Posted on 07/10/2009 9:00:55 AM PDT by Abathar
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association officially announced that we will experience the El Nino phenomenon this year through to 2010.
El Nino has arrived. With a 1 degree Celsius increase in a band of the eastern Pacific Ocean, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association made the announcement yesterday. The climate phenomenon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, that warms the eastern Pacific waters, decreases trade winds, and shows up every three to seven years, last came in 2006.
It’s known to cause droughts in Southeastern Asia and floods in Central and South America, as well as bring damaging storms to the U.S. Possible below-average rains in Australia and Asia this could severely affect their crops in wheat, sugar and rubber.
But El Nino is also known to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.
The National Weather Service predicts increased vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and this limits hurricanes, so they’re predicting an average season. But a recent paper in the journal Science predicts a change in this year’s El Nino, where is forms closer to the Central Pacific, rather than in the Eastern Pacific. It’s called El Nino Modoki, and this change predicts more hurricanes with higher chances of hitting land.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center will post August 6. Stay tuned.
Just wait, it’s comming.
A cyclical weather pattern that has been occuring for centuries. Must be due to global warming.
Wow, who would have thought it would be occurring now?
Is this another undocumented immigrant story?
And, how long will it take for ACORN to have it registered to vote in the next election?
For some reason the image of Chris Farley playing El Nino on SNL popped into my head.
Maybe they've gotten the message that the earth has been cooling for years. It's hard for grant dwellers to overcome the Gore noise machine...
2 days ago Price Edwards Island saw frost for the first time ever in July.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/enso.current.html
The best way to see El Nino is to look off the west coast of the north half of South America (that wasn’t so hard, was it?) I like the SST animation on this page, but it doesn’t really show El Nino yet. Look for a band of red color.
What will be most interesting is if instead of going into full blown El Nino again, it peters out after September and turns neutral.
Come to think of it, weren’t there supposed to be dramatic sunspots by now? That is, with that “solar jet stream” theory?
This will make the AGW fanatics happy!
SO, either we'll have more hurricanes, or less. Or, they might be the same.
I need to get a job as a 'journalist'. OR better yet, a hurricane predictor.
BULL!!!
Here’s the rules(see pg24): “Historical Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/-0.5 oCfor the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)], calculated with respect to the 1971-2000 base period. For historical purposes El Niño and La Niña episodes are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.”
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The last 3-mother period was April-May-June and it was “+.02”... the requirement is +.05 for 5 periods!!!
Let’s see if the Pacific continues to warm for the next 5 months
I’m with you, where else can you completely blow it day in and day out year after year and still get your annual CoL raises and paid vacations?
Other than working for the State Department or the NYT that is, the only other job better would be playmate photographer.
Down here in Texas, it’s been 100° + for a month. Hottest June ever. I look at the forecasts for cities to the north and am seeing highs that are lower than our lows. Maybe El Niño will bring us some rain.
Here in Indiana it has been a very nice cool summer so far. The farmers don’t like it because the corn is slower coming up, but it makes for cheaper AC that’s for sure.
You’re not kidding.
We haven’t had a day above 90 since April. And there’s only been a couple above 80. (We average about 85 in July). We’ve had too much rain.
Last night Connecticut broke a record low temperature (47 F).
My grass has never stayed so green for so long. I get the feeling that we’re going to pay for it this winter.
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