Posted on 10/15/2004 10:50:42 PM PDT by Libertarian Nationalist GOPr
The dolts over at DU keep talking about how late-deciders inevitably break heavily for the challenger. This is the one thing that has me worried. Otherwise, the nubmers appear to be shaping up pretty good.
Can anyone shed any light on this phenomenon? It is true that undecideds are almost certain to break heavily for Kerry? If so, we could be in some trouble in very close states.
??
The only true undecided's are the ones who don't care and don't want to be on a sinking ship. Generally if the election is lost to one they vote for the winner. If it is hopefull and they lean that way they vote that way. They stand on the fence post and fall whichever way the wind blows.
Okay. You had a great post! ;)
Yes, KESG has it right, the vote will pursue the approval rating.
More, Dales, believes the opposite is historically true, the undecideds break for the incumbent. Dales blog is very much worth your time and he frequently contributes to this forum. Dales also confirms the importance of the (Gallup) approval numbers.
Welcome aboard.
/john
I saw another "Another Democrat for Kerry" sticker today.
Of course, I live in "Give 'em hell Zell" Georgia.
lol, thanks.
You know what I meant. Another post-and-run troll.
;-)
Another Democrat for Kerry? What's the point of that sticker?
D'oh, I meant another Democrat for Bush.
Maybe I should go to bed? lol
I'm going to use that at work until human resources makes me stop. There are just TOO many good opportunities in my line of work.
/john
The trolls who pop over from their homebase at DUh usually just register here, post a stupid vanity like this one about something going on at DUh , then they scurry back. I will be surprised if there are any replies from 'Libertarian Nationalist GOPr'.
That'll leave a mark.
The "undecideds break for the challenger" is mostly true in local elections. In presidential elections, undecideds usually break for the incumbent.
Al Gore surged late in 2000 not because of undecideds breaking for him, but because of the DUI thing. It's estimated that as many as 4 million evangelicals stayed home on election day because of that.
This time around, the evangelicals are pumped for Bush. It seems unlikely the Dems could pull off an "October Surprise" because Bush is a known quantity and they've been throwing the kitchen sink at him for 4 years.
Hey, I can never get sleepy until about 1:30 a.m. anyway.
Besides...it's Friday. Sleep in on Saturday. :)
Undecideds, at this point, make their choice based on emotion. Kerry's lesbian comment did him in. The majority of undecideds are in the bag.
Not with 3 boys under 8!!
;-)
Awww, c'mon out and play. We'll be nice. Really.
What do you think?
I didn't realize how fast the replies come here. PLEASE....I'M as big a Bush supporter as there is. I look at the polls (probably too much) every day. And the reason I posed the question is that this is the one thing that has bothered me. Some here seem to think it isn't the case. I HOPE TO HELL THEY'RE RIGHT!!
In any event, I'll be phone banking for Bush and Phil Crane on November 1!
OK, Fair enough. I'll back off.
Welcome to FR.
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