Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the REAL Colorado Rockies showed up tonight. Not sure who those imposters were last night...
A formula for a Red Sox defeat.
Yeah there is about a 30 second delay. BUt hey no McCarver.
He’s the MLB version of Madden.
Yup...
Ubaldo is really amazing. I hope we don’t lose this 1-0.
I wish the Indians had the formula for a Red Sox defeat.
His stats don’t reflect it.
I think he looks very hitable. Schilling will keep it close and the Sox bats will come alive. Sox will win pulling away in the late innings.
Sox are making contact...
Curt looks good
Good game
NICE inning, Curt! Looks like Schil is indeed settling in...
They’ll still be running those promos with Dane Cook
even if this goes to a game 7—which will mean we’re
into NOVEMBER. There’s only one...October!
During one playoff round, Cook was in the broadcast
booth promoting his movie. It died quickly I think
(Good Luck Chuck)
Hopefully the Sox can get to him the 2nd or 3rd time around.
yes and if he had gotten to third in time to cover the
throw we could still be 0-0. Wake up Sox bats.
They did....three times.
Yup, most of the hits for outs have been solid off the bat against Jimenez.
The dam will burst in one of these innings for the Red Sox.
From what I've seen of him, he can be amazing... and he can be very wild. Let's hope "Wild Ubaldo" makes an appearance tonight...
Jiminez looks good so far. Schill does too. Going to be a good one!
Does anyone know the status of the HOU/SD game? It’s stunning a decision has not been made yet
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