TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[abb]

CNN just said that was from an earlier presser. But they had the “LIVE” tag on it.

[rodguy911]

It’s a tough call and he won’t please everyone.

[rodguy911]

(its above my pay grade)

[Sunnyflorida]

“I gotcha, how risky a trade is that?”

Not too. It is a hedge and should work. The only way to loose is if Oil goes up and gas goes down. I do these kinds of trades all the time.

[Sally'sConcerns]

My sister just called from a place called Village Creek which is near Beaumont, Texas. Village Creek is where they often go camping in their RV. Village Creek has issued mandatory evacuation orders effective tomorrow morning. My sister said they already had the place boarded up and the locals were filling everything they could up with gasoline.

They aren’t going home yet even though they’ve already left the campground. They’re headed towards her husbands grandmothers house which isn’t all that far off the coast near the Beaumont area.

I’ve called my son and reminded him to go ahead and fill up his car with gas. If I remember correctly, he’s up near Lake Livingston visiting his Dad. I told him even if that’s where he was, he still needed to fill up since if it gets bad, the trucks won’t be able to make it to any of the service stations.

I had one of two choices back when Wilma was out in the Gulf. I could have him go to his Dad’s house on Livingstone or I could have him go to my sister’s house on the SW side of Houston. Thankfully we decided it would be best if he went to my sister’s house.

It was a little bit crowded at her house during that time since some of my b-i-l’s co-workers weren’t really sure their 2nd floor apartment could handle Wilma if she hit Houston head on. They brought their 2 (I think there were 2, might have been 3) kids along with a couple of other adults. Lots of spaghetti was consumed and my son hid out in the computer room playing games and visiting with people online.

My sister has lived in her house for close to 25 years and has never been flooded. I hope she never does flood but if she does, she’s as prepared as one can be. Even though the flood maps don’t place her in a flood zone she still carries flood insurance. It’s really the prudent thing to do because ya just never know!

Just as soon as Gustav is officially in the Gulf of Mexico there won’t be any more houses closing until after the storm finally hits somewhere. Insurance agents won’t write any type of policy when there’s a hurricane in the gulf.Mortgage companies won’t close on a house without an insurance policy being in effect.

I sure hope people remember the hell that was Wilma and will at least fill up their cars. It took 2 days after Wilma hit before there was any gasoline available in the area of Houston where my sister lives.

While hurricanes are never actually funny, my sister and I did have a little fun during Wilma. She’d call me periodically with “storm damage” reports. She’d call me and report a rain drop had fallen on the deck and another time she called to report some damage to one of her trees as a leaf had blown off. Silly I know but when you aren’t sure yet whether you’re going to get hit, a little humor helps ease the tension.

[Aquamarine]

Well done. Reduced and in unison.

[janetjanet998]

The storm is picking up speed...looks like landfall monday afternoon now..

Nagin said he wont order the Evac until tomorrow morning that will be too late becuase it only give them 30 hours..plus tropical storm winds will get there before then.

NOLA will be on the stronger side of the storm this time and the surge against the levees could be even higher then Katrina..

and each north or right jog puts the center a little closer to the city too

[SAJ]

The two major economic problems with a huge GOM 'cane are 1) refining losses, and 2) NG production losses. Crude production losses can be (and will be, to some extent) ameliorated by drawing from SPR and increasing imports over the short term.

Refining losses due to shutdowns are inconvenient, but not a problem in any but the short term. Europe (even China, too) have excess motor gasoline available for export because of the changes in their laws over the past 3 years.

Refinery losses due to physical damage will hurt distillate prices (#2 oil, aka diesel, aka heating oil, and #1 oil, aka jet, aka kerosene) far more than motor gasoline prices because of the worldwide demand shift TO diesel for the past 2 years or so, and the future continuing shift toward it. With a lot of storm damage, motor gasoline rises perhaps $2.00/gal, but diesel might rise $5.00, with huge consequences for the economy.

Now, all of the above has to do with incurring serious production in combination with refining losses. If the refineries are (mostly) intact and down for only a short time, sure, we'll see a spike in product pricing, but it will be short-lived.

If refinery damage is minimal, NG production losses -- especially if they become severe, as in 2005 -- are more important to the economy in the medium- and long-term.

[Aquamarine]

I don’t know that much about it either, just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express one time. :)

[Sunnyflorida]

“It still did massive damage, however.”

It whoa-ed up. Flood damage. Mobile homes and poorly constructed homes get wind damage but the slow winds built up the surge - but not in NO. That was a pure engineering failure. The water never topped the dykes. The dykes failed.

[DrewsMum]

“Am I the only one here who suspects that New Orleans Urban population—criminals, welfare cheats, prostitutes, drug users—will behave the same way again?”

Well, Bobby Jindal said earlier on Fox News (and I don’t have the direct quote) but he basically said don’t worry about staying in NO to protect your stuff, GET OUT, we have 700 or so (i don’t remember) National Guard troops protecting NO...

I am sure he has given them instructions to um...not “put up” with any looting if ya know what I mean...wouldn’t surprise me if he said “take no prisoners” hahahahha

[lainie]

This was the Andrew track, August 1992 (the lowest track):

This was Katrina, August, 2005:

This was Rita, September 2005:

And this is Gustav, subject to change of course.

[Petronski]

The NOAA map is nice, but I think the WeatherUnderground maps are much prettier.

[Sunnyflorida]

nIce loops, you can see the land friction steering. The tracking chart of Charley was amazing. Land steering all the way up the harbor to hit us square.

[Candor7]

thump-Thump.

Was that a speed bump?

OOps! No!

Just Nagin.

[ARCADIA]

Yes, it is.

It looks beautiful in those sat photos - beautiful and terrible ... inspiring both fear and awe ... of creation and of nature’s power and fury.

[tiredoflaundry]

You are amazing Nauti! You certainly have your hands full once again. Thanks for all this hard work!

[Sunnyflorida]

Between Cape Sabel and the Barron River there is this “white spot” clearly visible from off shore as you cruise north or south off shore a few miles. It looks like sand dunes from a distance which would be very odd for florida. But it is indeed the place were Andrew came out. The white spot is actually dead mangroves bleaching in the sun. We now have the same thing here on the West Wall of Charlotte Harbor. Charley stripped the mangroves. They are dead and turning from grey to bone white.

[janetjanet998]

updated models just coming in are shifting the path slightly east closer to NOLA

not good

current movement looks a little to the right too

[TornadoAlley3]

Obama and Biden will show up in NO while Mac is at the convention.