Apple Apps "Bubble" Talk Just That, As Downloads Soar

CNBC ^ | 12/05/2008 | By:Jim Goldman

[Swordmaker]

You may have seen the Apple advertisement in the New York Times this morning (back page of the Business section) extolling the virtues of the iPhone. Nothing new there.

If you made it through the fine print, you may have noticed that there are now 10,000 applications available for iPhone and the iPod Touch available on the App Store. Nothing new there, either.

What is new, and absolutely stunning, is the small print at the bottom of today's ad. Apple now says that iPhone users have "downloaded over 300 million" applications from the App Store, from games to business programs. Why is that stunning? Consider that on the company's conference call on October 21, Apple disclosed that the following day, Apple expected users to download their 200 millionth app. Which means, as of today, users have downloaded a staggering 100 million apps in just the past 6 weeks.

So all that talk of a "bubble" in apps demand was just that, talk! Experts expected an initial big shot in the arm, and that demand would trail off as the weeks passed by. These figures suggest that the app store is only gaining momentum, and it's another big reason for users to choose iPhone over Research in Motion's [RIMM 39.49 2.29 (+6.16%) ] BlackBerry, which has a nascent app store of its own, but is nowhere near as robust as Apple's. The iPhone/iPod/iTunes/App Store eco-system just makes it that much easier to stay inside the Apple world, rather than having to search high and low on the net for music, movies and apps from one site to the next. And when it comes to new technology, "easy" is the name of the game.

"It's unbelievable," says Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster. "It's a differentiator. We think in '09, it's going to be a $1 billion market place and Apple will probably take about 30 percent of that. There's virtually no operating expense for them. They just approve the apps. It increases our confidence that" Apple can make these numbers.

Hell Freezes: Piper Lowers Apple Target I have written extensively about the importance of the Apple App Store to the iPhone; that iPhone is more a platform than merely another Apple device. The App Store could someday (maybe sooner than we thought?) match, or even supplant iTunes as a top profit center, and something that likely hasn't been figured into many earnings models. At least not to the extent that the store is growing today.

IPhone's momentum only stands to gain traction as more and more developers come up with new programs for customers to buy. It's a device that doesn't need conventional, hardware upgrading from Apple if there's a massive, grassroots movement to update the device by offering new programs. Thousands of them. And once again, the Apple model is working. Big time.

[dayglored]

> Oh, I know the iPod will play non-DRMed files. Doesn't play FLAC files, tho. ;)

Yeah, I haven't found that to be a problem myself, but your point is taken.

I got a little Samsung player about the size of a Flash thumb drive, 2GB, a couple years ago, that (after I got home with it) I learned only worked with Windows Media Player 10 (not 9, not 11). The first thing I did was find alternate firmware on a European site and a firmware downloader -- replaced its brain, and it became a useful device.

God I hate DRM ...

[dayglored]

> Well, people did actually buy Windows Vista....

What amazes me is that they CONTINUE to buy Vista, even though if you just ask politely, any major vendor will allow you to put XP on one of their computers.

I've played a little with Win7, and am sorry to say that so far, it's just Vista with a few default functions removed, "Vista" crossed out, and "Win7" written in crayon...

[smokingfrog]

That 3 glasses routine sounds just like me. Still, none of them ever seem to be exactly right.

[dayglored]

> Microsoft has been caught as being behind the “iPods only play DRM music” whispering campaign - they use it to either try to drive Zune sales, or to try to excuse the Zune DRM.

What??? Microsoft engage in a lying campaign??? Microsoft??? Fund efforts to undermine their competition with outright fabrications??? Why, I'm SHOCKED (*cough* SCO *cough*) SHOCKED I tell you!!!

[dayglored]

> That 3 glasses routine sounds just like me. Still, none of them ever seem to be exactly right.

Ain't that the truth. And every couple of years, it all shifts and drifts and ya have to get new ones, and then the cataracts start....

Getting old is teh sux0rz.

[CE2949BB]

I got a little Samsung player about the size of a Flash thumb drive, 2GB, a couple years ago, that (after I got home with it) I learned only worked with Windows Media Player 10 (not 9, not 11).

Oh, goodie!

The first thing I did was find alternate firmware on a European site and a firmware downloader -- replaced its brain, and it became a useful device.

I'm glad. :)

God I hate DRM ...

Everyone aware of it does. While I understand why content producers want DRM, it doesn't stop piracy and only frustrates legitimate users.

I purchased a couple PDFs a few years back that I can't do anything with now, because I'm no longer "authorized" to view them.

Apple gets bashed about it because they are the biggest target. It really isn't anything personal.

If Microsoft or the open source community had half the brains Apple does, it would be a different world.

[Swordmaker]

There you go. Enjoy!

Thank you for getting the obligatory FUD out of the way...

;^)>

[CE2949BB]

Getting old is teh sux0rz.

