Posted on 10/24/2008 2:14:34 AM PDT by nobamanada
Take a look at this poll's internals showing McCain leading among the 18-24 demographic by 74%-22%. Are you joking? It's likely the opposite of this in favor of Obama. I'm all for being an optimist, but does anyone seriously believe this nonsense?
Well, if I were a conservative, posting this on FR, a conservative web site, I might be more inclined to note the 21% conservatives for Obama. But, that just me. A conservative. For McCain-Palin.
Yeah, okay. Not a single, solitary soul noted either of these things today in their jubilation. I am just trying to objectively point something out. No use getting excited about a poll that is a piece of trash.
It’s been noted. Also, last time I saw it, Jewish sampling was maybe 27%. Just sayin’....
I didn’t see your source url for the poll, so I have no comment.
However, I see on your graphic “IBD” and if that refers to Investors Business Daily, here are the contact information links in case you want to send them a comment:
http://www.investors.com/contact/
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/AboutUs.aspx
Bottom right, fine print:
“*Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size.”
“* Age 12-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size”
They polled 1000 likely voters, which well could’ve meant only 50 18-24-year-olds who were registered and likely to vote.
The sample size being small is a problem in itself, considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt. The whole metric of the poll is off when it assumes young voters will vote for McCain by a 3-1 margin.
There is an asterick next to the subgroup 18-24 but I can’t read it.
What does it say?
Anyways, the number of respondents are probably very low.
And it will be a small percentage of the overall electorate, the 18-24 year old voter.
“....considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt.”
Well, thats some of that Obamaphile conventional wisdom that we’ll just have to see the reality of on election day.
A bunch of things don’t look quite right.
Parental status - parents/nonparents about the same?
Typically Republicans do better with parents.
Did they make about half their calls in the south?
McCain is doing 7% better in the south than his average,
the same as his average in the west, -3 in midwest, -10 in northeast.
But I like the primary number.
Either polls are crap, or polls are to be believed--pick one. Of course this all depends on the sampling, but what exactly IS the "right" sample--50-50 dems and reps? Where is the evidence that this country is 50-50, or 55-45, or whatever? A "bad" sample to some is one that shows more dems than reps, but isn't that accurate, especially in certain states/counties?
What I'd like to know is which are the most accurate polls in terms of prediction, and what would be considered "proper" samples for a national poll?
Because most polls do not predict anything--they're how things are NOW--but we treat them as predictors of what will occur on election day, when the only valid predictor is actual voting. And in the early voting, McCain is getting slaughtered.
But to say these things means one is a DUmmie, I guess. I long for the "party of adults" that can discuss reality--bad AND good news--and I hoped we were in that party.
Good Catch.
The pollster was unable to fill the quota cell for People 18-24 years old thus under representing that Demographic. And while they under represented the 18-24 cell they Over Represented some other age groups.
Bad Sampling, Bad Quota Management, Bad Data and Bad Results.
I’m sure someone just switched the numbers when preparing that spreadsheet. A mistake in preparing the “pretty” report.
“considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt”
That is what President Kerry said when 100K young people turned out to hear him speak in Madison Wisconsin.And to hear Bruce Springsting’s free concert.
You know what they call politicians that depend on the youth vote?
LOSERS.
This poll is no more whacked than Gallup or Zogby, probably less so.
OK Troll, sounds great, but the history of this poll is indisputably the most accurate poll in polling history.
But your short stay here at FR hinges on your starting date as well as what you reveal about yourself. Don’t make other long time troll sniffing Freepers get on to your case.
WE weed out moles here every day and it seems you may have brought on some unwanted attention.
I’m a troll for pointing out a serious error by any objective observer? Look at my posts for crying at loud. Tell me you believe voters age 18-29 will go for McCain 74-22 and then call me a troll.
How does the “early voting” compare as a percentage of what the final full vote will be?
I don’t think, at this point, it is any more significant than a poll.
And, while its great to be “adults” when discussing all this, some I think want to avoid the psychological effect of all this negative news. We don’t want anyone staying home November 4th because “its over”. There are those who want that to happen.
You are an awesome FReeper.
And they admit they got a low percentage of respondents.Which tends to make it highly volatile and inaccurate.
But that is a relatively small error.
Not in league of BS coming from Gallup,CBS,Zogby and such.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.