I'll get flamed for it, but I'll say it. The IBD poll is total nonsense.

[nobamanada]

Take a look at this poll's internals showing McCain leading among the 18-24 demographic by 74%-22%. Are you joking? It's likely the opposite of this in favor of Obama. I'm all for being an optimist, but does anyone seriously believe this nonsense?

[Cindy]

Thank you raybbr for your feedback.

I covered willfully ignorant voters in post no. 8 on this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2113718/posts?page=8#8

[John W]

Aren’t you the least bit suspicious of folks who’ve signed up the last two months who only post discouraging news, and seem to argue in support of the msm and its polls-when they favor Obama, or, sometimes just post the bad news and never return to their thread?

[syriacus]

Palin did it!!!!

[republicangel]

Sometimes, sure. But she hung around to argue her case. I’m just getting tired of people treating it like some kind of game. The only advice I would give newbies, is maybe they ought to lurk a good deal before posting the first time.

[pgkdan]

Maybe you didn’t notice the footnote that there was a very small sample size for this demo?

[elc]

You’re a fool if you’re counting on the youth vote. Look at Gallup’s poll from yesterday regarding first time voters. Proportionally, there are no more first time voters (many of which will be youth) this year than there were in 2004.

It’s because of a small sample size. Nothing more.

[pgkdan]

The sample size being small is a problem in itself, considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt.

Yeah right. Just like they werre the force that guaranteed a win for McGovern. Remember how fired up they were for Gore? What about Kerry? Anyone counting on a larger than usual 18-24 turnout is going to be surprised.

[NKStarr]

Might just be a misprint. That happens. See if its corrected in a later poll.

[Mac from Cleveland]

I posted this on a thread yesterday, and it bears repeating.

Despite all the revisionist history hoo-ha about McGovern’s “Young People’s Campaign” and the hatred for “Tricky Dick”, Nixon actually beat McGovern among voters 30 and under in 1972.

[Mad Dawg]

considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt.

The phrase "without a doubt" always makes me suspicious. In this case especially suspicious because I heard an article yesterday saying that the younger demographic was seemingly not so interested in voting. Further, in the minute demographic of active youth at my Parish the vast majority are conservative.

So I have plenty of doubt about the degree of participation by younger voters and the "vector" of that participation.

However I agree that the sample for the IBD poll is too small to be meaningful.

[elc]

Take these for what they are worth. 2 Gallup polls - 1 shows the proportion of new voters this year won’t be any higher than in 2004.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

The 2nd shows that early voters are about evenly split so far among party lines (so far):
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Early-Voting-Now-11-Could-Reach-30.aspx

[mad_as_he$$]

Excellent point. I think “pandering” to younger voters erodes other demos and maybe a mistake for some candidates.

[McGavin999]

The sample size being small is a problem in itself, considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt. The whole metric of the poll is off when it assumes young voters will vote for McCain by a 3-1 margin.

That's what they say every year. Remember how the youth vote were out for "President" Dean?

[nina0113]

Why do you guys give newbies such a hard time? Cut them slack.

I was cutting her slack, until this particular newbie admitted that she HAD seen the pollsters' own disclaimer of one number in their poll, and that she had posted this stupid vanity anyway, trying to discredit the entire poll based on that number. That's textbook troll.

[CommerceComet]

Remember how the youth vote were out for "President" Dean?

Remember how the anti-war youth vote put Eugene McCarthy in the White House in 1968?

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

What I mean is that for the entire election cycle we have heard about the huge amount of new, young voters (like we do every election). Has this shown up at all yet in the early voting?

Link: new voter registration claims way off

[avacado]

Dude! Read the asterisk next to the 18-24 year old age group before posting! Sheeze...

*

[diamond6]

“Either polls are crap, or polls are to be believed—pick one.”

The polls are crap, especially for this election. I don’t think you can prove anything by what you see - not the good ones and not the bad ones. The oversampling issue appears to be grossly overestimating this in Messiah’s favor.

I don’t believe this is over, but the MSM and pollsters sure want us to think that. I admit I’m concerned, but I still think there are so many underlynig factors that could change the dynamics of the actual voting (like no other election), and there is such a wide variance in the polls, that I don’t think we can get an accurate reading from any poll.

I think a lot of pollsters are going to be very surprised, but I’m not sure how it’s going to go at this point.

[VOR78]

According to CNN’s 2004 exit polling, John Kerry won the 18-29 Demographic by only 9 points, 54-45. I suspect that it will not be significantly worse than that this time around. Probably 40-60 in favor of Obama, despite the fact that the media would have you believe it’ll be 3-1.

Also note that this particular poll has McCain losing badly in the 45-64 demo. I do not believe that will happen, either.

[mad_as_he$$]

I have been puzzled over McCain's poor showing in the 45+. One of the things is that that demo may be a false bracket. If you get 54+ you get the last VN generation. Below that VN was most likely not a big influence in their lives except may an older brother or their father served.