Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Not sure if I posted it but the MLB rules say that only the
network flagship (in Boston & Denver) can have the local
broadcast in World Series (similar reg. with Super Bowl).
Everyone OUTSIDE Boston got ESPN feed instead.
I did hear Joe C. and Glenn Geffner (and O’Brien,
who does the pre-game then is off to do “ESPN
International”) via WEEI tonight at work
Games 1 and 6: WEEI 850 Boston (”Wed. Night Sox”)
Others: WRKO 680 Boston
Below is from Boston Radio Watch by Mark Schnyder:
>>
For the World Series, Red Sox Radio Network broadcasts can only go out on WRKO AM 680 or WEEI 850 AM signals. Rest of the network won’t be able to carry the hometown play-by-play meaning that the fans in Metro West won’t be getting Joe Castiglione’s another World Series call on WCRN AM 830’s 50,000 watt signal but will have to rely on WRKO AM’s iffy nighttime signal which battles static and a French-speaking station from Canada after sunset. 890 ESPN will have the national ESPN Radio call of the Fall Classic with Jon Miller and Joe Morgan.
WEEI FM 103.7 and WVEI FM 105.5 had the ESPN feed for the WS. I have the MLB audio package so I can listen to the Red Sox radio feed. The MLB audio is on a 20 to 30 second delay from the realtime action.
yes—on a radio board I’m on, someone (also)confirmed that
stations like WEEI-FM (Westerly RI, 103.7), WCRN
(Worcester, 830) and WBOQ (Gloucester, 104.9) had the
ESPN coverage. As seen above, nutmeg tuned in (prob to
WTIC) and was disappointed to get ESPN instead of
Red Sox Network coverage.
It’s a rule from MLB...disappointing some listeners.
I have a feeling this series will go six or seven games.
The Red Sox are a very confident bunch with a lot of experience though.
STOP IT, I read your hilarious post this morning after the game and nearly bust a gut laughing. Had I been drinking anything you would owe me a new laptop BIG TIME because it would have ended up all over my keyboard!
Seriously though, as a Red Sox fan here in NH, last nights game was W O N D E R F U L!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sadly, the commentators on FOX did everything they could to be "fair and balanced" by dissing the Red Sox and making all kinds of excuses for the Rockies… they lost because they had too much rest… boo hoo. Simply put, they LOST because the Red Sox TOTALLY dominated Colorado and out played them in every area of the game. They lost because they played a real team that wants victory so bad they can taste it.
All I can say is if the Red Sox keep playing with this level of expertise and tenacity, it will be 2004 Cardinals/Red Sox all over again = over in 4 or 5. The Cardinals were also touted as heavy favorites to win and we all know how that turned out.
I expect that to change.
Don’t expect to see Schilling get away with his lame 88 mph heat and if Lester and Mediocre-san try to nibble their way through the line up they will get lit up. I also wouldn’t expect to see the Rockies’ pitching staff be as bad as it was last night as that was as bad a performance I have seen in a long time.
Sox fans should feel good about what we saw at the plate last night but lots of ball left to be played and our starters are not the most awe inspiring bunch out there.
Joe Morgan for as good an all around player as he was is the opposite as an analyst. He pushes conventional wisdom as facts and is fairly arrogant when challenged. He’s too far away from the players on particular teams to offer any real insight as well.
ROYCE CLAYTON: Wait, wait. You say that if somebody steals a base in the World Series...
COCO CRISP: Yeah, only one, though - the first stolen base - Taco Bell will give one taco to everybody in America.
ROYCE CLAYTON: Everybody what?
COCO CRISP: In America.
ROYCE CLAYTON: That day?
COCO CRISP: I don't know, it doesn't say.
ROYCE CLAYTON: What the hell you talking about, it's gotta be that day.
COCO CRISP: But there are only like two more hours left in the day.
ROYCE CLAYTON: So what? That's what the deal has to be. How you gonna come in and say 'I ain't got my taco'? You could go to every Taco Bell in the world and say that. 'I ain't got my taco.' How they gonna know?
I am still aghast over the Sox’s decision to take Snyder over Taverez for the series. The Sox don’t have a ground ball pitcher on the staff (unless you count Timlin which is questionable) and with the Rockies you need that.
That conversation was funny!
No one gets a taco though.
Ah, no: it comes from how you fill in your scorebook. A regular “K” is when the batter swung at strike 3, a backwards “K” is when the batter watched strike 3 without swinging.
Someone on the radio-info.com board noted that Fox didn’t
show Yaz throwing out the first pitch and naturally he
said it all had to do with the fact that they were owned
by that rabid right winger, Rupert Murdoch. Here was my
response:
We can’t forget that the fact that Rupert Murdoch owns Fox/News Corporation sends liberals into
a frenzy. Even though at least some of their shows (Simpsons and Family Guy come to mind)
make many jokes at the expense of conservatives, etc. * and they employ
some people like Geraldo, etc. (Remember his on-air fight with BOR over immigration?) No, no matter how many great entertainment and news shows have run on Fox over the years,
they’re owned by Rupert so they must be eeeeeeevil. :)
But yeah, they should have shown (ceremonial) first pitch. I’m amazed they showed John Williams and the
Boston Pops’ doing national anthem. Didn’t pre-empt that for ads. By the way, nobody did steal
a base, right, so I guess we aren’t getting our free tacos from Taco Bell.
*—for example, one Family Guy episode had Lois having a nightmare that she had put her
baby son Stewie into the washing machine. She wakes up all sweaty and says, “Oh my God,
I just dreamt I was going to drown my son! I’m just like that Texas woman who held her
son underwater and gave him brain damage. My God, I’m turning into Barbara Bush!”
See, that joke went out on the evil, conservative Fox network :)
That would be me, and I’m thinking an 8-run lead seems to be the standard.
I have not heard anything but I am guessing there is more to the story than we know. I know Julian is an emotional guy and it would not surprise me if he told them to stick it, that if he was not good enough for the ALDS or ALCS then scr@w you. That is the only thing that makes sense to me. Or it could be that he made such a scene when left off the roster for the previous two series that the Sox just don’t want him on the roster. But then again, why Snyder over Corey?
I know Tavarez has tossed the salad in recent relief appearances but when he’s on he’s good. Snyder actually had his mop-up role taken away by Gagne. No clue on Corey though. He had a great outings in most of his perfomances but maybe his stuff is average for what the Rokies can handle which makes the Taverz thing even more curious.
Gotta feel for Francis. He had that "deer in the headlights" look most of the night. Of course, when one of your first few pitches gets rocketed into the Monstah seats, you can guess it JUST might not be your night.
Last 6 regular season appearances, Julian Tavarez:
12 IP
17 H
4 BB
2 HR
2 K
9.00 ERA
I think that’s plenty of reason to keep him off the roster.
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