Posted on 09/21/2004 4:35:59 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nations' miltary who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #31
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE--A THREAT, NOT A THREAT, A THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM...NOW A HURRICANE...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE INTEREST WATCH AREA...
JEANNE has undergone explosive deepening of its central pressure, but the eye is still cloud covered and open to the south, indicating the presence of significant shear.
Yesterday, models came into good agreement. Today, models came into good disagreement.
The consensus--if it can really be called that--is what is being shown in the graphic. JEANNE will make a slow anticyclonic loop and then proceed westward. This is a very low confidence forecast, in the words of the NHC. But there's nothing better.
As stated earlier, JEANNE is in a relatively high shear environment. Several things could happen over the next several days. JEANNE could upwell significant amounts of cold water from staying in roughly the same spot for awhile, cutting off its "fuel," it could get sheared off by the SW flow over top of the cyclone, it could ingest the cold air from the shortwave to its north. Again, models are all over the place. NHC has prepared a forecast on the premise that none of these events will come to pass--the "safe" solution. It, like the path forecast, is of very low confidence.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.6N by 70.0W, or 445 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ENE at 6 MPH. Steering currents are falling apart, and JEANNE is expected to slowly turn to the E or SE later today.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 100 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
Top Bush advisors are said to be pushing for the removal of the moderator from the debate to be held at Arizona State University. The moderator is from CBS. The President has not made any indication he supports this notion.
USA Today is running a story that CBS arranged for a confidential source to talk to Joe Lockhart, an aide to John Kerry, after the network received the "unauthenticated" (forged, actually) documents.
The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]
Meanwhile, the GOP issued the following statement:
We accept CBS's apology for a breach of the journalistic standards that provide the American people confidence in news organizations, but some disturbing questions remain unanswered.
CBS has now answered questions about the authenticity of the documents but questions remain surrounding who created the documents, who provided them to CBS and if Senator Kerry's supporters, Party committee, or campaign played any role.
Did Bill Burkett, Democrat activist and Kerry campaign supporter, who passed information to the DNC, work with Kerry campaign surrogate Max Cleland? Did Bill Burkett's talks with ‘senior’ Kerry campaign officials include discussions of the now discredited documents? Was the launch of the Democrat National Committee's Operation Fortunate Son designed with knowledge of the faked forged memos? Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that no one at the DNC or Kerry campaign, ‘had anything to do with the preparations of the documents,’ but what about the distribution or dissemination?
In an effort to regain the trust of the American people CBS should not only investigate the process that led to the use of these documents but they should identify immediately those engaged in possible criminal activity who attempted to use a news organization to affect the outcome of a Presidential election in its closing days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
mowing today.
Think time
Saddam probably committed the best con job the world has ever, or probably will ever, see. He conned the experts in the intelligence agencies of the USA, France, Germany, Israel, and the UN experts.
The CBS thing is so small in comparison it's not even at the same radar resolution.
Got Bennett back on....
GOOD MORNING EVERYBODY!! I'm back with high speed wireless internet, YAY! Yesterday we drove to a campground in KS City area that has the highspeed, boy is it great.
Last report from the festival: Friday and Saturday were a blur of activities as usual. Saw some excellent talent both on stage and off. Stayed up WAY too late playing music. As usual.
So what was the "magic moment" this year? In addition to the stage areas and campground jams another location that provides a good deal of "entertainment" especially at night, is the gravel road that runs through the campground, . People congregate under the street lights in walk-up jams, others walk the road to listen, dance, sing along or otherwise participate. The area often becomes street theatre with costumes etc. We saw a fellow carrying around a tuba (sans mouthpiece and keys) that was somehow attached to a banjo so that presumably the sound of the banjo came out of the tuba horn. He called it a "sousa-jo". Weird stuff. Usually the road holds little interest for me other than the amusement aspect because frankly, sometimes those who've imbibed a bit too much frequent the area.
Our friends have a 9 year old son who is learning to play fiddle. He knows one tune, Angelina Baker, that he played over and over and over all weekend and stumbles a bit on the timing especially the 2nd part. Matthew is a bit precocious and decided he would go stand on the side of the road Saturday night and play his tune. Soon he had a crowd of about two dozen people standing around watching him. He seemed completely unphased by the crowd and just kept fiddlin'. In fact he played the tune the best I'd heard him play it all weekend, especially when the crowd started clapping in time. Some were dancing.
Then somebody walked up and put a dollar in Matthew's case. And somebody else did. And another and another. Before he quit the kid had $18 he'd picked up on the Walnut Valley road. It was the funniest, most special moment of the weekend. Matt is now a bona fide Road Toad, LOLOLOL!!
Sunday morning brought the usual clink-clink-clink sound of camps being taken down. By early afternoon our friends were starting to head out for home. Hugs, kisses, warm wishes, promises to come again next year and tears quickly wiped away. The usual Sunday balance of sadness at parting to a weekend filled with fun and excitement. It was an especially good year at Walnut Valley.
Oh, thought I'd include that those who saw our young guitar-playing friend compete in the National Contest all said they thought he'd nailed his pieces. But, as so often happens in competitions, he didn't make the final cut. So, a good experience for him and one that may spur him to keep trying.
It's wonderful to be posting to you all and FReeping today. Not sure how long we will be in KC.
Prairie
Good morning.
Savage did not answer the guys question. He said he needed to think about it further. I would like to email him our ideas.
I've noticed Sandy Berger's absence, but have no idea what is up.
I need to get my day started. If somebody finds out where Berger is hiding, please let me know.
I feel as though I may be coming down with a cold. I have a Cold-eze in my mouth as I type.
Oh no. There is a bad flu going around down here. Knocks you out for about a wk. TKD kids have passed it around for about a month now. :(
So I was careful to brush teeth often, those 2 days I used them continuously.
Last winter, I seemed to start a new pattern for catching colds....seems like this cold season, I'm continuing down the same road, so the Cold-Eze are an added weapon in my arsenal!! (To the echinacea...)
echinacea....Will be taking that, too, along with tons of water.
Toby, where are you? I have noticed your morning absence.
Ha. That's hilarious.
Knowing Toby, he's helping out his neighbors.
Good one.
All Freepers in this pix
That's neat.
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