DISCUSSION
...JEANNE FOLLOWING TRACK GUIDANCE, FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT THREAT BUILDING FOR NORTH CAROLINA...
JEANNE is now starting its westward journey, a trip likely to end upon the Crystal Coast.
There was some improvement in the structure of JEANNE this morning, but then the eye filled in with cloudiness. Nevertheless, the strength of JEANNE has increased, and it is now a category II hurricane.
Track guidance has JEANNE following around the edge of a deep-layered HP center that extends down to Bermuda. The clockwise flow from this anticyclone will slowly bring JEANNE toward the north and head it toward North Carolina. After landfall, a track scenario similar to ISABEL in 2003 is possible.
Whether JEANNE ends up being of the same strength as ISABEL was is still a question mark. Modeling has the storm making landfall potentially as a minor hurricane on Monday night, but that assumes that the current dry air over eastern CONUS wraps into the system inhibiting the release of the latent heat of condensation--the energy that makes hurricanes work. If this scenario doesn't occur, then JEANNE could reach the Crystal Coast with roughly the same intensity as ISABEL.
In addition, the scenario could have JEANNE moving as rapidly inland as ISABEL, giving the emergency managers of Virginia another workout this year. The saving grace is JEANNE is smaller than ISABEL was.
The estimated landfall point for JEANNE is Morehead City, NC.
Residents in Virginia and North Carolina should begin preparations for the arrival of JEANNE.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 11 AM ET (1500Z)
Location: 26.3N by 68.5W, or 530 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: S at 5 MPH. A gradual turn to the W is expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds: 100 MPH 1-minute sustained. No change in strength is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 968 MB or 28.59"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 90 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 280 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: 6 PM, Monday, September 27.
Anticipated Landfall Location: Morehead City, NC
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
