Well, if I were a conservative, posting this on FR, a conservative web site, I might be more inclined to note the 21% conservatives for Obama. But, that just me. A conservative. For McCain-Palin.
I didn’t see your source url for the poll, so I have no comment.
However, I see on your graphic “IBD” and if that refers to Investors Business Daily, here are the contact information links in case you want to send them a comment:
http://www.investors.com/contact/
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/AboutUs.aspx
“* Age 12-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size”
They polled 1000 likely voters, which well could’ve meant only 50 18-24-year-olds who were registered and likely to vote.
A bunch of things don’t look quite right.
Parental status - parents/nonparents about the same?
Typically Republicans do better with parents.
Did they make about half their calls in the south?
McCain is doing 7% better in the south than his average,
the same as his average in the west, -3 in midwest, -10 in northeast.
But I like the primary number.
Either polls are crap, or polls are to be believed--pick one. Of course this all depends on the sampling, but what exactly IS the "right" sample--50-50 dems and reps? Where is the evidence that this country is 50-50, or 55-45, or whatever? A "bad" sample to some is one that shows more dems than reps, but isn't that accurate, especially in certain states/counties?
What I'd like to know is which are the most accurate polls in terms of prediction, and what would be considered "proper" samples for a national poll?
Because most polls do not predict anything--they're how things are NOW--but we treat them as predictors of what will occur on election day, when the only valid predictor is actual voting. And in the early voting, McCain is getting slaughtered.
But to say these things means one is a DUmmie, I guess. I long for the "party of adults" that can discuss reality--bad AND good news--and I hoped we were in that party.
Good Catch.
The pollster was unable to fill the quota cell for People 18-24 years old thus under representing that Demographic. And while they under represented the 18-24 cell they Over Represented some other age groups.
Bad Sampling, Bad Quota Management, Bad Data and Bad Results.
I’m sure someone just switched the numbers when preparing that spreadsheet. A mistake in preparing the “pretty” report.
OK Troll, sounds great, but the history of this poll is indisputably the most accurate poll in polling history.
But your short stay here at FR hinges on your starting date as well as what you reveal about yourself. Don’t make other long time troll sniffing Freepers get on to your case.
WE weed out moles here every day and it seems you may have brought on some unwanted attention.
I concur that number is out of whack, but I also thinkg the over 65 crowd giving McCain just a 46-40 lead is out of whack. I suspect McCain will win that ground by 10-15, and they are reliable voters, unlike the young crowd.
I think. You forgot to add the salient statement "I think" idicating that it is opinion and not fact.
2. The most important point. IBD put an asterisk next to the numbers of the 18-24 age group and at the bottom of the poll details, they stated:
*Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size
Now, don't you just feel foolish for posting this vanity, trying to dismiss the entire poll?
Please, this garbage isn’t worth flaming. Have a beer. Watch some “Sex and the City” reruns. Hug a kitten. And get over it.
I have seen other polls with similar internals. Also, there are several polls showing that that demo is not a strongly for Obama as the press would have you believe. I think there is more pressure in that group to behave in a certain manner but that may not lead them to actually vote that way or vote at all. When I was 24 and after some girl and she was for some cause like peace I was the biggest peacenik when she was around! Nothing new there. The worst was one of the hottest girls I ever dated was vegetarian man that was a tough year.
This poll was the most accurate in the 2004 election!
I don’t know how good the IBD poll is in general, however, it seems to be the only one (or one of the very few) out there that actually seems to weight party ID to something sane. To make their overall numbers fit their breakdown by party, the Democrats would have somewhere between a 2-3% edge in part ID, which is historically in the right ballpark, as opposed to other polls showing the Democrats with party ID advantages of 10-15%.
As for the 18-24 crowd, that subsample might just be an outlier, and they do note that the subsample is too small to be statistically significant.
Palin did it!!!!
Maybe you didn’t notice the footnote that there was a very small sample size for this demo?
Might just be a misprint. That happens. See if its corrected in a later poll.