Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
That’s cold....
but funny
Oh boy, here comes Manny Corpas, the closer. He can be very good...
Somehow in this case I don’t feel bad.
He had a foot in but it hit him outside the box. Guess that’s the rule.
Ellsbury flies out on a pitch outside the zone and then Lugo screws the pooch. That’s not how you get the job done boys.
Yuke was awesome - caught him with the arm and held it back so there could be NO question on the call. Awesome pick off, nice moce by Pap.
Pedroia Insurance Co., in business...
Youk?
Holliday is the one guy who showed up tonight too...
4 for 4,rest of the team,1 hit
will likely hear about the one gaffe
Staying alive...
I guess that dance was a jig. Big mistake by Holiday. Way too big a lead to take this late in the game.
Damn, how many have the Sox left on base now? The 9th isn’t going to be easy for Papelbon...
13.
Pap gonna earn his pay.
Its all down to the top of the 9th
Lets hope so.
This game is TOO close...
Youk let that ball eat him up and he winds up beating down on the ball.
Well, Paps has to be close to perfect to close this one up. Offense has been very poor in the clutch. You can say that it is due to pitchers making their pitches but these guys can look at the tape and see how they approached the ABs and will likely by pissed.
To the 9th we go. Anyone catch the 24 preview?
4 words to fear you-”we need Mr. Bauer”!
Yeah but... for who?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.