TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[rodguy911]

Looks like it is 7 mph short of cat 5 to me.

[Admin Moderator]

Thread promoted to Breaking News as well as Front Page News. Forecast map now shows a Cat 5 in the Gulf. If you want anything added to the headline to reflect that, please request what you want.

[profgoose]

If you are interested in oil and infrastructure damage models from Gustav, as well as a whole bunch of rig/pipeline maps, etc., etc., here's a link to The Oil Drum. WARNING: Not for the faint of heart: the models look pretty bad at this point but that can change of course.

[Sunnyflorida]

“This has the potential of unspeakable hardships.”

The key is to be prepared.

[nwctwx]

125 kt at landfall... 144mph sustained winds.

[rodguy911]

That would be devastating, my guess was always a strong three,but this storm has defied all.

[greyfoxx39]

It’s tough losing it all and starting over, we did all that about 9 years ago when the house burned down.

We were evacuated from the Rodeo-Chediski Arizona Fire and didn't know for ten days whether the house was standing or not. Left that area within months.

Living in the high desert now, no floods or fires, God willing.

Click on the youtube link in my tagline to hear DNC chairman Don Fowler laugh at the thought of a hurricane hitting New Orleans.

[rodguy911]

WHat is it like there Elle, any waterspouts?how strong are the winds, driving rain?

[TornadoAlley3]

That image looks similar to where Andrew made landfall in LA...but I am not sure.

[TornadoAlley3]

That image looks similar to where Andrew made landfall in LA...but I am not sure.

[abb]

IIRC, Andrew came in around Atchafalaya Bay, but hit more squarely.

[rodguy911]

Problem is intensity and direction are near impossible to judge for Hannah,although I did see one scenario for just what you said.

[TornadoAlley3]

just like Katrina/Rita

[Amelia]

Last night there was no wind at all, but a big limb fell down - don’t know why, since it survived the hefty gusts we had for Fay.

[nwctwx]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2008

the center of the eye of Gustav had been hugging the eastern coast
of the Isle of Youth earlier this afternoon...but is now over water
in between that island and Mainland western Cuba. Aircraft fixes
continue to come in just about right along the previous forecast
track. Visible satellite imagery suggests Gustav has been wobbling
slightly...but the initial motion appears relatively
well-established at 315/13...with steering provided by a mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. The various models have come into
better agreement on a track into the north-central Gulf Coast
within the next couple of days. The HWRF...UKMET...and
NOGAPS...which had previously forecast a stall just offshore...have
come into the fold with the GFS...GFDL...and ECMWF...resulting in a
consensus track that falls very close to the path of the previous
advisory. This agreement has also resulted...however...in a
consensus track that reaches the coast a little faster. The new
official track is almost exactly along the path of the previous
advisory...but maintains the current heading and speed all the way
to the coast...arriving there a little sooner than before. While
there is increased confidence in both the path and speed of the
track through about 48 hours...the model spread is still
sufficiently large to serve as a reminder that we cannot specify
exactly where or when the center of Gustav will make final
landfall. After landfall...all of the models respond to weakening
steering currents...well to the southwest of the high over the
northeastern United States...by forecasting a dramatic slowing of
the forward speed over Louisiana and eastern Texas...and the
official forecast again follows suit.

The recon central pressures have continued to steadily fall...with
the most recent value being 942 mb. A flight-level wind of 143 kt
at 700 mb was just reported in the northeastern eyewall...which
supports increasing the advisory intensity to 130 kt. Modest
additional strengthening during the next few hours could lead to
category five intensity as Gustav crosses western Cuba...but the
official forecast does not explicitly call for category five status
until 24 hours. After departing Cuba...the hurricane will pass
over the warm loop current in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...and
vertical wind shear is not forecast by the models to become
prohibitively strong during the next couple of days...so the
official forecast maintains a major hurricane all the way to final
landfall. This forecast is very close to the SHIPS model and also
not too different from the GFDL and HWRF.

The NHC wind speed probabilities...included in this advisory package
in both text and graphical formats...depict a relatively similar
risk of hurricane-force winds at individual locations along a wide
stretch of the northern Gulf Coast. Given that these values are
sufficiently high...and considering the slightly faster track
toward the coast...it is time to issue hurricane and tropical storm
watches along the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/2100z 22.1n 82.9w 130 kt
12hr VT 31/0600z 23.4n 84.4w 135 kt
24hr VT 31/1800z 25.3n 86.5w 140 kt
36hr VT 01/0600z 27.2n 88.6w 135 kt
48hr VT 01/1800z 29.0n 90.7w 125 kt
72hr VT 02/1800z 31.0n 93.0w 70 kt...inland
96hr VT 03/1800z 32.0n 94.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 04/1800z 32.0n 96.0w 30 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Knabb

[abb]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricaneandrewlouisiana.JPG

[Sunnyflorida]

“Looks like it is 7 mph short of cat 5 to me.”

Yeah but the winds are not uniform across the whole mass. My neighbor lost his weather station at 192 MPH during Charley but the path of destruction was only a couple of miles apart. If you were out of that narrow band there was no damage at all. And even inside the band well build homes did fine.

The most damage comes on the windward side of an even modest storm that moves slow.

[rodguy911]

I have heard the high desert is awesome you lucky duck.

[Petronski]

150mph...still a cat 4.

[Sunnyflorida]

Katrina/New Orleans was an engineering failure. The wind was modest. The surge was modest, but put a modest natural event up against terrible engineering and you get failure.

Maybe if these people evacuate enough they will give it up. If this storm does not flood NO and they do evacuate I bet next time the people will just sit it out.