Posted on 10/29/2008 2:01:34 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
28 October 2008
In 2009 the US Will Be Forced to Selectively Default and Devalue Its Debt
We have seen estimates that next year the US will have to finance a $2 Trillion annual deficit. They may be able to push it further into the next Administration than that by the forbearance of the world, but not by much. We'd expect a significant drop in Treasuries by 2011 at the latest.
It should be obvious to anyone that we are approaching the apogee of the Treasury bubble, with the credit bubble having broken already.
When the Treasury says they are facing unprecedented challenges in financing the US public debt next year that is an understatement.
Once the deleveraging of the markets subsides, the dollar and Treasuries will drop, perhaps with some momentum, as the rest of the world realizes that the US has no choice but to default. This can be resolved in several ways, including continued subsidies from foreign sources in the form of virtual debt forgiveness, devaluation of the dollar, raising of taxes, and higher interest rates on debt.
The problem now is that the US has breached the point where it can service its debt out of real cash flows, and turning this around will require a severe devaluation of the US dollar.
Devaluation and selective default are the only foreseeable systemic alternatives. There are other exogenous paths of a more political nature such as consolidation and war that may color the default a slightly different color, but a selective default it remains.
This is the fundamental situation. Everything else is speculation and commentary.
Ping!
I have thought for a long time devaluation is the only choice they have in the end. I think hyperinflation will come after the election. How else can they pay off 65 trillion of debt and entitlement obligations like social security. They sure are not going to get much in taxes this year with all the losses.
I have heard about this. A prediction that spring 2009 will bring the bankruptcy of America.
In spite of all these grumblings, we still see commodity prices getting clobbered, which makes no sense.
Rumors are there are LARGE gold transactions going on now somewhere on the other side of $1,000 per ounce. But since they are “off-sheet”, the peasants never know about it.
At this point there is nothing that would surprise me.
So what market positions can one take to minimize the impact of devaluation if you get paid in dollars?
Commoddities will go up faster than they came down. Obviously they are flailing away with any idea of the moment to try to forestall the enevitable.
The dollar has been “devaluing” since Bush announced Devaluation 6 years ago.It has been a fairly smooth slope downward with one maybe two moments of acceleration in rate. What we are facing here is a sudden extreme acceleration in rate i.e. Weimar.
The way it is going to happen is to tighten "needs testing". If you have worked hard and saved your money you are screwed as to Social Security, Medicare etc.
Simple, really.
Obviously Obama is a committed communist. He will do away with all that. All enterprise and rations will be controlled from Washington. If he wins Krushchev will be proven correct. They will have buried us.
Easy, just start selling 60 year bonds. (/sarc)
Under an Obama presidency, “entitlements” to the Welfare Vulture Culture will go up, not down, while taxes “contributions,” “fees” — whatever grandiloquent variation he chooses to use) on those who are productive will skyrocket. Of course, good, decent, hardworking Americans will object, perhaps strenuously. At which time, President for Life Obama will summons the nationwide force of armed volunteers (aka: urban thugs) he has already threatened us with. And the Alinsky-Ayers engineered takeover will be complete. Remember where you heard it first.
after pouring all these dollars into the market recently, why hasn’t the dollar already become devalued ?
Trident.
Missile.
Subs.
Cheers!
I think the thugs will be outmatched by those bitter Americans that cling to their guns and religion. They may be able to control the cities, but even a thug has to eat.
I always find it amusing that NOBODY in gubmint ever even considers cutting spending. There is PLENTY of room to cut waste from the Federal budget and get our fiscal house in order. There is PLENTY of room to reform our confiscatory tax policies and bring most, if not all, of the corporate wealth that has been driven off shore back home, while at the same time stuffing gubmint coffers. Instead, all the serfs will be made to suffer while our "leaders" continue to bask in the luxury of their offices, meanwhile raping us (and our Treasury) with each passing day....
More carbon dioxide and particulate material in the atmosphere.....because we will be burning dollars in the fireplace!!
All on paper. Nobody has any cash and can not borrow.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.