Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Invest Like You'll Live to 116
Motley Fool ^ | Tuesday August 29, 12:52 pm ET | Jack Uldrich

Posted on 08/29/2006 11:58:25 AM PDT by BenLurkin

Maria Esther de Capovilla, the world's oldest person, died in her native Ecuador yesterday. She was 116 years old. By all accounts, she had a good life and was in such good shape at the time of her unexpected death that her family was actively planning on celebrating her 117th birthday.

The news of de Capovilla's death wouldn't typically have me waxing philosophic about the possibility of my living to such a ripe old age. But in combination with two other recent news articles, it did.

The first story I came across was an Associated Press report revealing that the Cray XT3 supercomputer at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee had been upgraded from 25 teraflops to 54 teraflops -- or 54 trillion calculations per second. The other was a story in today's New York Times discussing the nascent field of pharmacogenetics -- a clinical discipline in which genetic testing is used to manufacture custom-made drugs to meet patients' individual needs.

On the face of it, the three stories might not appear at all related, but I believe they are. Let me explain.

The article about the supercomputer suggested that Boeing (NYSE: BA - News) might want to use it for designing new airplanes, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA - News) for computer animation, and privately held General Atomics for futuristic research on fusion technology. The one industry it failed to mention, however, was the pharmaceutical industry.

It doesn't take much of a leap for me to understand how companies such as Merck (NYSE: MRK - News), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE - News), and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK - News) can apply the incredible raw power of these supercomputers toward enhancing their understanding of disease and developing potent new drugs. This is especially true if the supercomputers will increase their power 20-fold by 2009, as is expected.

One direct outcome could very well be not only the development of powerful new blockbuster treatments for heart disease and various types of cancer, but also the continued improvement in our understanding of the human genome. This, in turn, could lead to the rapid growth of personalized drug treatments and the overall field of pharmacogenetics.

In de Capovilla's case, her family attributed her longevity to something unique -- her consumption of donkey milk. In the future, I suspect that many of us will be living to 116 thanks, in part, to personalized (and more sophisticated) drugs that supercomputers and a better understanding of the human genome will have enabled.

And this takes me to my main point. It might sound laughable now, but I think people need to begin extending their investing horizons to include scenarios that seriously contemplate living well past 100.

The effect of even modest increases in life expectancy will hit most investors with the force of a Category 5 hurricane. For starters, Social Security and Medicare will experience even more extraordinary financial pressure as people live longer. As a result, I think that not only will taxes have to increase, but also benefits will also have to be slashed and the retirement age increased. In fact, the problem will likely become so acute that our elected officials in Washington will be forced to do all three much sooner than any of them are willing to admit.

Fool contributor Jack Uldrich will be 116 in the year 2081. He is the author of two books on nanotechnology and is currently working on his next book -- this one about how exponential advances in eight separate fields will radically alter the future business landscape. DreamWorks is a Stock Advisor recommendation. Pfizer is an Inside Value recommendation. Glaxo is a current pick and Merck a former pick of Income Investor. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Computers/Internet; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: longevity

1 posted on 08/29/2006 11:58:26 AM PDT by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin


2 posted on 08/29/2006 11:59:35 AM PDT by BenLurkin ("The entire remedy is with the people." - W. H. Harrison)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

"Pfizer is an Inside Value recommendation."

Buy it every month.


3 posted on 08/29/2006 12:07:16 PM PDT by gate2wire
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Like I say about long term investing. When looking at a long term stock remember that:

A. People will always need to eat.
B. People will always need shelter.
C. People will always need medical attention.

No matter what the economy is doing these are true.


4 posted on 08/29/2006 12:10:32 PM PDT by CougarGA7 (Why isn't anyone talking about the kidnapped soldiers anymore?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CougarGA7
You forgot two, without which the other three are irrelevant:

People will continue to be born.
People will continue to die.

5 posted on 08/29/2006 12:55:00 PM PDT by Publius6961 (MSM: Israelis are killed by rockets; Lebanese are killed by Israelis.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Publius6961

I lump that in the medical category, but when you look at the non med expense with births and deaths that's not a bad point.


6 posted on 08/29/2006 1:19:01 PM PDT by CougarGA7 (Why isn't anyone talking about the kidnapped soldiers anymore?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Was this the woman who sold her apartment but retained a life estate? One especially long-lived French woman did just that, selling her apartment in her eighties to someone who expected her to drop dead within a few years. The buyer really got skunked by her longevity and she may even have outlasted him. Does that ring a bell with any other freepers?


7 posted on 08/29/2006 4:52:19 PM PDT by caseinpoint (Don't get thickly involved in thin things.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

AFFX


8 posted on 08/31/2006 2:03:37 AM PDT by vikzilla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: vikzilla
I don't know friend. They say to never try to catch a falling knife.

P/E 55

EPS $0.39


9 posted on 08/31/2006 6:16:13 AM PDT by BenLurkin ("The entire remedy is with the people." - W. H. Harrison)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin; Coleus; Berosus; Cincinatus' Wife; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; ...

invest in McDonalds or Burger King. :')

Man lives to 112 despite junk food diet
AP | 9/1/06 | Jeff Wilson
Posted on 09/02/2006 8:22:56 PM EDT by verum ago
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1694595/posts


10 posted on 09/07/2006 12:24:57 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (updated my FR profile on Saturday, September 2, 2006. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv

"...her family attributed her longevity to something unique -- her consumption of donkey milk."

I can't see myself keeping a donkey and milking it, so I'll have to settle for the junkfood diet...poor me.


11 posted on 09/07/2006 12:48:54 AM PDT by Fred Nerks (ENEMY + MEDIA = ENEMEDIA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Fred Nerks

Maybe someone sells donkey-milk cheese... then you could use that for the cheeseburger... just an idea... it's about ass silly ass ideas get though...


12 posted on 09/07/2006 1:00:36 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (updated my FR profile on Saturday, September 2, 2006. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv

=:-)


13 posted on 09/07/2006 2:14:02 AM PDT by Seadog Bytes (OPM - The Liberal 'solution' to every societal problem. (Other People's Money))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv

Is that how long the stain maker will live?


14 posted on 09/07/2006 9:44:41 PM PDT by Coleus (RU-486 Kills babies and their mothers, Bush can stop this as Clinton allowed through executive order)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Coleus

:')


15 posted on 09/07/2006 10:31:34 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (updated my FR profile on Saturday, September 2, 2006. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson