Posted on 08/24/2005 4:29:11 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY #3
000
WTNT42 KNHC 240857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS... IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT
$$
In other news...
Nine states in the northeastern United States have decided to sip the Kyoto kool-aid. In a regional agreement, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont have decided that power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, in the aggregate, will be frozen at current levels and then reduced by 10 percent by 2020. Most interesting, the deal was done through confidential(!!) memoranda between the governors of those states. THE PEOPLE OF THESE STATES HAD NO SAY!
The mother of Michael Jackson's accuser in the recent trial has now been charged with welfare fraud.
The Secretary of Homeland Security has said that increasing border security along the United States southern border will be a priority.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Well, Ben Veniste aparently said that the reason that they didn't investigate Able Danger was that the technology no longer exists. Have you ever heard such a load of codswollop? It would make me very happy to see Ben Veniste totally discredited.
Bit must be about 965 years old by now, huh?
need to get busy.. later
'mornin Jim... and everyone... thank you, each one, for your kind wishes and prayers!
Jim, your comment about William Wallace was appropriate for me at this time. I watched Braveheart last night, again. The watching of that was brought about by my reading of "Born Fighting" by James Webb. That was brought about by Miss Marple's recommendations. I'm one of those "scot-irish" whose roots are in County Antrim, North Ireland and the Glasgow/Saltcoats area of Scotland.
In my view, a great percentage of the people of this country have forgotten, or never understood, the true meaning of "FREEDOM". I also have recently finished "John Adams" and "1776", both of which are excellent.
Being on that kick I have also re-watched "Patriot" and "Cold Mountain".
Couple of items:
Jim... I know mware got you an autographed copy of "Unfit for Command". One of the main characters is Joe Ponder. Joe goes to the church I attend and is going through a difficult time physically just now. He had a knee replaced last week and also had heart bypass surgery. He is in the Gainesville VA hospital. I wanted to get your copy of the book and have Joe autograph it for you but with my own difficulties have not been able to do that. If that interests you, please let me know.
All... update!
I go tomorrow for a "test" run of the radiation treatments. Had a "planning catscan" yesterday (had no idea the process was so complex), got my mid-section all marked up with magic marker that will be replaced with tiny tattoos tomorrow. If all goes well with tomorrow's rehearsal I'll begin eight and a half weeks of radiation starting on Monday. Not looking forward to the 100 mile round trip drive each day but am thankful for the facilities the Lord provides for these things.
Oh, no. Now FNC is onto another missing person's case. A missing model in Ohio.
They have given far more time to Natalee than to Able Danger. CNN on this one issue only is, sadly, correct.
Speaking of which, Happy Birthday Bit!
Know that our prayers go with you.
You are in our prayers. Thanks for the update.
The only thing I've noticed about the ChiSox is that the Red Sox are on pace to pass them up by next week. Come to think of it, the Indians are on pace to catch them sometime next month. Looks like the wheels are starting to fall off. ;^)
That was a great book. I've always been proud of my Scotch-Irish heritage, and reading Born Fighting was, in many ways, like reading my family history (though ours traveled from the hills of Virginia to Ohio and then Illinois). Another really good book if you want to be proud of Scot heritage is Arthur Herman's "How the Scots Invented the Modern World." It has great information about the birth of many of the ideals that led to the founding of our nation.
HUH?! Last time I checked, there was no nuclear war or worldwide epidemic that reduced us back to the Dark Ages. I would love to hear about how we've regressed technologically in the past 6 years.
I'm getting to pick the TV shows now! The youngest is upstairs on her very own computer! She bought it for herself by saving her summer salary. This will minimize the challenge to use the computer. Yea! A printer also came with it.
A wise investment.
My sister is convinced the White Sox are collapsing like they did a few years ago.
Thank you for the update. Please know that my prayers are with you, FRiend. A positive attitude will help you thru this series of treatments. Please keep us posted of each milestone.
Some really great ones today, Molly; thanks!
HA! His birthday is today!
Did I say that out loud?
I think your sister is correct. I think the AL will come down to Anaheim and Boston. All I know for sure is that whoever wins the NL pennant, they won't come from the NL West. ;^)
LOL, I have a feeling I'll be in trouble later.
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