Posted on 11/01/2004 8:34:38 PM PST by Hazzardgate
Joe Scarborough and his panel on MSNBC are all agreeing that if there is a big turnout it will spell a Kerry victory. Why is this?
Sorry for the vanity, but I don't understand this old canard!
because they think big turnout = more minorities, college students who will all vote for Kerry.
but is it breaking news?
I guess because Republican voters typically don't get to the polls via buses.
Because that's what they've been told to say.
Someone planted this seed and its become a "fact".
because it is the usual groupthink
like 'undecideds always break toward the challenger' crap that has been debunked here and by dalythoughts.
They'll parrot the same groupthink line until someone popular comes up with a new groupthink line and that will be the prevailing wisdom.
They're like sheep.
Just my take -- but I believe the general feeling is that there are more registered Dems than Republicans. Since Republicans (generally) vote more dependably, any increase means most of the people turning out are Dems.
For what it's worth.
I agree. It's like they want to create the impression that the majority of people are against GWB.
It means that the 'Rats have managed to vote at several precincts.
It is an old wife's tale. Whether or not a large turnout helps anyone still depends on who votes and where. All polls show that Bush supporters back him more strongly than Kerry supporters back him. In the NBC poll, an absolutely astounding 97 percent of Republicans are backing Bush. Reagan never did that well. But Kerry does not have all Democrats behind him--he hovers in the high 80s. It is true that low turnouts are a little better for the GOP because they have a better track record of voting in some areas. But it can be the reverse also. The last big turnout was 1992 when many new Ross Perot backers came who never voted before or only infrequently. Bush is leading in polls under the high turnout model also. It is one thing to tell a pollster you are likely to vote and another thing to actually do it.
Don't believe the conventional wisdom you may be hearing. The study below was commissioned by "Rock the Vote" and shows that new voters favor Bush 48 to 44. Bet you won't hear that on CNN or MSNBC
http://appserv.pace.edu/emplibrary/pace_poll_102604.pdf
they like to ignore the fact that sKerry's supporters don't care about him much, and Bush's supporters consider themselves 'VERY' committed...
so if the weather stinks, the dems worry that their 'not very invested' supporters won't bother going out to vote...
I've wondered that myself. Especially when a silent and conservative majority was also considered a "fact".
Because a lot of the voters will be dead, or vote several times, or punch ballots to make sure Kerry wins, destroying Bush ballots.
After 2000's results, however, Karl Rove got tired of letting the Rats beat us at turnout. The RNC instituted a massive new GOTV program. In 2002, Republican GOTV utterly crushed Democratic efforts, which is one of the reasons GOP candidates across the board handily beat their final poll numbers. Meanwhile, the unions—the traditional backbone of Dem GOTV—are decidedly less enthusiastic about supporting the Rats these days, so their efforts are somewhat diminished.
In this election, the same efforts are underway, so merely high turnout will favor the GOP. Only if the turnout utterly smashes all historical records—15% or more higher than the last election—will it mean that Democrats have caught up to GOP in GOTV. If the media talk about "high" turnout, or even "record" turnout, it means we're winning. Only pay attention if the media talk about "astonishing" or "unprecedented" turnout.
Large Turnout = Dummies, Druggies, Drunks,Hookers, and the Who Will Take More From Somebody Else and Give It to Me Bunch who all vote Democrat since the Republicans will not pay them to vote.
Thank you for that excellent explanation.
Because they're all tired old hacks grasping at the last straw of hope from stale conventional thinking.
Hi, Hazzardgate:
"Turn-out" is the only thing left in the Dems' Bag O' Tricks.
If up to thirty percent of voters have already cast their votes early. In those states that allow it. One would think that the "Turn-out" would be lower...
Wouldn't you?
The Dems and the Media are just trying to stir up a topic where none exists.
Remember, that the Media has already gone down this path a few times already. Usually before a substantial win. Or landslide!
Personally, I don't think the total number of people casting votes tomorrow is going to "Go through the roof".
Though I do believe that many people (Women, Hispanics, Blacks, etc) are not going to vote the way the Democrats want.
Jack.
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