Posted on 09/22/2004 4:25:00 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #32
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE SOLUTION NOW SOLID...ACTUALLY TO THE LEFT OF NHC TRACK...JEANNE WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER...
JEANNE is exiting the anticyclonic loop it has been in for a couple of days. All major models agree on a westward motion and a curve to the north at VT forecast plus five days. NHC has to maintain continuity with previous forecasts, so they admit their track is quite probably insufficiently far enough west. JEANNE will be pulled up into a trough between a HP center to its east and west at VT forecast plus four days.
So we're back to where we were around a week ago--the primary threat appears to be to North Carolina's Crystal Coast and Outer Banks.
Intensity is another issue, however. Dry air appears to be reaching JEANNE from the south and is inhibiting development. There is also shear over the system, which appears to be subsiding. Model guidance suggests a modest increase in strength through VT forecast plus three days, and then a gradual weakening.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 26.6N by 68.6W, or 525 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: S at 3 MPH. A gradual turn to the W is expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 968 MB or 28.59"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 250 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
In the news...
And in a bizzare new twist to Rathergate, the purveyor of the memos to CBS, Mr. Bill Burkett, plans to sue the network for defamation of character and libel.
Turns out that CBS was supposed to protect the anonymity of Mr. Burkett and "expend both time and money authenticating" the memos they were provided.
Also, Tony Coelho, the former manager of Algore's successful attempt at becoming "the former next President of the United States," stated that the Algore campaign was also verbally given this information, but felt there was "nothing there" so they didn't pursue it.
Also, Mary Mapes, a producer at CBS News, passed the name of Bill Burkett on to the Kerry Campaign, it has been learned.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Hi .. getting ready to leave for day. uncle 80 years old to get pacemaker. He was my dad brother/best friend. They golfed together twice a week. Think this is an outpatient procedure.
He has two kids here. One is weird & one is VERY wierd. Neither drive, hold jobs or have any stability. Both heavily medicated for emotional problems. Oldest son is in California.. he is pretty normal but very unavailable.
Think I will take Oliver to lake for a few hours while procedure is being done.
I didn't know any of that!
Sheesh. Is there any honesty among politicians and do the voters even care?
Oh my! IMPERIOUS SEXUALITY of that insane woman? WOW - ole Naomi shouldn't have breathed the same air as that other insane person, algore........his disease must have been contagious.
Yeah, I choked on that line too. LOL
I watch the local news from Portland on very rare occasions because of the liberal bias. I know that all of Oregon, with the exception of the I-5 corridor, are mostly conservative. In the past, our problem has been that the population is large in that corridor and we are out voted. Hopefully, this time around, we can bring Oregon into the column for President Bush!!!
OH NO! Look at the time! I must get off this computer and get ready to go to my volunteer job at the clinic. I'll be back later this afternoon....prayer for all in need!
Holy smokes, has someone broken into your computer?? That's scary.
Yes, I've read Fit for Life. In fact we have friends in CO who buy his health stuff, but boy is his stuff expensive.
I know just what you mean, Molly. When I need an early start, I'm always an hour short and the rest of the day, late. I'm usually an early riser, but sometimes....no way.
My family is the same way, IG. My Dad worked for the CCC for a few months, not long, cause fishing season came along, but those few months, I think it was 2 or 3, fixed the democrat party in a couple of my sisters minds as saviors of civilization. Yet both are very conservative, so much so, they squeek.
Prayers for you and your family, Dog.
Mornin' lysie!
WOO HOO!!!
Praying for you, your mom and dad Jim.
Also for you John.
Sounds like it is time to contact FOX !
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE FOLLOWING TRACK GUIDANCE, FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT THREAT BUILDING FOR NORTH CAROLINA...
JEANNE is now starting its westward journey, a trip likely to end upon the Crystal Coast.
There was some improvement in the structure of JEANNE this morning, but then the eye filled in with cloudiness. Nevertheless, the strength of JEANNE has increased, and it is now a category II hurricane.
Track guidance has JEANNE following around the edge of a deep-layered HP center that extends down to Bermuda. The clockwise flow from this anticyclone will slowly bring JEANNE toward the north and head it toward North Carolina. After landfall, a track scenario similar to ISABEL in 2003 is possible.
Whether JEANNE ends up being of the same strength as ISABEL was is still a question mark. Modeling has the storm making landfall potentially as a minor hurricane on Monday night, but that assumes that the current dry air over eastern CONUS wraps into the system inhibiting the release of the latent heat of condensation--the energy that makes hurricanes work. If this scenario doesn't occur, then JEANNE could reach the Crystal Coast with roughly the same intensity as ISABEL.
In addition, the scenario could have JEANNE moving as rapidly inland as ISABEL, giving the emergency managers of Virginia another workout this year. The saving grace is JEANNE is smaller than ISABEL was.
The estimated landfall point for JEANNE is Morehead City, NC.
Residents in Virginia and North Carolina should begin preparations for the arrival of JEANNE.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET (1500Z)
Location: 26.3N by 68.5W, or 530 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: S at 5 MPH. A gradual turn to the W is expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 100 MPH 1-minute sustained. No change in strength is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 968 MB or 28.59"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 280 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: 6 PM, Monday, September 27.
Anticipated Landfall Location: Morehead City, NC
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
DISCUSSION
...KARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...ICELAND WILL BE THREATENED...
KARL is losing the inner eyewall, meaning it is about finished with its recycle phase. Because the cyclone is starting to accelerate to the NNE and will be moving over cooler waters, strengthening is not likely. Indeed, KARL has already started a slow weakening.
KARL continues along track guidance.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET/AT (1500Z)
Location: 26.9N by 49.0W, or 1490 miles WSW of Fayal Island in the Azores.
Vector: N at 14 MPH. A turn to the NNE and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours.
Winds: 105 MPH 1-minute sustained. Strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 970 MB or 28.64"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 170 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 580 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in Iceland should monitor the progress of KARL.
Very good synopsis of the UN $/oil scam.
/
DISCUSSION
...LISA STILL DISORGANIZED AND IS WEAKENING...NHC BELIEVES THE NORTH HALF OF THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION...
LISA is being adversely affected by the disturbance following it. It will continue to have problems organizing for the next couple of days, and may be absorbed by the following system.
If it does not, then the disturbance, coupled with a LP trough forecast to dig southward north of LISA at VT forecast plus five days, will turn the storm toward the NW and away from land areas. If this scenario comes to pass, then LISA will also likely be a hurricane at VT forecast plus five days.
It is cautioned this package does not have a high confidence behind it as many things have to occur in a certain way, and there are significant possibilities that might not be so.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET/AT (1500Z)
Location: 13.9N by 41.3W, or 1165 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.
Vector: WSW at 6 MPH. A motion to the WSW or SW is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Winds: 50 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 1000 MB or 29.53"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 90 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of LISA is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
LISA is a threat only to shipping.
I'm home briefly....then I'm heading back.
Mom is in congestive heart failure.. they have her heavily sedated and on the ventilator... she is in Intensive Care..and will be staying in the hospital even after this crisis is over.....they want to replace the valve while she is there.
They will be weening her off the ventilator today........then we go from there...with the surgery.
Sorry if I'm rambling here..
Her 02 level in her blood is good.....but the fluid built up and she crashed.
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