[Darkwolf377]

What amuses me is how every thread about a poll here is crammed with comments that basically boil down to "polls are crap" and "this sample is a joke" and such, and yet every poll showing something like this one above is "proof" that Obama's toast.

Either polls are crap, or polls are to be believed--pick one. Of course this all depends on the sampling, but what exactly IS the "right" sample--50-50 dems and reps? Where is the evidence that this country is 50-50, or 55-45, or whatever? A "bad" sample to some is one that shows more dems than reps, but isn't that accurate, especially in certain states/counties?

What I'd like to know is which are the most accurate polls in terms of prediction, and what would be considered "proper" samples for a national poll?

Because most polls do not predict anything--they're how things are NOW--but we treat them as predictors of what will occur on election day, when the only valid predictor is actual voting. And in the early voting, McCain is getting slaughtered.

But to say these things means one is a DUmmie, I guess. I long for the "party of adults" that can discuss reality--bad AND good news--and I hoped we were in that party.

[John W]

How does the “early voting” compare as a percentage of what the final full vote will be?

I don’t think, at this point, it is any more significant than a poll.

And, while its great to be “adults” when discussing all this, some I think want to avoid the psychological effect of all this negative news. We don’t want anyone staying home November 4th because “its over”. There are those who want that to happen.

[FocusNexus]

“About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD’s polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.”

[diamond6]

“Either polls are crap, or polls are to be believed—pick one.”

The polls are crap, especially for this election. I don’t think you can prove anything by what you see - not the good ones and not the bad ones. The oversampling issue appears to be grossly overestimating this in Messiah’s favor.

I don’t believe this is over, but the MSM and pollsters sure want us to think that. I admit I’m concerned, but I still think there are so many underlynig factors that could change the dynamics of the actual voting (like no other election), and there is such a wide variance in the polls, that I don’t think we can get an accurate reading from any poll.

I think a lot of pollsters are going to be very surprised, but I’m not sure how it’s going to go at this point.