Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Not even close!
A hugh mistake to make in a World Series game.
Great pick off. The trick is not to let him get settled.
Bad move by Holiday.
Holliday caught leaning toward 2nd. Ouch!
Lucky for us he is great. And our defense is great. And our hitters are great.
WOW... MVP Holliday, out by a mile!
On the other hand...good defense also wins games. (Note to Halliday: you snooze, you lose.)
for his dancing performance after Sox won playoff spot/
ALDS/ALCS, etc. In the first, dancing barefoot out on
the field. When I hear “Twinkletoes” I think of how
Fred Flintstone’s feet/toes were pictured when he bowled...
Ive seen a lot of folks acting cocky off the base tonight.
Not the way to play in a game of this calibre
What a horrible mistake to make with two out, and Helton at the plate. He wasn’t even very far off the bag. Rockies will regret that.
... and lucky for us he wasn't nailed by that shot from Halliday
I had thought of that.
But I will stick with the underdog
(”Sweet Caroline”)
Matt Holliday (got! picked! off!)
good times NEVER seemed so good (so good! so good! so good!)
1st big league runner Paps has picked off in his career
Julio finds new ways to suck.
Niel Diamond????
That came with Helton coming up too. Colorado fans will be very angry with Holliday for that.
Lugo, the weak link...
That was a bad call. Julio was still in the batters box.
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