Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
We’ve got a long way to go...my concern is that we lose Beckett after a rain delay.
BTW Boston fans....if by any chance you have NBATV on your cable tomorrow at 1pm NBATV will show game 6 of the sixers-celtics 1981 eastern conference finals.
lol!
Go Nancy!
I saw on whether.com that there was a 50% chance of rain.
Besides God's team is losing 2-0. LOL!
I just went outside and its only light sprinkles. I sure hope it does not pick up.
The Sox come out slugging.
We had minor drizzle today,i am wet of them,southern VT.
Should be no issue.
3-0...
first thing this AM on EEI in Boston,one fellow,true Boston fan I guess,oh no what if Brady gets hurt?
What if Josh stinks?
Heh..I can relate.
“God’s team”?
LOL...Bostonians can’t handle success.
Thanks for that report! We had some fairly heavy rain here in the Hartford, CT area a couple of hours ago. Hope that’s not the same storm cloud over Fenway.
Not a problem, this game will get in regardless of the conditions.
It's our time Nutmeg, go Sox!
Drew,JD.
That fellow stuck it through one of the toughest times a professionally and personally,fellow can have,never complained,never spoke out,never made aexcuse.
Solid character really,holds it in,really a pro about it.
He has quietly dealt with horrible issues with his young child,a son I think.
So the fellow has seriously carried it this year,and borne
it all really.
That grand slam made my ,more than my day,been pulling for him for a while.
Hasn’t rained all day around here, just overcast and light sprinkles late ( now ). My fingers are crossed!
LOVE them K’s !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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