[Lancey Howard]

No, but Gore was the incumbentt Vice President in an administration that was being propped up by a socialist mainstream media which had everybody convinced that the economy was in great shape. The race was, from the beginning, Gore's to lose. For all intents and purposes, Bush was the "challenger".

[kesg]

No, but Gore was the incumbentt Vice President in an administration that was being propped up by a socialist mainstream media which had everybody convinced that the economy was in great shape. The race was, from the beginning, Gore's to lose. For all intents and purposes, Bush was the "challenger".

I disagree. In open elections, the most important internal is the favorability rating, which is very similar to but not quite the same (and not quite as predictive) as job approval rating of a sitting President. In 2000, the DUI hit hard at Bush's favorability rating just before the election, turning what was then a 3-4 point lead for Bush into a dead even race in the space of a few days.

When, as here, an incumbent is running for re-election, the undecideds who give the President a favorable job approval rating (and who actually vote) will usually end up voting for him. And vice versa. I'm not making this up -- Gallup has been tracking this type of data for six decades, and they say that the job approval rating is the single best predictor of a President's support on election day.