Sorry for the vanity, but I don't understand this old canard!
but is it breaking news?
Just my take -- but I believe the general feeling is that there are more registered Dems than Republicans. Since Republicans (generally) vote more dependably, any increase means most of the people turning out are Dems.
For what it's worth.
It is an old wife's tale. Whether or not a large turnout helps anyone still depends on who votes and where. All polls show that Bush supporters back him more strongly than Kerry supporters back him. In the NBC poll, an absolutely astounding 97 percent of Republicans are backing Bush. Reagan never did that well. But Kerry does not have all Democrats behind him--he hovers in the high 80s. It is true that low turnouts are a little better for the GOP because they have a better track record of voting in some areas. But it can be the reverse also. The last big turnout was 1992 when many new Ross Perot backers came who never voted before or only infrequently. Bush is leading in polls under the high turnout model also. It is one thing to tell a pollster you are likely to vote and another thing to actually do it.