The sample size being small is a problem in itself, considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt. The whole metric of the poll is off when it assumes young voters will vote for McCain by a 3-1 margin.
“....considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt.”
Well, thats some of that Obamaphile conventional wisdom that we’ll just have to see the reality of on election day.
“considering young voters will vote in a higher number in this election without a doubt”
That is what President Kerry said when 100K young people turned out to hear him speak in Madison Wisconsin.And to hear Bruce Springsting’s free concert.
You know what they call politicians that depend on the youth vote?
LOSERS.
This poll is no more whacked than Gallup or Zogby, probably less so.
You’re a fool if you’re counting on the youth vote. Look at Gallup’s poll from yesterday regarding first time voters. Proportionally, there are no more first time voters (many of which will be youth) this year than there were in 2004.
It’s because of a small sample size. Nothing more.
Yeah right. Just like they werre the force that guaranteed a win for McGovern. Remember how fired up they were for Gore? What about Kerry? Anyone counting on a larger than usual 18-24 turnout is going to be surprised.
The phrase "without a doubt" always makes me suspicious. In this case especially suspicious because I heard an article yesterday saying that the younger demographic was seemingly not so interested in voting. Further, in the minute demographic of active youth at my Parish the vast majority are conservative.
So I have plenty of doubt about the degree of participation by younger voters and the "vector" of that participation.
However I agree that the sample for the IBD poll is too small to be meaningful.
That's what they say every year. Remember how the youth vote were out for "President" Dean?