How about having perfect vision all of your life and then... one morning... waking up and you're nearsighted in one eye? ;)

And the ophthalmologist can't explain why it happened.

ha.

I'm still wondering what happened.

Haven't bought glasses, yet. Have a prescription. Somewhere.

[smokingfrog]

already done the cataracts thing - better than being blind but far from perfect

[dayglored]

> While I understand why content producers want DRM, it doesn't stop piracy and only frustrates legitimate users.

As a musician and songwriter, I certainly understand the copyright argument as it affects income. My gripe is that in fact the musicians and composers don't benefit from the DRM -- it's only for the pockets of the parasitic middlemen. I support eMusic.com and other indie-focussed outlets because they seem to be more connected to the writers and performers. Much as I like Apple's products, I don't patronize the iTunes store.

> I purchased a couple PDFs a few years back that I can't do anything with now, because I'm no longer "authorized" to view them.

Ouch! Yeah, that's a nasty one.

> Apple gets bashed about it because they are the biggest target. It really isn't anything personal.

That's good to know. ;-)

> If Microsoft or the open source community had half the brains Apple does, it would be a different world.

True, true.... but then, if Microsoft played nice, we'd lose the line of argument: "Yeah, Apple is closed and proprietary, but they're not as bad as Microsoft!".

And much as I love the open source folks (and have used Linux for most of a decade), I don't hold any foolish belief that they'll ever get out of their circular firing squad mentality. That will always remain a fairly anarchist segment, which is probably as it should be.

Apple seems to be doing well with the marketshare advantage in music players and fancy phones. So far, so good, they haven't become TOO evil yet.

I'd like to see Apple's computers get to about 30% market share. Microsoft can have 65%, and Linux will hold the rest. I fear that if Apple gets above 30%, they'll start getting evil, which would be a shame. They need to stay the underdog in computers.

[dayglored]

> I'm still wondering what happened.

Geez, that's awful, sorry to hear it! I've noticed that various things can affect my focus, but I haven't found anything that changes it permanently overnight.

> Haven't bought glasses, yet. Have a prescription. Somewhere.

Yeah, I hear that. Well, good luck finding the script, and I hope it solves the problem.

[SunkenCiv]

300,000,000 downloads... 100,000,000 in just the last six weeks!

And they did all that with a single button mouse?!? /joke alert

Thanks swordmaker.

[CE2949BB]

Yeah, I hear that. Well, good luck finding the script,

Ah, I can find it within minutes if I feel like it. Just, you know, it's admitting defeat.

and I hope it solves the problem.

Thanks. :)

[LimaLimaMikeFoxtrot]

One of the first downloads I got for the iphone was the U.S. Constitution.

Free at the app store.

[SmokingJoe]

“The funny thing is that looking at a movie on an iPod-sized screen is equivalent to watching a large screen TV from across a room”

You mean watching a movie on that tiny iPhone screen is the same as me and my family, sitting comfortably in our seats, and watching movies on our spiffy big screen HDTV in glorious HiDef? Where do you come up with this nonsense?

[sten]

so... when will there calls to ban iphones in moving vehicles? after all, all those gadgets on the tiny screen are very distracting while you drive

[aruanan]

You mean watching a movie on that tiny iPhone screen is the same as me and my family, sitting comfortably in our seats, and watching movies on our spiffy big screen HDTV in glorious HiDef? Where do you come up with this nonsense?

Sorry, you added the nonsense. I didn't say anything about more than one person watching it. I'm simply saying that for YOU, an individual, viewing an iPod in your hand 14 or so inches from your eyes is equivalent to watching a 3 foot wide screen from across the room. That's because both subtend the same angle. Doing so on an iPhone or iPod Touch would increase the equivalent screen width to about 4.2 feet.

[aruanan]

A big screen across the room allows my eyes to relax.

Yes, though this doesn't have anything to do with angles subtended. Draw a line from each side of a big TV across the room to your eye. As the distance decreases, the width between the lines decreases. Any screen that fits that width will take up as much visual space. This is why a movie on an iPod Classic can be comfortably watched without missing a lot of detail, even though it's a tiny little screen. Throw in a pair of good headphones and it's a pretty good experience.

[SmokingJoe]

“ I'm simply saying that for YOU, an individual, viewing an iPod in your hand 14 or so inches from your eyes is equivalent to watching a 3 foot wide screen from across the room”

Not for me it doesn't. I have watched videos on tiny screens, and then watched the same movies on my big HDTV screen. Its not even close. The HDTV wins by far. I don't know even one person who'd much rather watch a movie on an iPhone rather than on a big HDTV screen.
I am not sure where you are getting this piece of propaganda from.

[aruanan]

Not for me it doesn't.

I'm not talking about your subjective experience. I'm strictly talking about angles subtended. Any screen width that forms the base of that angle will take up as much visual space.