Posted on 02/03/2007 6:52:37 PM PST by ShorelineMike
A big week for Microsoft is winding down - the company's first new operating system in five years has made its debut without major hiccups. It was a launch as typical as it can get for Microsoft and very different than one of those Apple product announcements. Get the background launch story and how Apple's Vista reaction could look like.
You have to admit the PC guy probably does more positive for Microsoft's image than anything Microsoft has done for the PC in a long time. But Microsoft has brought out Vista, the first really new operating system since Apple launched OS X and that means things should get rather heated going forward.
As promised we'll take a look at the Vista launch and compare it to an Apple event and then we'll chat about the rumored response Apple is supposedly cooking up to spoil Microsoft's party. Oh, and yes, we'll chat a bit about Vista someplace in the middle.
Vista launch: It sure wasn't an Apple event
I was talking to another analyst about this and he probably said it correctly. When Apple does a launch event Steve Jobs takes special interest and personally has a great deal to do with the staging, something he is incredibly good at. For Microsoft, they contract it out and you often wonder if the folks that designed the event either understood or cared about what it was they were launching. Microsoft's events tend to be parties bracketed by stunts designed to make people remember the name so surveys testing name recognition show improvement.
Apple, on the other hand, does events designed to sell products and the most recent example was their launch of the iPhone which virtually overwhelmed everything at CES and caused Apple's stock price to spike. This is a good example of doing an event that has a clear purpose and goal to sell product vs. doing one where the goal is visibility.
Now it may actually be kind of smart to do this with a Microsoft OS launch. The biggest problems with upgrades and migrations to a new OS occur in the first three months and things get vastly better after that as fixes are created for OS and application migration issues and more and more people are embraced by these fixes. If you realize that something like a billion PCs run some version of Windows, then, say even a 10% initial migration would be 100 million folks or 2.5 times Apple's estimated entire installed base of Macs. If only 1% of those folks had problems, and typically it will be much more than this, you would have 1 million people in dire need of help and there is no support organization or combination on the planet that could handle that kind of load over a short period of time.
This initial sales spike for Windows 95 nearly shut down Microsoft support and partially resulted in sales that were estimated to be only 50% of potential over the first year. This would suggest a softer launch would be better for a stronger first year sales ramp.
If Vista eases into the market, then the techies get it first and they, by nature, become part of the virtual support organization that updates to both Vista and the applications that run on it. In effect, the percentage of problems drops and the support capability of the market improves resulting in a sharp decrease of really upset people who can't get this product to work.
This could, and to be honest should, result in a more linear ramp for the product and a better overall experience for everyone involved. We'll try to revisit this at year end and discuss how it went.
Vista: When do you move?
Typically there are a couple of rules to moving to a new major OS release. The first is the migration gets much better, as I've noted, after the first three months because more of the third party applications have both migrated and been patched and because the drivers are more mature (both more reliable and better tuned).
The best experience will always be on new hardware and, if you bought a new PC last quarter, you probably already paid for a copy of Vista. This copy should come from the OEM designed specifically for the machine you purchased. Some will have them right away while others may take a few weeks to get it right. Trust me when I say it is better you get this right than get it early.
When you migrate, try the built-in Vista migration tool coupled with a migration cable. The Belkin Data Migration Cable for Windows Vista which costs under $50 seems to work fastest but you can also do the migration over your home network.
If you want to see just how much can be done automatically, the PCMover Application from Laplink actually moves many of the applications, you can get the download version for $50 and it should save you a lot of time. You will probably still need to upgrade these applications to their newest versions but this is arguably the simplest way to move to a new PC running Vista.
Is it worth it? That depends on you, I do identify with the PC guy in Apple's ads and it sure was worth it for me. But there is no need to rush, it isn't going anyplace. Some of us just like to get places first.
Apple's rumored response
With every major upgrade, there is a significant opportunity for a competitor to come in and steal market share and this one is no exception. At the Vista launch, there were folks chatting about Apple's supposed planned response to Vista and it could actually work.
If what they said is to be believed, Apple will come out in force when the most breakage is likely to occur and will roll against Vista with a campaign that targets this breakage and promises to give more benefit than Vista does without all of the pain.
Based on some informal sampling, if Apple was able to execute on such a campaign it could increase their market share by two points this year taking them to 6% of the market or nearly half again what they currently have.
Now because this is the slowest time of year for PC purchases in general that 2% may be conservative but the overall numbers sold won't be as impressive because they will be a fraction of what could have been sold had this occurred in the fourth quarter. Still, you play the cards you are dealt.
While I was thinking that the Super Bowl ad Apple is funding might kick this off, other industry observers who are likely better connected to Apple indicate that this will be a launch of the iPod based on the iPhone design instead. While I don't like the iPhone for a lot of reasons, an iPod based on that design could, if done correctly, get even me into the store wanting one. This is because most of the things that make the iPhone a bad phone simply don't apply to a device that doesn't need to be a phone in the first place.
