RCP battleground states update not looking good (My title)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/6/04 | RCP

[DM1]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

looks like Kerry gained some ground in EV votes and in the battlegrounds

[gilliam]

ARG had Kerry +1 before, now they have him +2

So I say no change for that poll

[thepatriot1]

Whats so bad? W is leading in almost every one including some that Snore won in 2000. The only ones hes not winning are those that are stretches at best (WA, NJ, etc)

[finnman69]

Does this make you feel better?
10/6 Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 232 Bush 285

[GOP]

I guess you and I are the glass half empty and the glass half full types. When you look at the RealClear Politics site the battleground states are still leaning to Bush. Kerry only leads in states that Gore won. Bush is leading in all of his previous staets plus IOWA, WISCONSIN, and tied in several others.

[madison46]

How can Bush's internals look so good yet he barely has a lead outside the MoE?

Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but I think when rubber meets the road, voters will gut check to Bush...and the internals bear that out. Kerry is riding a one week bounce like his convention..only problem for us and Bush is Kerry getst another 90 minutes and better not get another shot in the arm. Having said that, a good job report on the day of the debate plus a good revision upward of the 18 month job report, which is usually the case, will help Bush inmeasurably. Regardless, the Bush in PA is the Bush tht needs to be in St. Louis. If it is, Kerry won't get the second wind and the bounce will go back to Bush.

My bigger question, is just who are these idiots? They ought not be voting if you ask me. JMHO

[xkaydet65]

polls ALWAYS tighten before an election!!

1964

1984

2004???

[KJacob]

The race is not over, but our path to victory still looks better than the RATs.

Great point! Imagine looking at the EC map from Kerry's perspective. I think the only Gore states that Bush will end up winning are Wisconsin and Iowa. (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Michigan are too optimistic for me). But I also feel that Bush will win all the states he won last time. A LOT of things have to go Kerry's way for him to win. It is possible but despite the recent news Bush is in a much stronger position.

[excalibur21]

I know Bush is going to win and I too believe it will be big, at least in the EV colledge. Neverthless, its still difficult not to wet my pajamas.

[Thrusher]

There won't be more people willing to pull the lever for Kerry on November 2, than there will for Bush

I agre with you on that point. But the tremendous amount of voter-fraud out there does worry me. The anti-Bush-nazis out there are so rabid they will do anything to steal this election, babbling their paranoid delusions about the 1 million black and elderly voters who were flayed alive on their way to the polls in 2000 by the evil Republicans in Florida (sponsored by Halliburton, of course).

[ontos-on]

Patience. There won't be more people willing to pull the lever for Kerry on November 2, than there will for Bush.

I agree with you. But I worry that there will be many people who will be willing to pull the lever for John Kerry many more times than once.

[madison46]

Battles still appear to be in Gore/Kerry/Blue territory, not Red area. Means we have chance of stealing some. Kerry has much smaller chance. Heck, even if he carries Gore states, he loses by more.

Still, Bush needs his PA self in St. Louis

[BFO]

274-264 will lead to the recount Armagedon.

[So Cal Rocket]

Why the gloom and doom... Bush is in much better position right now than he was in the 2000 election

Florida: Bush is up by 2.4%, won in 2000 by less than 0.1% = 2.3% GAIN

Ohio: Bush is up by 2.2%, won by 3.5% = 1.3% LOSS

PA: Bush is down by 1.2%, lost by 4.2% = 3.0% GAIN

Mich: Bush is down by 0.5%, lost by 5.2% = 4.7% GAIN

Mizzo: Bush is up by 5.5%, won by 3.3% = 2.2% GAIN

Wisc: Bush is up by 9.2%, lost by 0.2% = 9.4% GAIN

Minn: Bush is tied, lost by 2.4% = 2.4% GAIN

Iowa: Bush is up by 2.2%, lost by 0.2% = 2.4% GAIN

NH: Bush is up by 0.2%, won by 1.3% = 1.1% LOSS

NV: Bush is up by 3.2%, won by 6.3% = 3.1% LOSS

WV: Bush is up by 6.3%, won by 3.2% = 3.1% GAIN

NM: Bush is down by 1.3%, lost by 0.1% = 1.2% LOSS

OR: Bush is up by 2.7%, lost by 0.5% = 3.2% GAIN

CO: Bush is up by 6.0%, won by 8.4% = 2.4% GAIN

Maine: Bush is down by 1.0%, lost by 5.1% = 4.1% GAIN

Wash: Bush is down by 10.3%, lost by 5.6% = 4.7% LOSS

NJ: Bush is down by 5.4%, lost by 15.9% = 10.5% GAIN

He's only lost ground in 5 of the 17 battlegrounds...

[Thrusher]

Anything outside of a 50 point victory will mean recount Armageddon.

[camboianchristmas]

Does this make you feel better? 10/6 Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 232 Bush 285


No darn it, I want Kerry under 200!!!
Does that make me greedy:

[WildTurkey]

He has BUSH at 350 EV and sKerry with 178.

Projected to election day base on current trends.

[LtKerst]

I'll pull the lever for Kerry,...Hehh,Hehh,Hehh

[KJacob]

Yeah but he has Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, and Maine ann going for Bush.

[BonnieJ]

There has never been any real enthusiasm for Kerry. So he had one nice evening, 90 minutes of botoxed, hair-dyed, slicked-up glib-talk B.S. offense in a debate. NOW they all love him, are going to rush out and vote for him? I don't think so. They will forget that brief performance, and he is still the same boring, dull Kerry who does not connect with anyone. On the other side, we KNOW Pres. Bush. And his one "bad evening" does not doom him or make us forget his leadership or his excellent qualities...and spontaneous responses and debate were never really on that list. He can do well in the next 2 debates just being G.W.Bush, with a little rest and his usual inner fire of convictions and decisiveness.

[11th_VA]

i find this disconcerting

I'm finding this to be the longest four weeks of my life ...