while the real economy faltered lol.
Now, watch Obama at 1 15 take credit for the market rebound...which will eventually fizzle or maybe even crash imo.
Thanks for posting.
What a surprise - DC manipulating stats for political gain. The problem is, most people buy this bs including a lot of the MSM.
If this incentive (our tax dollars) creates demand, imagine the demand if our tax dollars fund 100% of the purchase price of a new car!
It's magic I tell ya, it's magic!
“It’s magic I tell ya, it’s magic!”
—
Some call him the “magic negro”.
Essentially accurate.
The expectations WERE for a -1.5% figure today.
These were not reached due to improvement in inventory and other items, due to the revision of the 1Q figures down by -0.9%. I won’t have a chance to go through specifics until this evening.
!@#$%^&*()_+
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