Of course, if Apple does this after saying nothing about PCs during Steve's MacWorld address its going to cause folks to once again wonder if Apple is exiting the PC business. The other rumor was that Apple was going to license out their OS, that's been around for awhile and I still doubt that Steve would do that, but given the iPhone is actually a kind of a newer version of the Newton and we know Steve would never do that, maybe someone has upgraded his brain while he wasn't watching.
We'll see, regardless it may make the Super Bowl required watching for those of us that are more into tech than sports. I'm guessing even the PC guy from Apple's ads will be watching this game for that very reason.
"The commercials' characters are personifications of the computers... not owners."
Oh bull! Who on earth is going to believe that interpretation? You surprise me at times with your partisanship.
The Mac mini and Apple TV would be good products for Wal-Mart and Target, along with the iPods they're already selling.
Excellent point!
Even better, by switching to Macs, they can quit worrying about viruses and spyware.
And once they learn the basics, they're more willing to try things like digital photography and music than they were on Windows.
Now all you need is a defense against the next audio CD installed rootkit. Its a shame the DMCA (voted for by my Rep, Dave Camp) makes it illegal for you to remove it from your system once installed.
Of course, the question in the article about what kind of party Apple will throw when it comes out with yet another OS that everyone but a superior Mac type will ignore is kind of funny - since it will be kind of difficult for Steve Jobs, the guy who is busy hiring criminal defense lawyers, to attend a launch party from prison.
They paid Xerox. "Stole" would not seem to be accurate.
Then neither would saying the same thing about Microsoft vis a vis Apple.
Bill Gates just did an interview for Newsweek. I found this quote to be interesting...
"Nowadays, security guys break the Mac every single day. Every single day, they come out with a total exploit, your machine can be taken over totally. I dare anybody to do that once a month on the Windows machine."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16934083/site/newsweek/
they'll claim their software is better (BUT NO ONE IS BUYING IT), they'll claim their hardware is superior (BUT NO ONE IS BUYING IT)and they'll continue to run those asinine commercials with that little bitch being a smug apple owner...
and Microsoft will reply with continued WORLDWIDE LEADING SALES in software and pc's etc, etc...
i have had pc's and windows all my life and wouldnt use a mac if ya paid me.....
So if all that's true then, why are you so insecure that you had to show up on this Mac thread to debate it?
You bubble poppers kill me. You're so happy with Microsoft, but you're absolutely threatened by Apple, who you have declared to be irrelevant and insignificant.
Fact is, if it weren't for Apple's innovation and creativity there would not be any relevant or significant changes in the Windows OS. Is that what's bothering you…being on the trailing, imitating edge?
The reason that there isn't more press about Mac vulnerabilities is that the virus writers don't bother with hacking Macs - there isn't enough of an installed base for it to be worth their while. But since virtually everyone uses some flavor of Windows, that's the prime target. So Microsoft products get hit again and again, and their OS's get the reputation of being insecure, while Mac OS's fly serenely under the radar and are treated like the prize pig at the State Fair. Gates' point, I think, is that Microsoft is getting tough and tested from all these attacks, while Apple isn't. Gates' problem is that he is unfortunately inarticulate for a Harvard man.
Yeah, Bill's a real kidder.
I hope I can follow you. It's tough scraping a couple of thousand dollars together while I'm still in college.
Who on earth? How about any body with a clue?
Notice the captions.
According to your interpretation, Avenir, in the commercial called "Surgery," the OWNER of the PC is having surgery to install a new processor, new graphics card, and more memory??? Or in the one called "Tech Support" it is the PC user that is having a WebCam taped to his head??? In "Accident" it was the USER that was pulled off the table by someone tripping over his power cable. RIGHT. Sure.
Where you've missed the point is that Apple's drop is not in the bucket. It's in the crystal stemware on the fancy eatin' table.
OS-X is better?...Maybe, But the day you see me buy a mac is the day I buy a Volkswagen and eat with Chopsticks...which is never.
"IBET ping ..."
I was trying to figure out this post then i finally got it...Pretty funny. :)
Costco occasionally does buy Macs. A friend of mine missed my daughter's wedding last April because he was trying to find a Costco in Sacramento that still had a 20" iMac G5 in stock. The 50 that had been offered for sale at the Stockton Costco had been sold in under six hours. He found similar stories when he called around to other Costcos within a 75 mile radius.
He bought iMac at the South Sacramento Costco store and missed the wedding because the manager would only hold it for two hours. He did get to the reception... and brought the boxed iMac in because he didn't want to leave it in plain sight in his truck in the parking lot. ;^)>
By the way, he was switching from a PC. He now has two Macs... he bought a Mac Mini as well.
I have seen a stack of Mac Minis at the Stockton Costco.
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